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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 15 - May 17, 2026
Published on May 14, 2026 at 9:00PM Pacific |
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| After finishing in third place last weekend with a strong $37.90 million, Lionsgate's Michael will look to return to first place at the domestic box office this weekend (in the film's fourth weekend of release). Michael declined just 30.3 percent last weekend, which was an exceptional hold, especially given that the film lost its IMAX screens to Mortal Kombat II last weekend. Michael will be getting some of those IMAX screens and showtimes back this weekend, which could help lead to Michael holding up even better this weekend than last weekend (even with last Sunday's gross having been inflated by a strong Mother's Day performance). And of course, Michael will continue to benefit from strong word of mouth, repeat business and from the continued high level of buzz around the film. Look for Michael to decline only 26.1 percent from last weekend to lead the way this weekend with $28.0 million. That would bring the film's domestic total to just shy of the $285 million domestic mark. |
| Last weekend saw Disney and 20th Century's The Devil Wears Prada 2 pull off a minor upset to remain in first place with a second weekend gross of $41.60 million. The Devil Wears Prada 2 had a very nice second weekend hold for a film of its size, as it was down 45.8 percent, though as with Michael, The Devil Wears Prada 2 also benefited from a strong Mother's Day performance on Sunday. In comparison to Michael this week, midweek percentage holds from last week haven't been as strong for The Devil Wears Prada 2 as they have been for Michael, and The Devil Wears Prada 2 won't be holding onto its locations and showtimes per location to the same degree as Michael this weekend. With that in mind, The Devil Wears Prada 2 will likely have to settle for second place this weekend. The Devil Wears Prada 2 could decline a respectable 44.7 percent this weekend to take in $23.0 million. That would move the domestic total for The Devil Wears Prada 2 just past the $180 million domestic mark. |
| Meanwhile, it could prove to be a close race for third place this weekend between Warner Bros. and New Line's Mortal Kombat II (in its second weekend of release) and Focus' Obsession (in its first weekend of release). Between the history of prior Mortal Kombat films being very front-loaded and Obsession riding a wave of late buzz created in part by very strong critical reviews, Obsession may just have the slight edge for third place this weekend. Obsession, an R-rated horror film directed by Curry Barker and starring Michael Johnston and Inde Navarrette, is playing in 2,615 locations this weekend (which is up significantly from last weekend's estimate of 2,200 locations) and has Thursday previews shows beginning early at 2PM. Obsession also looks to be getting just enough average showtimes per location this weekend to be able to have a mini-breakout performance, though a larger breakout performance will be tougher given the scale of the film's launch this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Obsession will debut with $13.0 million this weekend, with the potential of the film holding up well after this weekend. |
| As for Warner Bros. and New Line's Mortal Kombat II, the action sequel is coming off of a second place debut of $38.50 million, which was towards the lower end of consensus pre-release expectations. The three previous Mortal Kombat theatrical films have all been relatively front-loaded for the eras they were released in, so it is unlikely that Mortal Kombat II will be able to reverse that trend this weekend, especially given the film's so-so B rating on CinemaScore. At the same time, Mortal Kombat II should at least be able to hold up a bit better this weekend than the 73.3 percent 2021's Mortal Kombat declined in its second weekend (to gross $6.23 million); a decline which was inflated from that film opening day-and-date (theatrically and via streaming). Mortal Kombat II could fall a sharp, but understandable 66.8 percent to place in fourth this weekend with $12.8 million. |
| Amazon MGM Studios' The Sheep Detectives should hold up much better in its second weekend of release. Last weekend the critically acclaimed comedy aimed at family audiences debuted in fourth place with a very promising $15.09 million. In addition to the film's tremendous critical reviews, The Sheep Detectives also looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. And after probably not getting enough showtimes per location last weekend, The Sheep Detectives will be helped out this weekend by holding onto a very high percentage of its showtimes per location from last weekend. The Sheep Detectives is coming off of an inflated Mother's Day performance on Sunday, but given everything going for the film, The Sheep Detectives is still likely to hold up pretty well this weekend even with that in mind. The Sheep Detectives could decline 37.0 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $9.5 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Michael (Lionsgate) |
$28.0 M | $284.6 M | -26% | 4 |
| 2 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Disney / 20th Century) |
$23.0 M | $180.8 M | -45% | 3 |
| 3 | Obsession (Focus) |
$13.0 M | $13.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Mortal Kombat II (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$12.8 M | $61.5 M | -67% | 2 |
| 5 | The Sheep Detectives (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$9.5 M | $29.8 M | -37% | 2 |
| 6 | In the Grey (Black Bear) |
$5.2 M | $5.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$4.6 M | $335.6 M | -30% | 9 |
| 8 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal) |
$4.4 M | $418.6 M | -34% | 7 |
| 9 | Top Gun / Top Gun: Maverick (re-issue) (Paramount) |
$3.3 M | $5.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 10 | Is God Is (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$3.0 M | $3.0 M | NEW | 1 |
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