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Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 27 - December 29, 2024
Predictions chart published on December 25, 2024 at 5:15PM Pacific |
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| Written Weekend Predictions Update: |
| After having a comfortable first place debut of $60.12 million last weekend, Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will likely be in a much closer race for first place this weekend with Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King. While both Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King have significant appeal with family audiences, the video game based nature of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will surely lead to the film being more naturally front-loaded than Mufasa: The Lion King over the holidays. At the same time, in addition to the holidays, strong critical reviews and strong word of mouth will help Sonic the Hedgehog 3 have a stronger second weekend hold than Sonic the Hedgehog 2 had back in April of 2022 (Sonic the Hedgehog 2 declined 59.4 percent in its second weekend to gross $29.30 million). Sonic the Hedgehog 3 could decline a solid 39.3 percent to gross $36.5 million over the three-day frame and could take in $60.5 million for the extended five-day holiday frame beginning on Wednesday. |
| As mentioned, Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King should make up significant ground on Sonic the Hedgehog 3 in this weekend's race for first place. Last weekend Mufasa: The Lion King arrived below expectations with a second place start of $35.41 million, but all initial signs are pointing towards the film having a lengthy run going forward. Word of mouth for Mufasa: The Lion King among audiences looks to be far stronger than the film's mixed critical reviews, initial daily percentage holds for Mufasa: The Lion King have been very encouraging and pre-sales for the film suggest that Mufasa: The Lion King will build significant momentum on Christmas Day. Mufasa: The Lion King will also continue to benefit from continuing to play on higher priced IMAX and 3D screens. There may also prove to be quite a bit of overlap between the audiences for Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King; with that audience having been more likely to rush out to see Sonic the Hedgehog 3 last weekend, before also catching Mufasa: The Lion King over the holidays. Mufasa: The Lion King could decline a slim 11.0 percent to take in $31.5 million over the three-day frame and with strong Christmas Day and Boxing Day business, could gross $55.0 million over the extended five-day holiday frame. |
| This weekend's strongest new release looks to be Focus' Nosferatu. The Robert Eggers directed horror film is a remake of the classic 1922 silent film of the same name and stars Bill Skarsgård, Nicholas Hoult, Lily-Rose Depp, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin and Willem Dafoe. Nosferatu will be playing in 2,911 locations beginning on Wednesday, will see that location count increase slightly over the weekend to 2,992 locations and will have select IMAX showtimes. On the average, critical reviews for Nosferatu have been very good. Eggers' popularity as a director feels to have been growing with time (since the release of The Witch back in 2016 – Eggers' first film as a director) and that popularity looks like it will continue to grow with Nosferatu. Nosferatu has already received a B- rating on CinemaScore, which is solid for a horror film. Nosferatu should get off to a very nice start on Christmas Day and Boxing Day, but just how well the film holds up over the weekend is still a bit of a wild card at this point. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday starts of $20.0 million and $37.0 million for Nosferatu. |
| Universal's Wicked and Disney's Moana 2 will once again have a significant presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend Wicked took in $14.15 million to move just ahead of Moana 2 ($13.20 million) in the weekend rankings. Wicked will have a great chance of having this weekend's strongest percentage hold among wide releases, thanks in part to a sing along version of the film beginning to play on Christmas Day, in part to holding onto a very high percentage of the film's average showtimes per location from last weekend and in part to the holidays typically being a strong period for musicals at the box office. While Moana 2 will likely continue to remain more front-loaded than Wicked this weekend, Moana 2 could still have a strong hold of its own this weekend, especially over the three-day weekend itself. Wicked could increase an impressive 34.3 percent over last weekend to take in $19.0 million over the three-day weekend and could gross $33.5 million over the five-day holiday frame. Moana 2 could increase 6.0 percent over last weekend to gross $14.0 million over the three-day weekend and could take in $23.0 million over the five-day holiday frame. |
| The weekend's other major new wide release is Disney / Searchlight's A Complete Unknown. The James Mangold directed Bob Dylan biopic stars Timothée Chalamet as Dylan and also features Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook. A Complete Unknown is playing in 2,835 locations on Wednesday. A Complete Unknown has gone over fairly well with critics and looks to be going over even better with initial audiences after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore. Even with the strong initial audience reaction to the film, there is still the possibility that A Complete Unknown could be quite front-loaded towards Christmas Day with regard to the film's five-day start (especially since A Complete Unknown also had Tuesday preview shows that began at 2PM). With that said, after likely experiencing initial front-loading this weekend, there's also still a real possibility that A Complete Unknown could stabilize beyond this weekend. As for this weekend, BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and extended five-day holiday grosses of $12.5 million and $24.0 million for A Complete Unknown. |
| Weekend Predictions Chart Update: |
| Due to Christmas Day time constraints, this weekend's predictions article will appear late Wednesday night. This weekend's box office predictions chart can be found below. |
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3-Day & 5-Day predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | 3-Day Weekend Gross |
5-Day Holiday Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) |
$36.5 M | $60.5 M | $138.2 M | -39% | 2 |
| 2 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$31.5 M | $55.0 M | $104.7 M | -11% | 2 |
| 3 | Nosferatu (Focus) |
$20.0 M | $37.0 M | $37.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Wicked (Universal) |
$19.0 M | $33.5 M | $426.0 M | +34% | 6 |
| 5 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$14.0 M | $23.0 M | $389.3 M | +6% | 5 |
| 6 | A Complete Unknown (Disney / Searchlight) |
$12.5 M | $24.0 M | $24.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | Babygirl (A24) |
$5.0 M | $9.3 M | $9.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Gladiator II (Paramount) |
$4.1 M | $7.0 M | $163.2 M | -10% | 6 |
| 9 | Homestead (Angel Studios) |
$3.0 M | $5.3 M | $12.8 M | -50% | 2 |
| 10 | The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$2.2 M | $4.0 M | $4.0 M | NEW | 1 |
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