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Weekend Box Office Predictions
April 4 - April 6, 2025
Predictions published on April 3, 2025 at 6:45PM Pacific |
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| It appears that the box office is in store for the first true opening weekend break-out performance of 2025 with the release of Warner Bros. and Legendary's A Minecraft Movie. The theatrical adaptation of the extremely popular Minecraft video game was directed by Jared Hess and stars Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers and Sebastian Hansen. A Minecraft Movie is playing in 4,263 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. While the online reaction to the initial trailer for the film was mixed, the buzz surrounding A Minecraft Movie has clearly strengthened as the film's release has grown closer. The immense popularity of the Minecraft video game, clear four-quadrant appeal and opening in an otherwise quiet marketplace all look to be helping create a perfect storm for A Minecraft Movie this weekend. Critical reviews for A Minecraft Movie have been mixed, but the film is likely to be critic-proof at the box office (at least over opening weekend), especially since video game based films typically don't go over well with critics. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that A Minecraft Movie will open with an impressive $102.0 million this weekend. That would represent the largest opening weekend of 2025 to date (ahead of the $88.84 million start of Captain America: Brave New World back in February), the second largest opening weekend ever for a video game based film (behind only 2023's The Super Mario Bros. Movie) and the sixth largest opening weekend ever for the month of April. |
| After The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 opened to a series best $11.76 million last weekend, Fathom Event's The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 arrives in theatres this weekend. As was ultimately the case with The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 is having a traditional three-day weekend, with Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM (in the past, most releases of The Chosen series tended to have mid-week openings). Last year, The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6 had a four-day start of $4.41 million. That represented 59.7 percent of the $7.38 million four-day opening of The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1 – 3 two weeks earlier. With only one week separating the releases this time around and there looking to be more overall interest this year than there was last year, The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 could retain a bit more of the opening weekend audience from The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, than we saw last year with The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 – 6. Look for The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 to open in second place this weekend with $7.9 million and also for The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 to have a continued presence at the box office this weekend with $2.4 million. |
| Last weekend Amazon MGM Studios' A Working Man exceeded expectations with a first place start of $15.51 million. That wasn't far behind the $16.58 million debut of The Beekeeper back in January of last year. In its second weekend of release, The Beekeeper declined a very respectable 48.1 percent to gross $8.60 million. With A Working Man having to deal with a new film the size of A Minecraft Movie this weekend, it's unlikely that A Working Man will hold up quite as well this weekend as The Beekeeper did in its second weekend. At the same time, this weekend's decline for A Working Man may not be all that much worse, thanks in part to solid word of mouth (A Working Man received a B rating on CinemaScore). Look for A Working Man to decrease 52.3 percent this weekend to place in third with $7.4 million. |
| Meanwhile, Disney's Snow White is likely to have another tough weekend. Last weekend Snow White declined a sharp 66.0 percent to settle for second place with $14.33 million. While the overall demographics for the two films certainly aren't the same, A Minecraft Movie will no doubt appeal to family audiences this weekend, which will lead to Snow White taking a fairly direct hit. In addition, Snow White will also lose the remainder of its IMAX screens and showtimes this weekend and will have to continue to deal with both mixed critical reviews and mixed word of mouth. A sharp 60.2 percent decline would transfer into a fourth place gross of $5.7 million for Disney's Snow White this weekend. |
| After exceeding expectations last weekend with a fourth place debut of $9.40 million, Universal's The Woman in the Yard is likely to round out this weekend's top five. Although The Woman in the Yard hasn't gone over well with critics and audiences alike (the film received a poor C- rating on CinemaScore), the PG-13 horror film should get a boost this weekend from holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend, thanks to last weekend's solid per-location performance and to the film's fairly short 88-minute run-time. Look for The Woman in the Yard to decline 52.1 percent this weekend to gross $4.5 million. |
| Expanding to semi-wide release this weekend is Bleecker Street's The Friend. The Scott McGehee and David Siegel directed film starring Naomi Watts and Bill Murray will be playing in 1,237 locations this weekend. The Friend has gone over pretty well with critics and last weekend the film had a solid platform launch with $67,629 from 2 locations in New York City. Given the strength of last weekend's performance, The Friend may be in store for a slightly better per-location average than most of Bleecker Street's more recent releases. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a weekend gross of $1.8 million for The Friend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | A Minecraft Movie (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$102.0 M | $102.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (Fathom Events) |
$7.9 M | $7.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | A Working Man (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$7.4 M | $27.9 M | -52% | 2 |
| 4 | Disney's Snow White (Disney) |
$5.7 M | $77.1 M | -60% | 3 |
| 5 | The Woman in the Yard (Universal) |
$4.5 M | $16.6 M | -52% | 2 |
| 6 | Death of a Unicorn (A24) |
$2.7 M | $10.6 M | -53% | 2 |
| 7 | The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (Fathom Events) |
$2.4 M | $18.4 M | -80% | 2 |
| 8 | The Friend (Bleecker Street) |
$1.8 M | $1.88 M | +2,562% | 2 |
| 9 | Captain America: Brave New World (Disney) |
$1.6 M | $199.3 M | -45% | 8 |
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