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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 2 - May 4, 2025
Predictions published on May 1, 2025 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| After a terrific month of April, the overall box office is set to remain strong this weekend, as the summer movie-going season kicks off with the release of Disney and Marvel's Thunderbolts*. The latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) was directed by Jake Schreier and features an ensemble cast that includes Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan and David Harbour. The film about a makeshift anti-hero / superhero team will be playing in 4,330 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Relatively speaking by MCU standards, pre-release excitement for Thunderbolts* had felt somewhat muted, but anticipation for the film appears to be kicking up at the last minute, thanks in part to the film's very strong critical reviews. Two better opening weekend comparisons for Thunderbolts* could prove to be Black Widow, which opened with $80.37 million back in July of 2021 (Thunderbolts* features the return of several characters from Black Widow) and the most recent MCU film, Captain America: Brave New World, which had a three-day start of $88.84 million this past February. Thunderbolts* could potentially be less front-loaded than both Black Widow and Captain America: Brave New World were, especially if Thunderbolts* goes over similarly with audiences as it has with critics. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Thunderbolts* will debut in first place this weekend with $84.0 million. |
| Even with the arrival of Thunderbolts*, Warner Bros.'s Sinners should continue to pad its status as a box office phenomenon this weekend. Last weekend Sinners had one of the best second weekend holds ever for a film coming off of a sizable opening weekend performance (especially when not opening the weekend before a holiday weekend), as Sinners was down an unheard of 4.8 percent for a second weekend haul of $45.71 million. Part of last weekend's historic second weekend hold for Sinners was due to the film's continued strength in IMAX, as IMAX grosses represented an estimated 22.8 percent of last weekend's overall domestic gross. Unfortunately for Sinners, the film will be losing its IMAX screens this weekend to Thunderbolts*. With such a high percentage of last weekend's gross for Sinners coming from IMAX screens, obviously losing those screens will take a relative toll on the film this weekend. At the same time, with there still being significant continued demand to see Sinners in theatres (on any theatrical format), it's very possible that non-IMAX grosses for Sinners could remain essentially unchanged from last weekend, especially with Sinners even seeing its showtimes per location increase over last weekend at some locations. Look for Sinners to have another terrific hold this weekend, by declining just 22.3 percent to take second place with $35.5 million. |
| Last weekend Amazon MGM Studios' The Accountant 2 debuted in third place with a respectable $24.53 million, while Warner Bros. and Legendary's A Minecraft Movie followed closely behind in fourth place with a fourth weekend take of $22.71 million (which was a 43.9 percent decrease from the previous frame). With A Minecraft Movie being further along in its run, it will likely have a better percentage hold than The Accountant 2 this weekend, especially with A Minecraft Movie having special 'Block Party Edition' screenings this weekend. A Minecraft Movie could decline a solid 40.5 percent this weekend to take third with $13.5 million. The Accountant 2 could decline a sizable 56.4 percent from last weekend to follow in fourth place with $10.7 million (back in October of 2016, The Accountant decreased by 44.8 percent in its second weekend to gross $13.64 million). |
| After debuting on the lower end of consensus expectations last weekend with $8.00 million, Sony's Until Dawn could decrease a respectable 50.0 percent this weekend to place in fifth with $4.0 million. |
| Also of note this weekend is that after last weekend's strong $25.50 million second place start, the 20th Anniversary re-issue of Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith is already being pulled from theatres by Disney nonetheless. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Thunderbolts* (Disney) |
$84.0 M | $84.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Sinners (Warner Bros.) |
$35.5 M | $181.8 M | -22% | 3 |
| 3 | A Minecraft Movie (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$13.5 M | $398.0 M | -41% | 5 |
| 4 | The Accountant 2 (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$10.7 M | $42.3 M | -56% | 2 |
| 5 | Until Dawn (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$4.0 M | $14.5 M | -50% | 2 |
| 6 | The Amateur (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.1 M | $37.2 M | -43% | 4 |
| 7 | The King of Kings (Angel Studios) |
$2.0 M | $58.0 M | -53% | 4 |
| 8 | The Surfer (Roadside) |
$1.5 M | $1.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Warfare (A24) |
$1.4 M | $24.1 M | -47% | 4 |
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