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4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 23 - May 26, 2025
Predictions published on May 22, 2025 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| The box office is in store for a massive one-two combination this weekend with the highly anticipated arrivals of Disney's live-action version of Lilo & Stitch and Paramount's Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. |
| Disney's Lilo & Stitch, the live-action re-imagining of the 2002 animated film of the same name is clearly one of this summer's most anticipated films. The re-imagining was directed by Dean Fleischer Camp, stars Maia Kealoha and Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, and features Chris Sanders as the voice of Stitch. Lilo & Stitch is opening in 4,410 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Last year Disney had tremendous success with both Inside Out 2 and Moana 2 and Lilo & Stitch is set to hit it big with the same family audiences that helped drive Inside Out 2 and Moana 2 to respective three-day opening weekend grosses of $154.20 million and $139.79 million. In addition to the film's clear appeal with families, as a sci-fi themed film that is also turning into an event film, Lilo & Stitch may also have a bit more cross-over appeal with non-family audiences than is usual for a family film. On the average, critical reviews for Lilo & Stitch have been respectable, and better than usual for a live-action re-imagining from Disney. Lilo & Stitch could be headed for massive respective three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $160.0 million and $204.0 million. That would easily set a new opening weekend record for Memorial Day weekend; a record which currently belongs to Top Gun: Maverick with a four-day launch of $160.51 million back in 2022. |
| There also appears to be a relatively high amount of anticipation for Paramount's Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. The eighth installment of the long-running Tom Cruise led Mission: Impossible film franchise was directed by Christopher McQuarrie. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is playing in 3,857 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM (IMAX fan event preview shows begin at 2PM). On the average, critical reviews for Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning have been good, but also not as strong as those for each of the four most recent Mission: Impossible films. Back in July of 2023, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning had a five-day start of $78.49 million (after opening on a Wednesday). Given that there appears to be at least a bit more demand for The Final Reckoning than there was for Dead Reckoning, it feels reasonable that the four-day start for The Final Reckoning could be very similar to the five-day start of Dead Reckoning. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day holiday weekend grosses of $64.0 million and $79.0 million for Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. The three-day weekend figure would represent the largest three-day opening weekend ever for the Mission: Impossible series, as the current high-water mark is the $61.24 million opening weekend gross of Mission: Impossible – Fallout back in July of 2018. |
| Meanwhile, Warner Bros.'s Final Destination Bloodlines will continue to have a significant presence of its own at the box office this weekend on the heels of last weekend's impressive $51.60 million first place debut. Final Destination Bloodlines has gone over extremely well with critics and also looks to be going over pretty well with audiences after receiving a good B+ rating on CinemaScore. However, as a result of this weekend's new releases, Final Destination Bloodlines will be losing a significant amount of average showtimes per location from last weekend, and in addition will lose its IMAX screens to Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. As a result, Final Destination Bloodlines (and holdovers in general this weekend) is likely to take a larger hit than it normally would in a more typical Memorial Day weekend holiday frame. Over the three-day frame Final Destination Bloodlines could decline 60.3 percent to take in $20.5 million and over the four-day frame the film could gross $25.5 million, which would represent a 50.6 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day gross. |
| Disney and Marvel's Thunderbolts*, and Warner Bros.'s Sinners are also both likely to take larger than usual hits for films of their size over Memorial Day weekend. Last weekend Thunderbolts* declined 48.6 percent to place in second with $16.65 million, while Sinners decreased by just 31.2 percent to follow closely behind in third with $15.20 million. While Sinners has displayed much stronger holding power than Thunderbolts*, the two films could experience fairly similar percentage holds this weekend, due in part to Thunderbolts* losing a smaller percentage of its locations than Sinners will this weekend. Thunderbolts* could place in fourth this weekend with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $8.1 million and $10.3 million and Sinners could round out this weekend's top five with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $8.0 million and $10.0 million. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Lilo & Stitch (Disney) |
$204.0 M | $204.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount) |
$79.0 M | $79.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Final Destination Bloodlines (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$25.5 M | $95.8 M | -51% | 2 |
| 4 | Thunderbolts* (Disney) |
$10.3 M | $172.5 M | -38% | 4 |
| 5 | Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
$10.0 M | $257.9 M | -34% | 6 |
| 6 | The Last Rodeo (Angel Studios) |
$6.0 M | $6.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | Friendship (A24) |
$4.0 M | $6.6 M | +186% | 3 |
| 8 | A Minecraft Movie (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$3.5 M | $422.2 M | -41% | 8 |
| 9 | The Accountant 2 (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$2.5 M | $63.5 M | -48% | 5 |
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