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Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 13 - December 15, 2024
Published on December 12, 2024 at 7:00PM Pacific |
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| Disney's Moana 2 will look to lead the box office for a third consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend Moana 2 declined 63.3 percent to take in $51.29 million, which easily represented the largest gross ever for the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend. While Moana 2 has been more front-loaded than usual thus far for a high-profile animated film released over Thanksgiving weekend, the film also looks to be stabilizing now, as on Wednesday Moana 2 was down a respectable 43.4 percent from the previous Wednesday. This weekend's percentage decline for Moana 2 will likely be in the same neighborhood as the film's week-to-week decline on Wednesday. Look for Moana 2 to decline 43.5 percent from last weekend for a third weekend gross of $29.0 million. |
| Universal's Wicked will also look to remain strong this weekend. The blockbuster musical declined 55.1 percent last weekend to hold steady in second place with $36.45 million (which represented the second largest gross ever for the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend). Like Moana 2, Wicked should also hold up significantly better this weekend than last weekend. On Wednesday, Wicked was down a very solid 33.1 percent from the previous Wednesday. Wicked could also get a bit of a boost this weekend from both of this weekend's new wide releases (Sony's Kraven the Hunter and Warner Bros.'s The Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim) looking to be headed for soft starts. A decline of just 34.2 percent would transfer into a second place take of $24.0 million for Wicked this weekend. |
| After multiple release date delays that have spanned nearly two years, Sony's Kraven the Hunter arrives in theatres this weekend. The comic-book based film set in the Spider-Man Universe was directed by J. C. Chandor and stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Ariana DeBose and Russell Crowe. Kraven the Hunter is playing in 3,211 locations this weekend, will receive select IMAX showtimes and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. On the average, critical reviews for Kraven the Hunter have been especially bad, which obviously isn't a good sign for the film this weekend and beyond. Back in February Sony's Madame Web started out with respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $15.34 million and $23.54 million. At this point, it looks likely that Kraven the Hunter won't even be able to reach the three-day opening weekend take of Madame Web, especially since pre-Christmas December opening weekends tend to be deflated to begin with. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Kraven the Hunter will debut in third place this weekend with a modest $12.0 million. |
| Also arriving in theatres this weekend is Warner Bros. and New Line's The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim. The anime film set in The Lord of the Rings universe was directed by Kenji Kamiyama and features the vocal talent of Brian Cox, Gaia Wise, Luke Pasqualino and Miranda Otto. The War of the Rohirrim is playing in 2,602 locations this weekend, will receive select IMAX showtimes and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Critical reviews for The War of the Rohirrim have been mixed. As both a spin-off and a modestly budgeted anime film, there is understandably far less anticipation for The War of the Rohirrim than there is for a typical Lord of the Rings project. However, even taking that into account, The War of the Rohirrim could still be headed for an underwhelming domestic launch this weekend, especially after the film started out with just $1.8 million internationally this past weekend from 31 international markets (albeit mostly smaller markets). The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim could open with $6.7 million, which would place the film in fifth this weekend. |
| Kraven the Hunter and The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim both likely getting off to slow starts this weekend could in turn help Paramount's Gladiator II hold up better this weekend. Last weekend Gladiator II declined 59.5 percent to place in third with $12.57 million. This weekend Gladiator II should stabilize significantly, as the expensive sequel could decline a solid 34.8 percent to place in fourth with $8.2 million. |
| Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studio's Red One and Paramount's IMAX exclusive re-issue of Interstellar should both continue to have a presence at the box office this weekend. Although today's arrival of Red One on Amazon Prime Video should take a bit of a toll on the film at the box office going forward, Red One has been holding up so well during the midweek this week that the Christmas themed film could decrease by only 24.4 percent this weekend to take sixth place with $5.3 million. And after grossing a terrific $4.60 million last weekend from 165 IMAX locations, this weekend Interstellar will be playing in 321 locations. With the increase in screens and the film having performed very well during the midweek (the film's re-issue gross is up to $7.83 million through Wednesday), Interstellar could be in store for an exceptional hold this weekend. A very slim decline of 6.6 percent from last weekend would give Interstellar a seventh place gross of $4.3 million this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$29.0 M | $340.0 M | -43% | 3 |
| 2 | Wicked (Universal) |
$24.0 M | $360.6 M | -34% | 4 |
| 3 | Kraven the Hunter (Sony / Columbia) |
$12.0 M | $12.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Gladiator II (Paramount) |
$8.2 M | $146.4 M | -35% | 4 |
| 5 | The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$6.7 M | $6.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Red One (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$5.3 M | $93.5 M | -24% | 5 |
| 7 | Interstellar (IMAX re-issue) (Paramount) |
$4.3 M | $13.1 M | -7% | 2 |
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