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Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 20 - December 22, 2024
Published on December 19, 2024 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will look to lead the pre-Christmas frame with ease upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The third installment of the video game based franchise sees the return of series director Jeff Fowler, series star Jim Carrey and the animated characters Sonic, Tails and Knuckles (voiced by Ben Schwartz, Colleen O'Shaughnessey and Idris Elba). Sonic the Hedgehog 3 also introduces Shadow the Hedgehog (voiced by Keanu Reeves) to the film series, which has helped build even further interest in the film. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is playing in 3,761 locations this weekend and has traditional Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM (select fan event screenings for the film start earlier on Thursday at 3PM). While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 isn't opening as wide as 2022's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 did (4,234 locations), Sonic the Hedgehog 3 looks to be receiving more average showtimes per location than Sonic the Hedgehog 2 did, which will help make up much of the difference. On top of the already strong interest in Sonic the Hedgehog 3, critical reviews for the film have been the strongest to date for the franchise, which could help Sonic the Hedgehog 3 further build upon the box office performance of Sonic the Hedgehog 2. Back in April of 2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 debuted with $72.11 million, before going on to gross $190.87 million domestically. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 could open higher than its predecessor with an impressive $79.0 million launch this weekend, before potentially significantly outpacing the overall domestic performance of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 beyond this weekend thanks in part to the holiday season. |
| Also arriving in theatres this weekend is Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King. The Barry Jenkins directed photorealistic animated film is a prequel to the 2019 remake of The Lion King. The ensemble vocal cast for Mufasa: The Lion King includes Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Tiffany Boone, Donald Glover and Mads Mikkelsen. Mufasa: The Lion King is opening in 4,100 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX and 3D screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. While 2019's The Lion King was a massive hit at the box office; opening with $191.77 million domestically before going on to finish its domestic run with $543.64 million, it also feels like The Lion King was a film that audiences weren't truly craving a follow-up for. As was the case with the 2019 version of The Lion King, critical reviews for Mufasa: The Lion King have been mixed. Furthermore, due to audience overlap, fellow Disney release Moana 2 and Universal's Wicked both having a continued presence at the holiday box office, is likely to have more of a negative impact on Mufasa: The Lion King than on Sonic the Hedgehog 3. Higher priced IMAX and 3D tickets and the location count advantage are factors that will help out Mufasa: The Lion King somewhat in comparison to Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and odds are strong that Mufasa: The Lion King will be more naturally back-loaded throughout the holidays than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will be. A better comparison for Mufasa: The Lion King could prove to be last year's Wonka, which had a pre-Christmas December debut of $39.01 million, before going on to gross $218.40 million domestically. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Mufasa: The Lion King will start out in a distant second place this weekend with $41.5 million. |
| As mentioned, Universal's Wicked and Disney's Moana 2 will both look to have a continued presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend Moana 2 declined 48.3 percent to lead the domestic box office for a third consecutive frame with a weekend take of $26.50 million, while Wicked was down a solid 37.9 percent to place in a close second with $22.65 million. With both Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King having significant appeal with family audiences, Moana 2 is likely to continue to decline faster than Wicked 2 this weekend, which could lead to Wicked moving just ahead of Moana 2 for third place in this weekend's domestic rankings. Look for Wicked to decrease 38.2 percent from last weekend for a weekend take of $14.0 million and for Moana 2 to decline 50.9 percent to follow closely behind in fourth place with $13.0 million. That will move Moana 2 past the $350 million domestic mark, while Wicked will continue to move closer to reaching the $400 million domestic milestone. |
| This weekend also sees the release of Angel Studios' Homestead. The Ben Smallbone directed thriller stars Neal McDonough, Dawn Olivieri, Bailey Chase and Kearran Giovanni. Homestead is playing in 1,886 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Angel Studios has had a handful of films open in the range of $4.3 million to $5.5 million, including the $5.05 million start of Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. last month. Homestead will likely open in that same range this weekend (and perhaps towards the higher end of that range) with a fifth place start of $5.3 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Paramount's Gladiator II could decrease a solid 39.9 percent to place in sixth with $4.6 million, Sony's poorly received Kraven the Hunter could fall a very sharp 72.7 percent to land in seventh with $3.0 million and Amazon MGM Studios' Red One could decline a respectable 41.3 percent to follow in eighth place with $2.5 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) |
$79.0 M | $79.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) |
$41.5 M | $41.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Wicked (Universal) |
$14.0 M | $384.3 M | -38% | 5 |
| 4 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$13.0 M | $358.8 M | -51% | 4 |
| 5 | Homestead (Angel Studios) |
$5.3 M | $5.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Gladiator II (Paramount) |
$4.6 M | $154.0 M | -40% | 5 |
| 7 | Kraven the Hunter (Sony / Columbia) |
$3.0 M | $17.3 M | -73% | 2 |
| 8 | Red One (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$2.5 M | $96.4 M | -41% | 6 |
| 9 | The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$1.5 M | $7.6 M | -67% | 2 |
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