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Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 3 - April 5, 2026
Published on April 1, 2026 at 8:45PM Pacific |
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| Building upon the ongoing success of Project Hail Mary, the spring box office will look to continue to soar this weekend with the release of Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's highly anticipated The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. The first follow-up to 2023's The Super Mario Bros. Movie opened today (Wednesday) in 3,821 locations and will be playing in 4,252 locations over the weekend (The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will also be playing on IMAX screens). The Super Mario Galaxy Movie sees the return of The Super Mario Bros. Movie directors Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic, as well as vocal cast members Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black and Keegan-Michael Key. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie also sees the addition of Yoshi and Rosalina this time around, voiced respectively by Donald Glover and Brie Larson. Critical reviews for the film have been mostly negative, and more negative than reviews for The Super Mario Bros. Movie were, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should be critic-proof, at least as far as the film's five-day launch goes. Last time around The Super Mario Bros. Movie had a massive five-day Easter weekend launch of $204.63 million, which included $58.27 million on Wednesday and Thursday and $146.36 million over the traditional three-day weekend. The feeling this time around is that as a sequel (and with the film potentially not going over quite as well as its predecessor did) The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will be more midweek heavy than The Super Mario Bros. Movie was. With that in mind, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could have a slightly larger two-day midweek start than The Super Mario Bros. Movie had, but may not be quite as strong over the three-day weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and five-day debuts of $135.0 million and $196.0 million for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie over Easter weekend. |
| Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios' Project Hail Mary will look to have a continued major presence at the box office this weekend, despite the critically acclaimed film losing its IMAX screens to The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Last weekend Project Hail Mary exceeded already lofty second weekend expectations by declining just 32.8 percent to gross $54.06 million. Given the loss of IMAX screens and significant loss of traditional showtimes from last weekend, it would be extremely difficult for Project Hail Mary to hold up as well this weekend as the film did last weekend. But at the same time, there is clearly still significant demand for Project Hail Mary, which should help ease the negative effect of the loss of IMAX screens, as will the holiday weekend. Project Hail Mary could also get a small additional boost this weekend from the segment of adult moviegoers who decide to pass on (or at least wait for) The Super Mario Galaxy Movie this time around. Look for Project Hail Mary to decline 39.0 percent from last weekend to place in second this weekend with $33.0 million. That would represent a really strong hold given the circumstances in the theatrical marketplace this weekend and likely move the film's domestic total past the $220 million domestic mark. |
| Also opening in theatres this weekend is A24's The Drama. The romantic dark comedy was directed by Kristoffer Borgli and stars Zendaya and Robert Pattinson. Critical reviews for The Drama have been fairly strong and the film will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Fans of Zendaya and Robert Pattinson should allow for The Drama to get off to a solid start this weekend and the strong critical reviews should help as well. Comparisons for The Drama include Amazon MGM Studios' Challengers, which opened with $15.01 million in April of 2024 (and also starred Zendaya) and A24's Materialists, which opened with $11.34 million last June. One thing to watch with The Drama this weekend is that the film could prove to be extremely front-loaded towards opening day (even if it goes over well with audiences), due to the combination of Thursday previews, Good Friday and the film likely being Friday heavy to begin with. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a promising third place start of $13.5 million for The Drama this weekend. |
| Last weekend Disney's Hoppers declined 31.7 percent to hold steady in second place with $12.16 million. While that was obviously a solid hold, the film didn't hold up quite as well as expected given the pre-Super Mario Galaxy fame. With the launch of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Hoppers is obviously expected to decline more this weekend than it did last weekend, but at the same time, Hoppers will be helped out by Good Friday and from not taking a huge showtimes hit this weekend (due in part to the film already being several weeks into its run). Hoppers could decline 43.2 percent from last weekend to land in fourth this weekend with $6.9 million. That would move the film's total domestic gross past the $150 million domestic mark. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal) |
$135.0 M | $196.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$33.0 M | $221.5 M | -39% | 3 |
| 3 | The Drama (A24) |
$13.5 M | $13.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Hoppers (Disney / Pixar) |
$6.9 M | $151.0 M | -43% | 5 |
| 5 | Dhurandhar The Revenge (Moviegoers Entertainment) |
$2.2 M | $26.6 M | -52% | 3 |
| 6 | They Will Kill You (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$2.1 M | $8.9 M | -58% | 2 |
| 7 | A Great Awakening (Roadside) |
$2.0 M | $2.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Reminders of Him (Universal) |
$1.9 M | $45.1 M | -60% | 4 |
| 9 | Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (Disney / Searchlight) |
$1.8 M | $20.1 M | -56% | 3 |
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