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Weekend Box Office Predictions
June 19 - June 21, 2026
Published on June 18, 2026 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| One of this year's most anticipated films makes its way to theatres this weekend with the release of Disney and Pixar's Toy Story 5. The fifth theatrical Toy Story film was directed by Andrew Stanton and sees the return of vocal stars Tom Hanks, Tim Allen and Joan Cusack. Toy Story 5 is opening in a very wide 4,425 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. As has always been the case for the Toy Story films, critical reviews for Toy Story 5 have been especially strong. Back in June of 2019, Toy Story 4 opened with $120.91 million and went on to gross $434.04 million domestically. But anticipation is clearly much higher for Toy Story 5, thanks in part to the film's technology themed story, the lack of animated films in the marketplace as of late and a terrific, full scale marketing campaign, which has included Taylor Swift's soundtrack single "I Knew It, I Knew You." Toy Story 5 is likely to open higher than the $154.20 million start of Inside Out 2 back in June of 2024 (though Toy Story 5 is also likely to be more front loaded towards opening weekend) and could even approach the $182.69 million launch of Incredibles 2 (back in June of 2018), which currently represents the largest opening weekend ever for a Pixar film. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Toy Story 5 will debut with a massive $173.0 million this weekend. That would represent the third largest June opening weekend of all time, behind only 2015's Jurassic World and the mentioned Incredibles 2. |
| Last weekend, Universal's Disclosure Day opened in line with consensus expectations, with a solid first place start of $44.53 million. While the Steven Spielberg directed Disclosure Day has gone over pretty well with critics, the film's reception among audiences appears to be more mixed (though still respectable) with the film's B rating on CinemaScore in mind. Disclosure Day will take a hit this weekend from losing its IMAX screens to Toy Story 5, but at the same time, Disclosure Day and holdovers in general will get a boost this weekend from the dual holiday frame; Juneteenth on Friday and Father's Day on Sunday. And while the ongoing FIFA World Cup will provide continued competition, holdovers will get an additional boost from no longer having to deal with the NBA Finals this weekend. With all of that in mind, there is a bit more room for error with holdovers this weekend, but in general, holds should be better than last weekend, even with the addition of Toy Story 5 in the marketplace. Disclosure Day could decline a sizable, but respectable 52.8 percent this weekend to gross $21.0 million. |
| Meanwhile, Focus' Obsession continued to display its historic holding power last weekend by declining just 25.1 percent to gross $19.01 million. As of Wednesday, Obsession has grossed $198.65 million to date domestically and on Thursday the break-out horror film will surpass the $200 million domestic mark. For some of the reasons just mentioned with relation to Disclosure Day and the marketplace in general this weekend, Obsession will likely hold up at least a bit better this weekend than the film did last weekend. A slim decline of 13.2 percent from last weekend would transfer into a third place, sixth weekend take of $16.5 million for Obsession. |
| The rest of this weekend's top five is likely to be rounded out by additional holdovers. Last weekend Paramount's Scary Movie declined a much sharper than anticipated 73.9 percent to take third with $14.20 million, while A24's Backrooms decreased a sizable 56.1 percent to place in fourth with $11.52 million. Both films should hold up significantly better this weekend than they did last weekend, with Scary Movie in particular having potential to perform well on Juneteenth; though Backrooms will likely still the better percentage hold between the two films this weekend. Scary Movie could decline 42.3 percent from last weekend to take fourth place with $8.2 million and Backrooms could decrease 35.8 percent to follow in fifth place with $7.4 million. |
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Weekend predictions for the top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Toy Story 5 (Disney / Pixar) |
$173.0 M | $173.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Disclosure Day (Universal) |
$21.0 M | $82.3 M | -53% | 2 |
| 3 | Obsession (Focus) |
$16.5 M | $218.0 M | -13% | 6 |
| 4 | Scary Movie (Paramount) |
$8.2 M | $99.1 M | -42% | 3 |
| 5 | Backrooms (A24) |
$7.4 M | $175.1 M | -36% | 4 |
| 6 | Masters of the Universe (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$5.0 M | $56.3 M | -44% | 3 |
| 7 | The Death of Robin Hood (A24) |
$3.3 M | $3.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Leviticus (NEON) |
$3.2 M | $3.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney) |
$3.0 M | $170.8 M | -38% | 5 |
| 10 | Michael (Lionsgate) |
$2.5 M | $368.3 M | -41% | 9 |
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