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Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 28 - March 2, 2025
Predictions published on February 27, 2025 at 7:30PM Pacific |
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| It what will be a slow overall frame, Disney and Marvel's Captain America: Brave New World will look to lead the domestic box office for a third consecutive weekend. Last weekend Captain America: Brave New World declined a very sharp 68.3 percent to gross $28.17 million. That represented a slightly better second weekend percentage hold than that of 2023's Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, which declined 69.9 percent in its second weekend gross $31.96 million. Due in part to facing new competition from Creed III, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania declined a sharp 59.9 percent in its third weekend to gross $12.81 million. With Captain America: Brave New World not having to deal with a new release the size of Creed III this weekend, Captain America: Brave New World should have a significantly better third weekend percentage hold than Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania had. At the same time, mixed critical reviews and so-so word of mouth will still likely prevent Captain America: Brave New World from stabilizing all that much this weekend. Captain America: Brave New World could decline 47.8 percent this weekend to gross $14.7 million. |
| This weekend sees the release of Focus' Last Breath. The Alex Parkinson directed underwater thriller based on a true story stars Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu, Finn Cole and Cliff Curtis. Last Breath is playing in 3,018 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. On the average, critical reviews for Last Breath have been fairly good thus far. Back in March of 2023, the Woody Harrelson led Champions, which was also released by Focus, debuted with $5.15 million. Last Breath will likely open a bit higher than Champions did, especially with Last Breath opening over a much slower frame (Champions opened the same weekend as Scream VI and 65) and Last Breath looking to receive a higher average amount of showtimes per location than Champions did. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Last Breath will debut in second place this weekend with $7.4 million. |
| NEON's The Monkey is coming off of a solid $14.01 million start last weekend. That represented the second largest opening weekend ever for NEON, behind only the $22.40 million start of fellow R-rated horror film Longlegs last July. Longlegs declined a solid 46.6 percent in its second weekend to gross $11.97 million. It feels unlikely that The Monkey will be able to have a second weekend hold as strong as that of Longlegs, as The Monkey doesn't seem to be going over quite as well as Longlegs did, and Longlegs also added an additional 340 locations in its second weekend. Look for The Monkey to decline 54.3 percent this weekend to place in third with $6.4 million. |
| Sony and Studiocanal's Paddington in Peru and Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Dog Man were fairly close to one another in last weekend's rankings with respective third and fourth place grosses of $6.50 million and $5.86 million. Not even the pair of family films were unaffected by Valentine's Day weekend falling on Friday the previous weekend, as Dog Man declined 40.1 percent last weekend and Paddington in Peru decreased by 49.0 percent. With the post-holiday frame now behind us, Paddington in Peru and Dog Man should both hold up much better this weekend than last weekend. Paddington in Peru could decrease 27.7 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $4.7 million and Dog Man could decline a similar 24.9 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $4.4 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Captain America: Brave New World (Disney) |
$14.7 M | $163.4 M | -48% | 3 |
| 2 | Last Breath (Focus) |
$7.4 M | $7.4 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | The Monkey (NEON) |
$6.4 M | $24.6 M | -54% | 2 |
| 4 | Paddington in Peru (Sony / Columbia / Studiocanal) |
$4.7 M | $31.6 M | -28% | 3 |
| 5 | Dog Man (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$4.4 M | $84.3 M | -25% | 5 |
| 6 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$1.95 M | $248.0 M | -23% | 11 |
| 7 | Ne Zha 2 (CMC Pictures) |
$1.50 M | $17.8 M | -53% | 3 |
| 8 | The Unbreakable Boy (Lionsgate) |
$1.40 M | $4.7 M | -41% | 2 |
| 9 | Heart Eyes (Sony / Screen Gems / Spyglass) |
$1.35 M | $28.9 M | -50% | 4 |
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