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Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 21 - February 23, 2025
Predictions chart published on February 20, 2025 at 8:00PM Pacific |
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| Weekend Predictions Article Update: |
| Disney and Marvel's Captain America: Brave New World should be able to lead the domestic box office for a second consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend, Captain America: Brave New World debuted towards the high end of consensus expectations with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $88.84 million and $100.02 million. Critical reviews for Captain America: Brave New World have been mixed, and the film only looks to be going over somewhat better with audiences after receiving a B- rating on CinemaScore. At the same time, initial daily percentage holds for the film have been fairly respectable thus far, so it is possible that the film is going over a bit better with audiences than the film's B- CinemaScore rating would typically suggest for a comic book based film. Two years ago at this time, fellow Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) film Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania declined a sharp 69.9 percent in its second weekend to gross $31.96 million. Captain America: Brave New World may be able to hold up slightly better than that this weekend, due in part to potentially being a bit more relatively weekend heavy than Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania was and from dealing with less promising new competition in its second weekend than Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania did (in the form of Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution). On the other hand, the opening weekend performance for Captain America: Brave New World received a boost from Valentine's Day falling last Friday, whereas Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania didn't have such a boost as a result of opening three days after Valentine's Day. All things considered, Captain America: Brave New World could decrease a sharp 66.2 percent this weekend for a second weekend gross of $30.0 million. |
| The weekend's highest profile new release is NEON's The Monkey. The R-rated horror dark comedy is based on a short story by Stephen King and was directed by Osgood Perkins. The Monkey features Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Christian Convery, Colin O'Brien and Elijah Wood. Estimated location counts for The Monkey this weekend range from 3,000 – 3,200 locations and the film has Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM (as well as early access shows back on February 10 & February 12). On the average, critical reviews for The Monkey have been good. Last July, NEON released Longlegs, Perkins' previous horror film as a director. Longlegs broke out on opening weekend with $22.40 million and went on to gross $74.35 million domestically. While the overall goodwill for Longlegs should certainly help The Monkey out at the box office, it feels as though there isn't quite as much pre-release excitement for The Monkey as there was for Longlegs. Some of that may be a result of there having been so many horror themed films entering the marketplace as of late; The Monkey represents the sixth horror film to receive a wide release in the past two months (beginning with Nosferatu back on Christmas Day). At the same time, The Monkey may prove to be relatively more of a walk-up business friendly horror film than Longlegs was, especially with The Monkey receiving a wider launch (Longlegs opened in 2,510 locations, before increasing to 2,850 locations in its second weekend). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Monkey will debut in second place this weekend with a healthy $17.5 million. |
| It could prove to be a fairly close race for third place this weekend between two family films: Sony and Studiocanal's Paddington in Peru and Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Dog Man. Last weekend there wasn't all that much space between the two films on the box office chart, as Paddington in Peru (in its first frame) and Dog Man (in its third frame) had respective four-day weekend grosses of $16.01 million and $13.40 million. In being further along in its run, Dog Man should hold up better than Paddington in Peru will this weekend, especially given that Paddington in Peru had a stronger Valentine's Day performance last Friday. But the well-received Paddington in Peru (which received a strong A rating on CinemaScore) may hold up just well enough to hold off Dog Man for third place this weekend. Paddington in Peru could decline a respectable 42.8 percent from last weekend's three-day debut to take in $7.3 million this weekend, while Dog Man could decrease by just 27.5 percent to follow closely behind with $7.1 million. That would bring respective domestic totals to roughly $26.0 million for Paddington in Peru and to $80 million for Dog Man. |
| Two of last weekend's notable performers, Sony and Spyglass' Heart Eyes and CMC Pictures release of Enlight Pictures' Ne Zha 2, should both continue to have a presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend, thanks in part to being a very strong Valentine's Day performer, Heart Eyes was up a terrific 19.0 percent over the three-day frame to gross $9.88 million (the film took in $10.87 million over the four-day frame). Ne Zha 2, the record-breaking computer animated sequel from China, was very impressive in moderate release, with respective three-day and four-day starts of $7.69 million and $9.50 million in North America (including two days of previews). While there were factors that inflated the performances of both films last weekend (and Heart Eyes will have to deal with new direct competition from The Monkey this weekend), at the same time both films will continue to benefit from strong word of mouth. Look for Heart Eyes to decline a sizable 55.5 percent from last weekend to take in $4.4 million and for Ne Zha 2 to decrease a very respectable 45.4 percent to gross a similar $4.2 million. |
| This weekend also sees the release of Lionsgate and Kingdom Story's The Unbreakable Boy. The Jon Gunn directed drama aimed at family audiences stars Zachary Levi, Meghann Fahy and Jacob Laval. The Unbreakable Boy is being released in 1,687 locations this weekend. Thus far critical reviews for the film have been mixed. The Unbreakable Boy was originally scheduled to be released way back in 2022, before being delayed for nearly three years. The situation is similar to that of Lionsgate's long-delayed White Bird, which opened with $1.56 million (from a scaled back 1,018 locations) upon finally being released this past October. The Unbreakable Boy may open a bit higher than White Bird did, in part from the wider launch, but overall expectations are modest, due in part to the release date delay. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a debut of $3.3 million for The Unbreakable Boy this weekend. |
| Weekend Predictions Chart Update: |
| This weekend's predictions article will appear later tonight. This weekend's box office predictions chart can be found below. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Captain America: Brave New World (Disney) |
$30.0 M | $142.9 M | -66% | 2 |
| 2 | The Monkey (NEON) |
$17.5 M | $17.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Paddington in Peru (Sony / Columbia / Studiocanal) |
$7.3 M | $26.0 M | -43% | 2 |
| 4 | Dog Man (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$7.1 M | $80.0 M | -27% | 4 |
| 5 | Heart Eyes (Sony / Screen Gems / Spyglass) |
$4.4 M | $28.3 M | -55% | 3 |
| 6 | Ne Zha 2 (CMC Pictures) |
$4.2 M | $16.1 M | -45% | 2 |
| 7 | The Unbreakable Boy (Lionsgate) |
$3.3 M | $3.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$2.9 M | $245.8 M | -32% | 10 |
| 9 | One of Them Days (Sony / TriStar) |
$1.7 M | $46.3 M | -43% | 6 |
| 10 | Love Hurts (Universal) |
$1.5 M | $14.9 M | -64% | 3 |
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