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4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
February 14 - February 17, 2025
Published on February 13, 2025 at 7:45PM Pacific |
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| Disney and Marvel's Captain America: Brave New World will look to deliver the largest opening weekend of 2025 thus far, upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The Julius Onah directed comic book based film represents the first film in the Captain America series that features Anthony Mackie's Sam Wilson as Captain America. Captain America: Brave New World also features Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson and Harrison Ford. Captain America: Brave New World is playing in 4,105 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. Unfortunately, critical reviews for Captain America: Brave New World have been mixed (which isn't good by the typical lofty critical standards for films within the Marvel Cinematic Universe). While interest in Captain America: Brave New World is strong enough that the mixed critical reviews likely won't make too much of a negative impact this weekend, they will likely come into play much more beyond this weekend. Two years ago, fellow MCU film Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania opened over Presidents' Day weekend with respective three-day and four-day debuts of $106.11 million and $120.39 million. It is unlikely that Captain America: Brave New World will reach those same box office heights this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and four-day weekend debuts of $84.0 million and $95.0 million for Captain America: Brave New World over the holiday frame. |
| This weekend also sees Sony release Studiocanal's Paddington in Peru. The Dougal Wilson directed film represents the third film in the Paddington series, and stars Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer, Julie Walters, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas and features Ben Whishaw as the voice of Paddington. Paddington in Peru is playing in 3,890 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM (the film also had early access shows this past Saturday). Paddington in Peru is the follow-up to Paddington 2, which had respective three-day and four-day opening weekend grosses of $11.00 million and $15.00 million over Martin Luther King weekend back in 2018. While Paddington 2 was beloved by critics and audiences alike, that film's debut nonetheless experienced a significant drop-off from the respective $18.97 million and $25.49 million three-day and four-day debuts of Paddington over Martin Luther King weekend back in 2015. Paddington in Peru has also gone over very well with critics, which in combination with the reception to Paddington 2, could help Paddington in Peru have a larger debut than that of Paddington 2. Paddington in Peru has already been playing internationally for a while, with the film having grossed an estimated $104.0 million internationally as of this past Sunday. Look for Paddington in Peru to have respective three-day and four-day second place grosses of $15.0 million and $18.5 million this weekend. |
| After leading the weekend box office each of the past two frames, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Dog Man will likely fall to third place this weekend. Last weekend Dog Man experienced a sharper than expected decline, by decreasing 61.6 percent to take in $13.81 million. Dog Man should experience some significant stabilization this weekend, especially with the dual-holiday frame, but at the same time the film will also have to deal with new direct competition for family audiences from Paddington in Peru and also looks to be taking a significant hit to its showtimes per location in comparison to last weekend (as a result of Paddington in Peru and Captain America: Brave New World entering the marketplace this weekend). Look for Dog Man to gross $8.3 million over the three-day frame, which would represent a 39.9 percent decline from last weekend and for the computer animated film to take in $10.3 million over the four-day frame, which would be a decrease of 25.4 percent from last weekend's three-day gross. |
| There will also be a major wild card at the domestic box office this weekend with CMC Pictures' release of Ne Zha 2. Ne Zha 2 has become an absolute box office phenomenon in China, having nearly grossed $1.4 billion thus far since being released back on January 29. The Mandarin language computer animated film directed by Jiaozi is the follow-up to 2019's Ne Zha (which also did massive business at the box office in China). The original Ne Zha had a bit of a presence at the domestic box office, as that film grossed $3.70 million during its domestic run (with a maximum location count of just 135). While an exact location count for Ne Zha 2 isn't currently available, it appears that the film will be receiving a moderate / semi-wide release this weekend. The relatively wider launch and the growing buzz around the performance of Ne Zha 2 in China should help lead to some break-out potential for Ne Zha 2 this weekend in North America (though capacity issues will also limit some of that break-out potential). Ne Zha 2 could pull in respective three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $6.8 million and $8.0 million (including preview grosses on both Wednesday and Thursday). |
| Sony and Spyglass' Heart Eyes will look to have a continued presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend Heart Eyes debuted in second place with a respectable $8.31 million. Thanks in part to strong critical reviews, good word of mouth, last weekend's performance being deflated somewhat by the Super Bowl and Valentine's Day falling on Friday (with the film likely to appeal greatly to Valentine's Day audiences), Heart Eyes will have a good chance of holding up very well this weekend. On top of that, initial midweek daily percentage holds have been encouraging for Heart Eyes thus far. Heart Eyes could decline just 15.7 percent to gross $7.0 million over the three-day frame and could gross $7.8 million over the four-day frame, which would represent a slim decrease of 6.1 percent from last weekend's three-day debut. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Captain America: Brave New World (Disney) |
$95.0 M | $95.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Paddington in Peru (Sony / Columbia / Studiocanal) |
$18.5 M | $18.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Dog Man (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$10.3 M | $67.3 M | -25% | 3 |
| 4 | Ne Zha 2 (CMC Pictures) |
$8.0 M | $8.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Heart Eyes (Sony / Screen Gems / Spyglass) |
$7.8 M | $19.1 M | -6% | 2 |
| 6 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$4.7 M | $241.3 M | +17% | 9 |
| 7 | Love Hurts (Universal) |
$3.7 M | $11.6 M | -36% | 2 |
| 8 | One of Them Days (Sony / TriStar) |
$2.6 M | $43.1 M | -9% | 5 |
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