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4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
January 17 - January 20, 2025
Published on January 16, 2025 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| Universal and Blumhouse's Wolf Man will look to lead the box office this weekend, in what is likely to be a relatively quiet overall Martin Luther King weekend holiday frame. Wolf Man; an R-rated reboot of Universal's 1941 horror film The Wolf Man, was directed by Leigh Whannell and stars Christopher Abbott, Julia Garner, Sam Jaeger and Matilda Firth. Wolf Man is playing in 3,354 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows starting early at 2PM. Somewhat surprisingly, critical reviews for Wolf Man have been mixed. Whannell had previous success with the reboot of The Invisible Man, which debuted with $28.21 million back in February of 2020 and went to gross $70.41 million domestically (and the film would have grossed more had it not been for the COVID-19 pandemic). However, there appears to be much less interest in Wolf Man than there was in The Invisible Man, some of which may be due to horror fans having been recently satisfied by Focus' Nosferatu. Even with that being the case, Wolf Man will still have a good chance of debuting in first place this weekend, especially with the film receiving a sizable amount of average showtimes per location and playing on IMAX screens. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Wolf Man will start out with $17.0 million over the four-day frame, with $15.0 million of that total coming from the traditional three-day weekend. |
| Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King is coming off of a close second place performance of $14.22 million. Mufasa: The Lion King has claimed second place at the domestic box office three of the past four weekends and the film will have a good chance of claiming second place once again this weekend. Although Mufasa: The Lion King will have to deal with losing its IMAX screens and showtimes this weekend, at the same time the film is only playing in 65 fewer overall locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total of 3,555 locations). Mufasa: The Lion King should also get a box office boost this weekend from the Martin Luther King holiday frame, which is typically a strong frame for family fare. Over the three-day frame Mufasa: The Lion King could decline just 27.6 percent to take in $10.3 million, while the film could gross $14.3 million over the four-day frame (which would represent a slim 0.6 percent increase over last weekend's three-day gross). This weekend will see Mufasa: The Lion King pass the $200 million domestic mark. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Sony's One of Them Days. The modestly budgeted R-rated comedy was directed by Lawrence Lamont and stars Keke Palmer and SZA. One of Them Days is playing in 2,675 locations this weekend and also has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Pre-release anticipation for One of Them Days has felt modest, but interest in One of Them Days also appears to be increasing in the days leading up to the film's release, thanks in part to very strong critical reviews. Releasing One of Them Days over Martin Luther King weekend could also lead to One of Them Days having even stronger appeal with African American moviegoers. If One of Them Days goes over as well with audiences as it has with critics, there is also potential for the film to hold up well in the weeks ahead. As for this weekend, One of Them Days could debut in third place with promising respective three-day and four-day grosses of $10.0 million and $12.0 million. |
| Meanwhile, Lionsgate's Den of Thieves 2: Pantera and Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 could find themselves in a close race for fourth place over the four-day frame. Last weekend Den of Thieves 2: Pantera debuted in first place with $15.02 million, while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 declined a sizable, but understandable 46.8 percent to place in third with $11.35 million. With Den of Thieves 2 entering its second weekend of release, the action sequel is likely to experience a larger percentage decline than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 over the three-day weekend, and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is sure to have the relatively stronger performance between the two on Monday. Look for Den of Thieves 2: Pantera to decline 43.4 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $8.5 million and for the film to take in $10.2 million over the four-day frame (which would represent a 32.1 percent decline from last weekend's three-day start). Sonic the Hedgehog 3 could decrease 35.7 percent over the three-day frame to gross $7.3 million and take in $9.7 million over the four-day frame (which would be a decline of 14.6 percent from last weekend's three-day performance). |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Wolf Man (Universal) |
$17.0 M | $17.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$14.3 M | $208.6 M | +1% | 5 |
| 3 | One of Them Days (Sony / TriStar) |
$12.0 M | $12.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (Lionsgate) |
$10.2 M | $29.8 M | -32% | 2 |
| 5 | Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) |
$9.7 M | $217.6 M | -15% | 5 |
| 6 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$6.7 M | $443.4 M | +2% | 8 |
| 7 | Nosferatu (Focus) |
$5.0 M | $90.1 M | -27% | 4 |
| 8 | A Complete Unknown (Disney / Searchlight) |
$4.8 M | $58.6 M | -6% | 4 |
| 9 | Wicked (Universal) |
$4.7 M | $465.7 M | -8% | 9 |
| 10 | The Brutalist (A24) |
$2.55 M | $5.9 M | +84% | 5 |
| 11 | Babygirl (A24) |
$2.50 M | $25.8 M | -19% | 4 |
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