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Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 3 - October 5, 2025
Published on October 2, 2025 at 7:30PM Pacific |
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| What would have been an especially slow weekend at the box office will be given some much needed life with AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. The music film starring Taylor Swift is a companion piece to Swift's new album, The Life of a Showgirl, which is also being released on Friday, October 3. Despite not being announced until last month, a sizable amount of Swift's fans will no doubt be catching The Official Release Party of a Showgirl in theatres this weekend. And for those wanting to see the film in theatres, they will have to do so this weekend, as Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl is only scheduled to play for three days (this Friday through Sunday). Understandably, Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl isn't expected to come anywhere close to the $93.22 million debut of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film back in October of 2023, but delivering just a fraction of that performance would lead to Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl having an impressive performance of its own this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl will easily take first place this weekend with a $39.0 million haul. |
| Meanwhile, it could prove to be a close race for second place this weekend between Warner Bros.'s One Battle After Another (in its second weekend of release) and A24's The Smashing Machine (in its first weekend of release). Last weekend One Battle After Another debuted in first place with $22.00 million, which was in line with consensus expectations. The critically acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson directed action thriller starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn also looks to be going over very well with audiences after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore. Midweek grosses this week have been encouraging for One Battle After Another, though the film could also prove to be relatively midweek heavy in general. One Battle After Another will continue to play on IMAX screens this weekend, with some IMAX showtimes going to The Smashing Machine and the re-issue of Avatar: The Way of Water. Back in October of 2023, Killers of the Flower Moon declined 59.9 percent in its second weekend to gross $9.32 million, but it appears likely that One Battle After Another will have a stronger second weekend percentage hold this weekend. One Battle After Another could decline a respectable 50.0 percent to gross $11.0 million this weekend. |
| A24's The Smashing Machine is a sports drama based on the life of MMA fighter Mark Kerr. The Benny Safdie directed film stars Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt. The Smashing Machine is playing in 3,345 locations this weekend, is playing on select IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. On the average, critical reviews for The Smashing Machine have been good, but not great. There had been hope that Dwayne Johnson's performance as Mark Kerr would have some breakout appeal with Johnson's fanbase, but that doesn't appear like it will be the case after all. At the same time, The Smashing Machine could still deliver a decent opening weekend with the box office history of A24 in mind. BoxOfficReport is predicting that The Smashing Machine will start out with $10.0 million this weekend. |
| Last weekend Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie debuted in second place with $13.70 million. Although Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore, between some opening weekend rush-out from being based on a Netflix series and facing significant new competition for female moviegoers from Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, it will be difficult for Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie to hold up well this weekend. Back in February of this year, fellow Universal / DreamWorks Animation film Dog Man declined 61.6 percent in its second weekend of release (to gross $13.81 million) and Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie could experience a fairly similar second weekend percentage decline this weekend. Look for Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie to decrease a sizable 57.7 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $5.8 million. |
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Weekend predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl (AMC Theatres Distribution) |
$39.0 M | $39.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) |
$11.0 M | $42.9 M | -50% | 2 |
| 3 | The Smashing Machine (A24) |
$10.0 M | $10.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$5.8 M | $22.0 M | -58% | 2 |
| 5 | The Conjuring: Last Rites (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$3.9 M | $167.6 M | -42% | 5 |
| 6 | Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle (Sony / Crunchyroll) |
$3.6 M | $124.7 M | -49% | 4 |
| 7 | Avatar: The Way of Water (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$3.3 M | $3.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Good Boy (IFC / Shudder) |
$3.2 M | $3.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | The Strangers: Chapter 2 (Lionsgate) |
$2.5 M | $10.3 M | -57% | 2 |
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