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Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 10 - April 12, 2026
Published on April 9, 2026 at 7:45PM Pacific |
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| Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is set to comfortably lead the domestic box office for a second consecutive frame. Last weekend saw the blockbuster computer animated sequel open in line with lofty consensus expectations with respective three-day weekend and five-day starts of $131.70 million and $190.82 million. Thus far, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is displaying more initial front-loading than 2023's The Super Mario Bros. Movie did, which isn't surprising given that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is a sequel and hasn't gone over quite as well as The Super Mario Bros. Movie did. At the same time, initial holds for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have still been solid when looking at them in more of a vacuum and there are also early signals that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie may be playing a bit more weekend heavy than The Super Mario Bros. Movie did. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will also be helped out this weekend by holding onto most of its IMAX showtimes and by no new family films entering the marketplace this weekend. Back in April of 2023, The Super Mario Bros. Movie declined just 36.9 percent in its second weekend to gross an exceptional $92.35 million. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should experience a sharper decline, but is also likely to hold up reasonably well with all factors considered. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will decline 44.6 percent this weekend to take in $73.0 million. That would move the film's domestic total past the $300 million domestic mark. |
| Last weekend saw Amazon MGM Studios' Project Hail Mary decline 41.3 percent to claim second place with $31.72 million. The film's hold last weekend was obviously more impressive than it appears, given the new competition from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and that Project Hail Mary lost its IMAX screens and showtimes to The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. However, Project Hail Mary will be getting a single daily late evening IMAX screening back at many IMAX locations this weekend and the film will also be holding onto a very high percentage of its non-IMAX screens from last weekend. With the addition of the film's continued strong word of mouth, odds are strong that Project Hail Mary will have a terrific hold this weekend (let's also not forget that the film declined just 32.8 percent in its second weekend). Project Hail Mary could decline just 25.9 percent this weekend to hold steady in second place with $23.5 million. That would take the film's domestic total past the $250 million domestic mark. |
| This weekend's highest profile new wide release is Universal's You, Me & Tuscany. The Kat Coiro directed romantic comedy from Will Packer Productions stars Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page. You, Me & Tuscany is playing in 3,151 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. On the average, critical reviews for You, Me & Tuscany have been solid and it wouldn't be surprising if the film goes over even better with audiences than it has with critics. While there is potential for You, Me & Tuscany to hold up well after this weekend, as a non-sequel there likely won't be a huge rush-out to see the film this weekend and opening just one week after The Drama entered the marketplace will likely limit opening weekend potential for You, Me & Tuscany at least somewhat as well. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that You, Me & Tuscany will take third place this weekend with a promising launch of $11.9 million. |
| Speaking of A24's The Drama, last weekend the romantic dark comedy starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened on the high end of consensus expectations with an estimated $14.38 million. And while official midweek daily grosses have yet to be reported for The Drama this week, unofficial industry estimates have the film performing very nicely during the midweek (though The Drama is likely to be relatively midweek heavy throughout its run). The Drama also earned a B rating on CinemaScore, which suggests that the film hasn't been as divisive among moviegoers as some feared it could have been. Back in May of 2024, Challengers declined 49.4 percent in its second weekend to gross $7.59 million, and that was with the film losing IMAX screens and facing stronger new competition from The Fall Guy. With all factors considered, it seems likely that The Drama will have a significantly stronger second weekend hold than Challengers did. Look for The Drama to decline a very solid 39.5 percent this weekend to take fourth place with $8.7 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 5 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal) |
$73.0 M | $312.0 M | -45% | 2 |
| 2 | Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$23.5 M | $255.4 M | -26% | 4 |
| 3 | You, Me & Tuscany (Universal) |
$11.9 M | $11.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Drama (A24) |
$8.7 M | $30.8 M | -40% | 2 |
| 5 | Hoppers (Disney / Pixar) |
$4.2 M | $157.2 M | -28% | 6 |
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