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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 9 - May 11, 2025
Predictions published on May 8, 2025 at 6:45PM Pacific |
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| Disney and Marvel's Thunderbolts* will look to lead the domestic box office for a second consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend Thunderbolts* debuted in first place with $74.30 million. While that was towards the lower end of consensus expectations, Thunderbolts* looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. In addition to strong critical reviews and good early word of mouth, Thunderbolts* will also benefit this weekend from no high-profile films opening in the marketplace, from holding onto its IMAX screens and from growing buzz (and new marketing) around the film's new informal *The New Avengers title. Thunderbolts* and holdovers in general will also get at least a bit of a boost this weekend from Mother's Day on Sunday. Two years ago over Mother's Day weekend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 declined just 47.6 percent in its second weekend to gross $62.01 million. Thunderbolts* may not be able to quite duplicate that second weekend percentage hold this weekend, but it could come pretty close. A very respectable 50.9 percent decline would transfer into a $36.5 million second weekend take for Thunderbolts* this weekend. |
| Warner Bros.'s Sinners had another terrific hold last weekend, as the break-out horror blockbuster declined 27.6 percent to take second with $33.10 million. Making the hold ever more impressive is that it occurred with the film losing its IMAX screens to Thunderbolts* (prior to losing IMAX screens, IMAX grosses had represented an exceptional estimated 20.7 percent of the overall domestic gross for Sinners). With the film's loss of IMAX screens now out of the way, it feels highly likely that the critically acclaimed Sinners will have an even better percentage hold this weekend than the film did last weekend. As was the case last weekend, Sinners will also be holding onto an extremely high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and will once again see its showtimes per location increase over last weekend at some locations. Sinners will also get a bit of a boost this weekend from adding an additional 155 new locations, for a total location count of 3,502 locations for the frame. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Sinners will decline only 16.9 percent this weekend to hold steady in second place with $27.5 million. |
| Last weekend Warner Bros. & Legendary's A Minecraft Movie and Amazon MGM Studios' The Accountant 2 claimed third and fourth place with respective weekend takes of $13.73 million and $9.49 million. A Minecraft Movie was down a solid 39.5 percent last weekend (which represented the film's best weekend percentage hold to date), while The Accountant 2 experienced a sharp second weekend decline of 61.3 percent. Both films are likely to hold up better this weekend than last weekend, especially The Accountant 2. Look for A Minecraft Movie to decline 35.9 percent from last weekend to remain in third place with $8.8 million and for The Accountant 2 to decrease by a similar 36.8 percent to hold steady in fourth place with $6.0 million. |
| While there are no new high-profile wide releases entering the marketplace this weekend, there are a handful of lower-profile wide releases opening this weekend. The two more notable of those films box office wise are RLJE Films & Shudder's Clown in a Cornfield and Lionsgate's Shadow Force. Clown in a Cornfield, an R-rated horror film directed by Eli Craig and starring Katie Douglas and Aaron Abrams, will open in 2,277 locations and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Shadow Force, an R-rated action thriller directed by Joe Carnahan and starring Kerry Washington and Omar Sy, will open in 2,170 locations and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Last May, IFC Films & Shudder's In a Violent Nature debuted with $2.16 million from 1,426 locations. With the wider launch and a concept that feels a bit more mainstream friendly, there's a strong chance Clown in a Cornfield will open higher than In a Violent Nature did. A good opening weekend comparison for Shadow Force could prove to be fellow Lionsgate release The Killer's Game, which opened with $2.70 million (from 2,623 locations) last September. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective starts of $3.6 million for Clown in a Cornfield and $2.9 million for Shadow Force this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Thunderbolts* (Disney) |
$36.5 M | $131.8 M | -51% | 2 |
| 2 | Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
$27.5 M | $220.8 M | -17% | 4 |
| 3 | A Minecraft Movie (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$8.8 M | $409.9 M | -36% | 6 |
| 4 | The Accountant 2 (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$6.0 M | $50.8 M | -37% | 3 |
| 5 | Clown in a Cornfield (RLJE Films / Shudder) |
$3.6 M | $3.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Shadow Force (Lionsgate) |
$2.9 M | $2.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | Until Dawn (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$2.0 M | $18.0 M | -48% | 3 |
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