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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 30 - June 1, 2025
Predictions published on May 29, 2025 at 7:30PM Pacific |
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| After last weekend's record-breaking four-day Memorial Day weekend debut of $182.60 million, Disney's Lilo & Stitch will have no problem continuing to lead the domestic box office this weekend. In addition to the strength of the film's performance thus far, Lilo & Stitch has also gone over well with audiences, as the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. Lilo & Stitch is also holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend, which will also help strengthen this weekend's hold. Back in 2023, Disney's live-action re-imagining of The Little Mermaid declined 56.7 percent in its second weekend to gross $41.39 million (but that was with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse entering the marketplace), while 2019's live-action re-imagining of Aladdin declined 53.2 percent in its second weekend to gross $42.84 million (with new openers that weekend including Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Rocketman). While this week's midweek grosses for Lilo & Stitch are pointing towards a bit more initial front-loading, that could be balanced out by not much being expected of this weekend's new wide releases. Look for Lilo & Stitch to lead the way with $64.0 million this weekend, which would represent a 56.2 percent decline from last weekend's three-day $146.02 million start. |
| Paramount's Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is also set to have a continued major presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning had respective three-day and four-day holiday weekend debuts of $64.04 million and $79.04 million. The three-day weekend start for The Final Reckoning was the largest unadjusted opening weekend ever for the Mission: Impossible franchise, as it topped the $61.24 million launch of 2018's Mission: Impossible – Fallout. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore and will receive a boost this weekend from continuing to play on IMAX screens. Back in 2015, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation declined 48.7 percent in its second weekend to gross $28.50 million. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning could have a fairly similar second weekend percentage hold this weekend; though perhaps not quite as strong as a result of coming off of a holiday weekend. A 51.6 percent decline would give Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning a second place gross of $31.0 million this weekend. |
| This weekend's highest profile new wide release is Sony's Karate Kid: Legends. The newest installment of The Karate Kid franchise was directed by Jonathan Entwistle, sees the return of Jackie Chan and Ralph Macchio, and also stars Ben Wang. Karate Kid: Legends is playing in 3,809 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Critical reviews for Karate Kid: Legends have been mixed. There had been hope that the popularity of the Cobra Kai series would help transfer into theatrical demand for Karate Kid: Legends, but that doesn't really appear to be the case after all, possibly due in part to the film feeling like it might be arriving a few years too late to fully capitalize off of Cobra Kai. Karate Kid: Legends arriving in the marketplace so soon after Lilo & Stitch, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Final Destination Bloodlines isn't helping matters either. On a positive note, Karate Kid: Legends carried a relatively modest price-tag for a high-profile summer release. There is also still a possibility that the film could hold up well after this weekend, especially if it goes over better with audiences than it has with critics. As for this weekend, BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Karate Kid: Legends will debut in third place with a so-so $21.0 million. |
| Warner Bros.'s Final Destination Bloodlines is coming off of respective three-day and four-day holiday weekend grosses of $19.35 million and $24.15 million. Although Final Destination Bloodlines declined a sharp 62.5 percent over the three-day frame, that decline was obviously inflated from the new competition from Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, and from Final Destination Bloodlines losing its IMAX screens to The Final Reckoning. Final Destination Bloodlines is showing signs of stabilizing, as the film's Wednesday performance was down 49.6 percent from the previous Wednesday (when the film was still playing on IMAX screens). And today Final Destination Bloodlines will pass the $100 million domestic mark, making it the first Final Destination film to reach the $100 million domestic milestone. Final Destination Bloodlines could decline a solid 40.6 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $11.5 million. |
| This weekend's other new wide release is A24's Bring Her Back. The R-rated horror film was directed by Danny Philippou and Michael Philippou; the directing team behind 2023's Talk to Me. Bring Her Back stars Billy Barratt, Sora Wong and Sally Hawkins. The film is playing in 2,409 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Critical reviews for Bring Her Back have been very strong. Talk to Me debuted with $10.43 million in July of 2023 and held up especially well afterwards to end its domestic run with $48.30 million. Bring Her Back doesn't feel as though it has as much mainstream appeal that Talk to Me had, but it should still have a presence at the box office this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Bring Her Back will round out this weekend's top five with $7.4 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Lilo & Stitch (Disney) |
$64.0 M | $281.5 M | -56% | 2 |
| 2 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount) |
$31.0 M | $126.5 M | -52% | 2 |
| 3 | Karate Kid: Legends (Sony / Columbia) |
$21.0 M | $21.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Final Destination Bloodlines (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$11.5 M | $112.5 M | -41% | 3 |
| 5 | Bring Her Back (A24) |
$7.4 M | $7.4 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Thunderbolts* (Disney) |
$5.8 M | $182.9 M | -40% | 5 |
| 7 | Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
$5.7 M | $267.6 M | -34% | 7 |
| 8 | Friendship (A24) |
$3.2 M | $12.8 M | -30% | 4 |
| 9 | The Last Rodeo (Angel Studios) |
$2.4 M | $11.0 M | -56% | 2 |
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