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Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 24 - April 26, 2026
Published on April 23, 2026 at 8:15PM Pacific |
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| The summer box office season starts early this year with the release of Lionsgate's highly anticipated Michael this weekend. The music biopic about Michael Jackson was directed by Antoine Fuqua, while Michael Jackson's nephew Jaafar Jackson stars as Michael in the film. Michael will open in 3,955 locations this weekend, be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows starting very early at 12PM (the film also had early access shows on Wednesday). Nearly 17 years after Michael Jackson's death, Michael Jackson's large and passionate fanbase is clearly excited to watch Michael on the big screen. While critical reviews for the film have been largely negative, the current early 96 Popcornmeter score for the film among moviegoers on Rotten Tomatoes strongly suggests that the film will be going over far better with moviegoers than it has with critics. Michael is widely expected to deliver the largest opening weekend ever for a music biopic film, a record that is currently held by Straight Outta Compton with a debut of $60.20 million back in August of 2015. Michael was expensive, so it is important for the film to get off to a strong start this weekend, especially with the potential for fan-driven front-loading (regardless of how well the film goes over with moviegoers). Michael is expected to perform even stronger internationally (where the film is being handled by Universal), as Michael Jackson tended to be even more popular outside of North America, especially in his later years. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Michael will take first place at the domestic box office this weekend with a smooth $82.0 million debut. That would be just ahead of the $80.51 million start of Project Hail Mary last month. |
| After leading the box office for the past three weeks, Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will obviously fall out of first place this weekend. Last weekend, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie had a so-so hold by declining 46.4 percent to gross $36.50 million. However, the film did begin to display stronger holding power on Saturday and Sunday. But with Michael entering the marketplace this weekend, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is unlikely to stabilize yet again this weekend, especially with the Super Mario Bros. losing the remainder of their IMAX showtimes (and a sizable amount of non-IMAX showtimes) to fellow 80s icon Michael Jackson. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could see a hold similar to last weekend, as the animated blockbuster sequel could decline a sizable, but understandable 47.9 percent to place in second with $19.0 million. |
| Amazon MGM Studios' Project Hail Mary is coming off of an absolutely terrific hold last weekend, which saw the critically acclaimed sci-fi blockbuster decline by only 15.0 percent to place in second with $20.51 million. Last weekend's hold was no doubt inflated a bit from moviegoers who wanted to catch Project Hail Mary (especially in IMAX) before Michael entered the marketplace this weekend. With Michael also taking the remainder of IMAX showtimes from Project Hail Mary this weekend, Project Hail Mary obviously won't be able to duplicate its hold from last weekend, but the film is still likely to have another strong hold this weekend (especially when taking into account the situation at the theatrical marketplace this weekend). Look for Project Hail Mary to decrease by 31.8 percent to take third place this weekend with $14.0 million. That would move the film's domestic total past the $300 million domestic mark. |
| Last weekend saw Warner Bros. and New Line's Lee Cronin's The Mummy debut in third place with $13.52 million. Lee Cronin's The Mummy received a lackluster C+ rating on CinemaScore, but at the same time, with the exception on Wednesday, the film's initial daily holds have been respectable and suggest that the film may be going over at least somewhat better with audiences than the film's CinemaScore rating would indicate. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Lee Cronin's The Mummy will decline a sizable 54.1 percent to take fourth place this weekend with $6.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Michael (Lionsgate) |
$82.0 M | $82.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal) |
$19.0 M | $384.3 M | -48% | 4 |
| 3 | Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$14.0 M | $306.3 M | -32% | 6 |
| 4 | Lee Cronin's The Mummy (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$6.2 M | $24.0 M | -54% | 2 |
| 5 | Mother Mary (A24) |
$2.8 M | $3.0 M | +1,566% | 2 |
| 6 | The Drama (A24) |
$2.5 M | $44.5 M | -48% | 4 |
| 7 | Hoppers (Disney / Pixar) |
$2.1 M | $160.6 M | -31% | 8 |
| 8 | You, Me & Tuscany (Universal) |
$1.8 M | $17.9 M | -54% | 3 |
| 9 | Over Your Dead Body (IFC / XYZ Films) |
$1.7 M | $1.7 M | NEW | 1 |
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