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Weekend Box Office Predictions
January 23 - January 25, 2026
Published on January 22, 2026 at 8:15PM Pacific |
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| In what is expected to be a very slow overall weekend at the box office, Amazon MGM Studios' Mercy will look to end the five-week reign of Disney and 20th Century's Avatar: Fire and Ash at the top of the domestic box office. Avatar: Fire and Ash had been widely expected to finish in second place last weekend, but was ultimately able to hang onto first place for another week after the significantly slower than expected start of Sony's 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple. A massive winter storm, which is expected to affect large portions of the eastern half of the United States and Sunday's NFL Conference Championship games are sure to slow this weekend's overall box office even further. |
| Amazon MGM Studios' Mercy is a sci-fi action thriller directed by Timur Bekmambetov, which stars Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson. Mercy is playing in 3,007 locations this weekend, will be sharing IMAX screens with Avatar: Fire and Ash (though it looks like Mercy will be getting the bulk of IMAX showtimes this weekend) and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Despite opening in a very open marketplace, there looks to be very little pre-release buzz around Mercy. A marketing campaign that hasn't made the film stand out from similar films over the years and largely poor critical reviews won't help matters for Mercy this weekend. Still, with such a low bar for first place at the domestic box office this weekend, Mercy will likely be able to outpace Avatar: Fire and Ash this weekend (especially with the IMAX boost). On a positive note for Mercy, the film carries a lower-than-usual price-tag for a higher profile sci-fi film. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Mercy will debut with $10.4 million this weekend. |
| Disney's pair of blockbuster holiday season holdovers; Avatar: Fire and Ash and Zootopia 2, are likely to take second and third place this weekend. Over last weekend's three-day frame, Avatar: Fire and Ash declined 32.6 percent to gross $14.49 million, while Zootopia 2 was down a very slim 8.3 percent to gross $9.17 million (respective four-day weekend grosses for Avatar: Fire and Ash and Zootopia 2 were $17.93 million and $12.84 million). For the reasons already discussed and because of last weekend's holds having been inflated by the Martin Luther King holiday frame, Avatar: Fire and Ash and Zootopia 2 are both likely to experience larger percentage declines this weekend than they did last weekend. Avatar: Fire and Ash will also have to deal with losing most of its IMAX showtimes this weekend, though the film does look to be keeping some showtimes and also looks to be holding onto a very high percentage of its non-IMAX showtimes from last weekend. Look for Avatar: Fire and Ash to decline 44.8 percent to gross $8.0 million and for Zootopia 2 to decrease by a very solid 32.4 percent to gross $6.2 million. That would move Zootopia 2 past the $400 million domestic mark and Avatar: Fire and Ash to just shy of $380 million domestically. |
| Further down on this weekend's chart, despite entering its sixth week of release, Lionsgate's The Housemaid is still likely to outpace 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (in its second weekend of release) for fourth place this weekend. Last weekend, The Housemaid declined just 21.7 percent over the three-day frame to take fourth place with $8.54 million. While The Housemaid looks like it may finally experience some relative slowing this weekend, the break-out film could still have a solid hold this weekend by declining 34.5 percent to gross $5.6 million. As for 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, the horror sequel is coming off of lackluster respective three-day and four-day openings of $12.52 million and $14.42 million. Although 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving a very healthy A- rating on CinemaScore, the film's daily holds thus far still suggest that the film will be experiencing significant front-loading. With that said, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple may be able to hold up slightly better than 28 Years Later did in its second weekend last June (when that film declined a sharp 67.5 percent to gross $9.75 million). 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple could decline a still sharp 63.3 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $4.6 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Mercy (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$10.4 M | $10.4 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Avatar: Fire and Ash (Disney / 20th Century) |
$8.0 M | $379.4 M | -45% | 6 |
| 3 | Zootopia 2 (Disney) |
$6.2 M | $401.9 M | -32% | 9 |
| 4 | The Housemaid (Lionsgate) |
$5.6 M | $116.8 M | -34% | 6 |
| 5 | 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (Sony / Columbia) |
$4.6 M | $21.8 M | -63% | 2 |
| 6 | Marty Supreme (A24) |
$4.3 M | $87.0 M | -22% | 6 |
| 7 | The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (re-issue) (Fathom Entertainment / Warner Bros.) |
$4.0 M | $13.8 M | -51% | 2 |
| 8 | Return to Silent Hill (Cineverse / Iconic Events Releasing) |
$2.6 M | $2.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Primate (Paramount) |
$2.3 M | $24.2 M | -54% | 3 |
| 10 | Hamnet (Focus) |
$2.2 M | $17.9 M | +63% | 9 |
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