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Weekend Box Office Predictions
January 10 - January 12, 2025
Published on January 9, 2025 at 7:45PM Pacific |
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| Before getting into this weekend's predictions, I wanted to mention that BoxOfficeReport is now on Bluesky. Our Bluesky profile can be found at: boxofficereport.bsky.social |
| Lionsgate's Den of Thieves 2: Pantera will look to lead the domestic box office upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The follow-up to 2018's Den of Thieves sees the return of director Christian Gudegast and stars Gerard Butler and O'Shea Jackson Jr. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is playing in 3,008 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Back in January of 2018, Den of Thieves (which was released by STXfilms) debuted with $15.21 million and went on to gross $44.95 million domestically. One opening weekend advantage Den of Thieves 2 will have over its predecessor is that Den of Thieves 2 isn't opening against any major new direct competition this weekend, whereas Den of Thieves opened the same weekend as 12 Strong (which debuted with $15.82 million). At the same time, while there is clearly a decent level of interest in Den of Thieves 2, the film also feels like a sequel that audiences weren't really asking for either. This week's fires in the Los Angeles area could also have a bit more of an impact on Den of Thieves 2 at the box office than most other films in the marketplace this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Den of Thieves 2: Pantera will open just ahead of its predecessor with a first place debut of $16.0 million this weekend. |
| Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King and Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will both look to continue to have a presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend, Mufasa: The Lion King moved into first place by declining 36.3 percent to gross $23.46 million, while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 decreased a respectable 42.3 percent to gross $21.36 million. Mufasa: The Lion King is likely to continue to hold up better than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 this weekend, especially with Mufasa: The Lion King continuing to play on IMAX screens and the added presence of Den of Thieves 2: Pantera in the marketplace potentially having slightly more of an effect on Sonic the Hedgehog 3 than on Mufasa: The Lion King. Look for Mufasa: The Lion King to decline 39.5 percent to place in second with $14.2 million and for Sonic the Hedgehog 3 to decrease 46.6 percent to follow in third place with $11.4 million. That would move Sonic the Hedgehog 3 past the $200 million domestic mark (with $204.9 million) and bring Mufasa: The Lion King to just under $190 million domestically over the same 24-day timeframe. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Focus' well-received Nosferatu could get an additional boost this weekend before Universal's Wolf Man opens next weekend, and decline a solid 35.1 percent to take fourth with $8.5 million. Animated family films can experience slowing the weekend after New Year's weekend, so Disney's Moana 2 could decrease 47.8 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $6.5 million. Disney / Searchlight's A Complete Unknown could decrease a very solid 31.6 percent to place in sixth with $5.6 million, Universal's Wicked could fall a sizable 50.9 percent to land in seventh with $4.9 million and A24's Babygirl could continue to hold up well by slowing just 31.0 percent to take eighth place with $3.1 million. |
| Opening in semi-wide release this weekend (in 870 locations) is Roadside Attractions' The Last Showgirl. The Gia Coppola directed drama stars Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis. Both Curtis (and especially) Anderson have generated awards season buzz for their performances in the film, which should help The Last Showgirl at the box office. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Last Showgirl will gross $2.8 million this weekend, to place in ninth among all films. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (Lionsgate) |
$16.0 M | $16.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$14.2 M | $189.8 M | -39% | 4 |
| 3 | Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) |
$11.4 M | $204.9 M | -47% | 4 |
| 4 | Nosferatu (Focus) |
$8.5 M | $83.6 M | -35% | 3 |
| 5 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$6.5 M | $434.8 M | -48% | 7 |
| 6 | A Complete Unknown (Disney / Searchlight) |
$5.6 M | $51.5 M | -32% | 3 |
| 7 | Wicked (Universal) |
$4.9 M | $458.8 M | -51% | 8 |
| 8 | Babygirl (A24) |
$3.1 M | $21.5 M | -31% | 3 |
| 9 | The Last Showgirl (Roadside) |
$2.8 M | $2.9 M | N/A | 2 |
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