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Weekend Box Office Predictions
July 4 - July 6, 2025
Predictions published on July 2, 2025 at 7:00PM Pacific |
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| Universal's Jurassic World Rebirth is set to rule the box office over Independence Day weekend upon opening in theatres today (Wednesday). The seventh film in the Jurassic World franchise was directed by Gareth Edwards and features a new cast that includes Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey and Rupert Friend. The hope is that the film's new cast will help prevent Jurassic World Rebirth from falling too sharply from 2022's Jurassic World Dominion, which opened with $145.08 million over three days and went on to gross $376.85 million domestically. Jurassic World Rebirth is playing in 4,063 locations beginning on Wednesday and will see that location count increase to 4,308 locations on Friday. Jurassic World Rebirth didn't have Tuesday preview shows, though initial shows did start at midnight on Wednesday. With F1 The Movie holding onto IMAX screens this weekend, Jurassic World Rebirth isn't playing on IMAX screens, but Jurassic World Rebirth will be playing on other non-IMAX premium large format screens. Critical reviews for Jurassic World Rebirth have been mixed, but the film is likely to be critic proof, at least over the holiday frame. Last year, Universal's Despicable Me 4 had a five-day start of $122.61 million over Independence Day weekend. While Jurassic World Rebirth is likely to be more front-loaded towards opening weekend than Despicable Me 4 was, the film could open a bit higher than Despicable Me 4 did over the Independence Day frame. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Jurassic World Rebirth will start out with $132.5 million over the five-day Independence Day holiday frame, with $81.0 million of that total coming from the traditional three-day weekend. |
| On the heels of last weekend's impressive $57.00 million first place start, Warner Bros. and Apple's F1 The Movie will look to finish in a healthy second place this weekend. The Joseph Kosinski directed racing drama starring Brad Pitt has gone over well with critics and audiences alike, as the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. F1 The Movie will also benefit this weekend from continuing to play on IMAX screens (especially given the high demand for the film in IMAX) and will also be helped out by being a non-sequel. At the same time, F1 The Movie will obviously have to deal with new direct competition from Jurassic World Rebirth this weekend and will take a bit of a hit from last weekend's debut being inflated somewhat from including several days of preview grosses. F1 The Movie could decline 49.1 percent this weekend to take in $29.0 million. That would represent a solid second weekend hold for a high-profile summer release and would move F1 The Movie well past the $100 million domestic mark. |
| Far fewer box office fireworks are expected from the rest of this weekend's slate of films, though holdovers aimed at family audiences could hold up well, especially with no new animated films entering the marketplace this weekend. Last weekend Universal and DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon declined 46.4 percent to place in second with $19.59 million, Disney and Pixar's Elio decreased 50.0 percent to follow in third with $10.43 million and fellow Disney release Lilo & Stitch slowed by just 29.6 percent to land in sixth with $6.85 million. This weekend, How to Train Your Dragon could decrease 33.7 percent to take third with $13.0 million, Elio could significantly stabilize by declining 30.0 percent to place in fourth with $7.3 million and Lilo & Stitch could decrease by only 25.5 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $5.1 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal) |
$81.0 M | $132.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | F1 The Movie (Warner Bros. / Apple) |
$29.0 M | $113.5 M | -49% | 2 |
| 3 | How to Train Your Dragon (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$13.0 M | $227.3 M | -34% | 4 |
| 4 | Elio (Disney) |
$7.3 M | $57.5 M | -30% | 3 |
| 5 | Lilo & Stitch (Disney) |
$5.1 M | $410.6 M | -26% | 7 |
| 6 | 28 Years Later (Sony / Columbia) |
$4.9 M | $60.3 M | -50% | 3 |
| 7 | M3GAN 2.0 (Universal) |
$4.3 M | $19.3 M | -58% | 2 |
| 8 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount) |
$2.6 M | $191.2 M | -37% | 7 |
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