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Weekend Box Office Predictions
June 27 - June 29, 2025
Predictions published on June 26, 2025 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| Warner Bros. and Apple's F1 The Movie will look to easily take the checkered flag at this weekend's box office race. The expensive racing drama was directed by Joseph Kosinski, stars Brad Pitt and also features Damson Idris, Kerry Condon and Javier Bardem. F1 The Movie is opening in 3,661 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens (with the film expected to perform very well in the IMAX format) and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM (the film also had select early access shows on Monday and Wednesday). Theatrical releases from Apple Films haven't had the best of luck at the box office thus far, but that should change in a big way with F1 The Movie, as there is clear demand to see to see the film in theatres. Critical reviews for F1 The Movie have also been good, which should give the film an additional boost, this weekend and beyond. And in a summer season that has been very sequel and remake heavy, F1 The Movie could also get a boost from being a non-sequel / remake. A good opening weekend comparison for F1 The Movie may prove to be last year's Gladiator II, which opened with $55.03 million. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that F1 The Movie will launch with a healthy $53.0 million this weekend. |
| After leading the box office each of the past two weekends, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon is likely to take second place this weekend. Last weekend How to Train Your Dragon declined a sizable 56.8 percent to gross $36.58 million. With the film's second weekend decline out of the way, the well-received How to Train Your Dragon should begin to stabilize this weekend, though some of that stabilization will be limited by the film losing its IMAX screens to F1 The Movie. Look for How to Train Your Dragon to decline a sizable, but understandable 46.7 percent this weekend for a third weekend take of $19.5 million. That would likely move the film just past the $200 million domestic mark. |
| The weekend's other new wide release is Universal's M3GAN 2.0. The Blumhouse produced sequel to 2023 break-out hit M3GAN sees the return of director Gerard Johnstone and return of stars Allison Williams, Violet McGraw and Amie Donald. However, this time around M3GAN 2.0 is apparently a sci-fi action film instead of a sci-fi horror film, a decision which appears to have significantly limited interest in M3GAN 2.0 off the bat. The first M3GAN film, while well received, also felt like a bit of a fad that had benefited significantly from the film's pre-release marketing having gone viral. M3GAN 2.0 won't have that benefit this time around. M3GAN 2.0 is opening in 3,112 locations this weekend (in comparison to 3,509 opening weekend locations for M3GAN) and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Critical reviews for M3GAN 2.0 have been mixed (which doesn't compare well to the strong reviews M3GAN received) and the decision to open M3GAN 2.0 just one week after 28 Years Later isn't going to help matters either. With everything that is going against M3GAN 2.0 this time around, the film may only open to roughly half the $30.43 million debut of the original M3GAN back in January of 2023. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a relatively modest third place start of $15.0 million for M3GAN 2.0 this weekend. |
| Last weekend saw Sony's 28 Years Later open in second place with $30.00 million and Disney and Pixar's Elio follow in third with a start of $20.84 million. While both films did open in line with consensus expectations, both films opened towards the lower end of those expectations and obviously didn't light the summer box office on fire. 28 Years Later has also shown significant front-loading thus far, which isn't a good sign for the film's second weekend hold. Initial daily holds have been more encouraging for Elio (the computer animated film moved slightly ahead of 28 Years Later in the daily rankings on Tuesday and Wednesday), though those holds also haven't been encouraging enough to suggest that Elio will be able to match the 37.7 percent second weekend decline of fellow Pixar film Elemental at this time two years ago. Elio and 28 Years Later will likely find themselves in a very close race for fourth place this weekend, as Elio could decline 46.3 percent to take in $11.2 million and 28 Years Later could slow by 63.3 percent to gross a very similar $11.0 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | F1 The Movie (Warner Bros. / Apple) |
$53.0 M | $53.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | How to Train Your Dragon (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$19.5 M | $200.2 M | -47% | 3 |
| 3 | M3GAN 2.0 (Universal) |
$15.0 M | $15.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Elio (Disney) |
$11.2 M | $42.7 M | -46% | 2 |
| 5 | 28 Years Later (Sony / Columbia) |
$11.0 M | $51.6 M | -63% | 2 |
| 6 | Lilo & Stitch (Disney) |
$6.3 M | $399.3 M | -35% | 6 |
| 7 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount) |
$4.0 M | $185.8 M | -38% | 6 |
| 8 | Materialists (A24) |
$2.9 M | $30.2 M | -50% | 3 |
| 9 | Ballerina (Lionsgate) |
$2.1 M | $55.5 M | -53% | 4 |
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