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Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 10 - October 12, 2025
Published on October 9, 2025 at 8:00PM Pacific |
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| Nearly 15 years after the release of 2010's Tron: Legacy, Disney's Tron: Ares arrives in theatres this weekend. Tron: Ares, the third film in the Tron sci-fi series, was directed by Joachim Rønning and stars Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith and Jeff Bridges. Tron: Ares is playing in 4,000 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM (the film also had select early access screenings on Wednesday). Tron: Legacy, which had a pre-Christmas December opening, debuted with $44.03 million and went on to gross a very solid $172.06 million domestically. However, a sequel to the original Tron (the original was released way back in 1982) was something that moviegoers long seemed to truly want, whereas it feels like there has been much less excitement about a potential sequel to Tron: Legacy over the past 15 years. Mixed critical reviews aren't going to help matters for Tron: Ares, especially since this feels like the type of high-profile film that many moviegoers may be on the fence about catching in theatres. With that said, there will obviously still be some Tron fans who want to catch Tron: Ares in theatres. Last weekend, AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl (which is no longer playing in theatres) debuted with $34.06 million. While aimed at a different target audience, Tron: Ares could very well be headed for a similar opening weekend performance this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Tron: Ares will open in first place this weekend with a so-so $34.5 million. |
| Last weekend saw Warner Bros.'s One Battle After Another have a respectable second weekend hold by declining 50.0 percent to place in second with $11.00 million. One Battle After Another has continued to stabilize during the midweek this week (the film's Wednesday performance was down 41.1 percent from the previous Wednesday) and the Paul Thomas Anderson directed action thriller starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn should continue to benefit this weekend from its exceptional critical reviews, strong word of mouth and continued awards season buzz. One Battle After Another (and holdovers in general this weekend) will also be holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend, thanks in part to both Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl and the re-issue of Avatar: The Way of Water having already left theatres. On a negative note for the film, One Battle After Another will have to deal with losing its IMAX showtimes to Tron: Ares this weekend. One Battle After Another could decline a very solid 31.8 percent this weekend to hold steady in second place with $7.5 million. |
| This weekend also sees the wide release of Paramount and Miramax's Roofman. The R-rated comedy based on a true story, was directed by Derek Cianfrance, stars Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst, and also features Peter Dinklage. Roofman is playing in 3,362 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows starting at 7PM. Critical reviews for Roofman have been strong, but at the same time, it feels like there is less demand for Roofman than usual for a Tatum led film. In August of last year, the Tatum led Blink Twice opened with $7.30 million and went on to gross $23.09 million domestically. Roofman could very well be in store for a similar performance of its own. Look for Roofman to debut in third place this weekend with $7.0 million. |
| Receiving more modest wide launches this weekend are both Sony / AFFIRM's Soul on Fire and Roadside Attractions and LD Entertainment's Kiss of the Spider Woman. Soul on Fire, a drama based on the life of John O'Leary, was directed by Sean McNamara and stars, Joel Courtney, John Corbett and William H. Macy. Kiss of the Spider Woman, a theatrical adaptation of the stage musical of the same name, was directed by Bill Condon and stars Diego Luna, Tonatiuh and Jennifer Lopez. Soul on Fire is opening in 1,720 locations this weekend; while Kiss of the Spider Woman is opening in 1,330 locations (the decision to release Kiss of the Spider Woman semi-wide as opposed to going with a platform launch has seemed a bit surprising). The two films could perform similarly this weekend, with Soul on Fire potentially having the slight edge, thanks in part to having the larger location count between the two films. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective opening weekends of $3.6 million for Soul on Fire and $3.4 million for Kiss of the Spider Woman. |
| Both of those films could find themselves in the same neighborhood as Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie this weekend. Last weekend, Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie fell a sharp 61.1 percent to land in fourth place with $5.32 million, but the family film is likely to stabilize in a big way this weekend, especially with Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl no longer in the marketplace. Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie could decline just 28.6 percent this weekend to gross $3.8 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Tron: Ares (Disney) |
$34.5 M | $34.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) |
$7.5 M | $55.3 M | -32% | 3 |
| 3 | Roofman (Paramount / Miramax) |
$7.0 M | $7.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$3.8 M | $26.9 M | -29% | 3 |
| 5 | Soul on Fire (Sony / AFFIRM) |
$3.6 M | $3.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside / LD Entertainment) |
$3.4 M | $3.4 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | The Conjuring: Last Rites (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$2.9 M | $172.4 M | -30% | 6 |
| 8 | The Smashing Machine (A24) |
$2.7 M | $10.6 M | -55% | 2 |
| 9 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Sony / Crunchyroll) |
$2.0 M | $128.4 M | -44% | 5 |
| 10 | Good Boy (IFC / Shudder) |
$1.8 M | $5.3 M | -23% | 2 |
| 11 | The Strangers: Chapter 2 (Lionsgate) |
$1.7 M | $13.6 M | -40% | 3 |
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