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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 29 - May 31, 2026
Published on May 28, 2026 at 9:45PM Pacific |
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| Low-budget horror films are set to rule the domestic box office this weekend, as A24's much anticipated Backrooms joins Focus' break-out Obsession in the marketplace. Backrooms is director Kane Parsons's theatrical adaptation of Parsons's extremely popular YouTube video series of the same name. Starring in the theatrical version of Backrooms are Chiwetel Ejiofor and Renate Reinsve. Backrooms is playing in 3,442 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Backrooms is also receiving a high amount of average showtimes per location this weekend, thanks in part to the strong pre-sales for the film. Given the popularity of the Backrooms YouTube series, there has been thought that Backrooms would deliver the largest opening weekend ever for A24 (a record which is currently held by 2024's Civil War with $25.54 million). But as the film's release date has approached, anticipation for Backrooms (and expectations for the film) has continued to grow more and more (even in the midst of the ongoing breakout performance of Obsession). Backrooms appears set to drawn in both younger horror fans (think Five Nights at Freddy's - despite Backrooms being R rated) and (somewhat) older more typical fans of A24, especially given the strong critical reviews for Backrooms. While there is the potential for significant front-loading towards opening weekend, Backrooms could debut with a remarkable $70.0 million this weekend. |
| Even with the upcoming box office storm on the horizon that is Backrooms, Focus' Obsession hasn't shown any signs of slowing down anytime soon. On the heels of a stronger than expected $17.20 million opening weekend start, Obsession absolutely exploded last weekend by increasing an unheard of 39.3 percent over the 3-day frame to gross $23.96 million (Obsession grossed $31.98 million over the 4-day frame). Obsession has built up even more momentum during the midweek this week, as the film's $5.63 million Wednesday performance was 74.1 percent stronger than the previous Wednesday. Obviously, Obsession has struck a chord with horror fans, especially younger adults who wanted to be sure to catch Obsession before Backrooms entered the marketplace. With Backrooms appealing to similar (but younger) demographics as Obsession, there has to be some relative "slowing" for Obsession this weekend, but even with some slowing, the starting point heading into the weekend is so high that Obsession could very well still increase over last weekend's three-day performance, especially with the film adding 115 locations this weekend and also looking to see its average showtimes per location increase somewhat from last weekend. Demand is also so high for both Backrooms and Obsession this weekend that potential sellouts could lead to some spillover business for each film among horror fans. Obsession could increase 14.8 percent from last weekend to take in $27.5 million this weekend. That would move the film's domestic total past the $100 million domestic mark. |
| Disney's Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is coming off of respective three-day and four-day holiday starts of $81.67 million and $98.09 million. While that was lower than usual for a Star Wars film since Disney's acquisition of Star Wars, it was also largely expected, due in part to Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu being a theatrical continuation of The Mandalorian Disney+ series. Despite the film looking to be going over better with audiences than it has with critics (Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu received an A- rating on CinemaScore), Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is nonetheless showing signs of being quite front-loaded (some of that front-loading is due to the film appealing largely to pre-existing fans of The Madalorian series). The Mandalorian and Grogu will get a bit of help this weekend from continuing to play on IMAX screens. Back in 2018, Solo: A Star Wars Story declined 65.2 percent in its second weekend to gross $29.40 million. But with The Mandalorian and Grogu facing much tougher new competition in its second weekend than Solo did, there is a good chance The Mandalorian and Grogu will experience a slightly larger second weekend percentage decline than that of Solo. A sharp 67.6 percent decline from last weekend would give Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu a second weekend take of $26.5 million (and place Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu in a close race with Obsession for second place this weekend). |
| Meanwhile, Lionsgate's Michael should continue to have a significant presence at the box office in the film's sixth weekend of release. The blockbuster Michael Jackson music biopic declined by just 21.1 percent last weekend to gross $20.63 million over the 3-day frame (Michael grossed $27.10 million over the 4-day weekend). Regardless of the new competition the film has faced throughout its run, Michael continues to hold up well, week after week. And even with the anticipated break-out performance of Backrooms this weekend, with Backrooms expected to skew heavily towards younger adults (and even teens), there is the potential for Michael to continue to perform very well with older moviegoers this weekend. Michael could decline by just 27.3 percent from last weekend to take fourth place this weekend with $15.0 million. That would take the film past the $340 million domestic mark. |
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Weekend predictions for the top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Backrooms (A24) |
$70.0 M | $70.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Obsession (Focus) |
$27.5 M | $106.0 M | +15% | 3 |
| 3 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney) |
$26.5 M | $139.0 M | -68% | 2 |
| 4 | Michael (Lionsgate) |
$15.0 M | $343.4 M | -27% | 6 |
| 5 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Disney / 20th Century) |
$7.3 M | $210.8 M | -43% | 5 |
| 6 | The Breadwinner (Sony / TriStar) |
$7.2 M | $7.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | The Sheep Detectives (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$7.0 M | $57.1 M | -24% | 4 |
| 8 | Pressure (Focus) |
$5.5 M | $5.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Passenger (Paramount) |
$3.7 M | $16.5 M | -58% | 2 |
| 10 | Mortal Kombat II (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$2.3 M | $78.1 M | -62% | 4 |
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