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Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 17 - April 19, 2026
Published on April 16, 2026 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will look to lead the domestic box office for a third consecutive frame this weekend. However, the blockbuster computer animated sequel is likely to continue to fall off faster than its predecessor, 2023's The Super Mario Bros. Movie. After declining 36.7 percent in its second weekend to gross $92.35 million, The Super Mario Bros. Movie decreased a similar 35.1 percent in its third weekend to take in $59.93 million. Last weekend The Super Mario Galaxy Movie fell by 48.3 percent to gross $68.08 million in its second frame and it appears that this weekend the film will experience a similar decline to last weekend's decline, especially since The Super Mario Galaxy Movie hasn't been able to show signs of stabilizing during the midweek this week. A year ago at this time, fellow video game based blockbuster A Minecraft Movie decreased 48.4 percent in its third weekend to gross $40.50 million (after declining 51.8 percent to gross $78.50 million in its second weekend), so there is prescient for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to not stabilize yet this weekend. Look for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to decline a reasonable 47.1 percent from last weekend to take in $36.0 million. That would move the film's domestic total past the $350 million domestic mark. |
| Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios' Project Hail Mary is coming off of a terrific hold, as last weekend the sci-fi blockbuster decreased by just 23.9 percent to hold steady in second place with $24.14 million. In addition to the film's very strong word of mouth, Project Hail Mary was helped out last weekend by getting back some IMAX showtimes and by holding onto a very high percentage of its non-IMAX showtimes. This weekend Project Hail Mary will continue to have IMAX showtimes (IMAX screenings will be split this weekend between Project Hail Mary, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Lee Cronin's The Mummy) and will be holding onto a very high percentage of its non-IMAX showtimes once again. With all of that in mind, Project Hail Mary will have a very strong chance of duplicating last weekend's percentage hold and may even hold up a bit better this weekend than last weekend. A decline of just 21.3 percent would transfer into a second place, fifth weekend haul of $19.0 million for Project Hail Mary. |
| Entering the marketplace this weekend is Warner Bros. and New Line's Lee Cronin's The Mummy. The R-rated reimagining of The Mummy franchise was directed by Lee Cronin and stars Jack Reynor, Laia Costa, May Calamawy and Natalie Grace. Lee Cronin's The Mummy is playing in 3,304 locations this weekend, will be splitting IMAX screens with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary, and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Critical reviews for Lee Cronin's The Mummy have been mixed. Three years ago at this time Warner Bros. released Evil Dead Rise, which was also directed by Lee Cronin and opened with a healthy $24.50 million. Lee Cronin's The Mummy isn't expected to open that high, but the film should at least open higher than the recent $7.05 million launch of Warner Bros.'s recent Bride of Frankenstein reimagining, The Bride! Another factor that could limit box office potential for Lee Cronin's The Mummy is that fans of The Mummy franchise don't seem all that interested in (another) reimagining of the franchise, especially when an untitled fourth The Mummy film starring Brendan Fraser is already scheduled for 2028. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a third place start of $16.5 million for Lee Cronin's The Mummy this weekend. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, A24's The Drama and Universal's You, Me & Tuscany should take fourth and fifth place respectively. Last weekend The Drama declined just 39.4 percent to take third place with an estimated $8.71 million, while You, Me & Tuscany debuted in fourth place with a modest $7.75 million. With the film's second weekend out of the way, The Drama is likely to hold up even better this weekend than the film did last weekend. You, Me & Tuscany looks to be going over very well with audiences (the film received an A- rating on CinemaScore), which could help the film have a similar second weekend decline as The Drama last weekend. The Drama could decrease 33.4 percent this weekend to take in $5.8 million and You, Me & Tuscany could decline a solid 42.0 percent to gross $4.5 million for the frame. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal) |
$36.0 M | $356.3 M | -47% | 3 |
| 2 | Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$19.0 M | $283.6 M | -21% | 5 |
| 3 | Lee Cronin's The Mummy (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$16.5 M | $16.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Drama (A24) |
$5.8 M | $40.5 M | -33% | 3 |
| 5 | You, Me & Tuscany (Universal) |
$4.5 M | $15.0 M | -42% | 2 |
| 6 | Hoppers (Disney / Pixar) |
$3.1 M | $161.3 M | -26% | 7 |
| 7 | Normal (Magnolia Pictures) |
$2.4 M | $2.4 M | NEW | 1 |
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