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Weekend Box Office Predictions
January 3 - January 5, 2025
Published on January 2, 2025 at 9:15PM Pacific |
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| Before getting into this weekend's predictions, I wanted to mention that BoxOfficeReport is now on Bluesky. Our Bluesky profile can be found at: boxofficereport.bsky.social |
| On the heels of a very close race for first place last weekend between Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King; we could be in store for another fairly close race for first place between the two family films this weekend. Over the 3-day Christmas frame, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 declined a respectable 38.4 percent to gross $37.01 million, while Mufasa: The Lion King increased by a terrific 3.9 percent to take second with $36.80 million. With Mufasa: The Lion King having displayed better holding power than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 thus far, chances are good that Mufasa: The Lion King will come out ahead for first place this weekend. Though again, it will likely be fairly close between the two films, especially if Sonic the Hedgehog 3 remains more of a weekend film (and less of a holiday weekday film) than Mufasa: The Lion King, relatively speaking. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Mufasa: The Lion King will decline 34.8 percent this weekend for a first place take of $24.0 million and that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will decrease by 39.2 percent to place in second with $22.5 million. That would bring Sonic the Hedgehog 3 to just under $190 million domestically and Mufasa: The Lion King to just under $170 million domestically over the same 17-day window. |
| There will also likely be a very close three-way race for third place this weekend, between Focus' Nosferatu, Universal's Wicked and Disney's Moana 2. The three films were close to one another last weekend with Nosferatu taking third (and exceeding expectations) with $21.65 million, Wicked placing in fourth with $19.75 million (a 39.6 percent increase from the previous weekend) and Moana 2 following in fifth with $18.90 million (up a similar 43.1 percent from the previous frame). As a horror film in its second weekend of release, in a more typical situation Nosferatu would fall behind Wicked and Moana 2 in the rankings this weekend. However, Nosferatu is coming off of a three-day opening weekend that was deflated from the film opening on a Wednesday; while last weekend's holds for both Wicked and Moana 2 were obviously inflated by the Christmas weekend frame. Nosferatu will also receive a bit of a boost from opening in an additional 140 locations this weekend (for a total location count of 3,132 locations) and the film also looks to be holding onto a very high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. With all of that in mind, it wouldn't be surprising to see a nail-biter between the three films in question this weekend. Nosferatu could decline a solid 40.0 percent to take in $13.0 million, Wicked could decrease by 34.7 percent to gross $12.9 million and Moana 2 could slow by just 32.3 percent to gross $12.8 million. |
| Meanwhile, after respective three-day opening weekend grosses of $11.66 million and $4.49 million last weekend, Disney / Searchlight's A Complete Unknown and A24's Babygirl will both look to have a continued presence at the box office this weekend. The well-received A Complete Unknown could decline 33.9 percent to place in sixth with $7.7 million and Babygirl, which has been displaying encouraging initial holding power thus far, could decline a slim 24.3 percent to take seventh place with $3.4 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$24.0 M | $168.7 M | -35% | 3 |
| 2 | Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) |
$22.5 M | $188.8 M | -39% | 3 |
| 3 | Nosferatu (Focus) |
$13.0 M | $68.6 M | -40% | 2 |
| 4 | Wicked (Universal) |
$12.9 M | $453.7 M | -35% | 7 |
| 5 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$12.8 M | $425.4 M | -32% | 6 |
| 6 | A Complete Unknown (Disney / Searchlight) |
$7.7 M | $41.3 M | -34% | 2 |
| 7 | Babygirl (A24) |
$3.4 M | $14.8 M | -24% | 2 |
| 8 | Gladiator II (Paramount) |
$2.9 M | $169.1 M | -29% | 7 |
| 9 | Homestead (Angel Studios) |
$2.0 M | $17.5 M | -35% | 3 |
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