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Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 6 - December 8, 2024
Published on December 5, 2024 at 8:00PM Pacific |
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| The post-Thanksgiving weekend frame will be stronger than usual at the box office this year thanks to the combination of Disney's Moana 2 and Universal's Wicked, as the two films combined will have a good chance of grossing over $100 million together this weekend. Last weekend Moana 2 had the largest Thanksgiving weekend performance ever with respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $139.79 million and $225.44 million, while Wicked had the third largest Thanksgiving weekend performance ever (behind only Moana 2 and 2019's Frozen II), with respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $81.17 million and $118.27 million. With grosses that large, continued strong word of mouth for both films and not much expected from this weekend's handful of lower-profile new releases, Moana 2 and Wicked will both have no problem continuing to soar at the box office this weekend. Non-holiday themed animated films typically experience significant declines the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend (thanks in part to Thanksgiving weekend grosses being inflated for animated family films), so odds are strong that Moana 2 will experience a sharper weekend decline this weekend than Wicked will. Even with that being the case, Moana 2 should still remain comfortably ahead of Wicked for first place this weekend. Look for Moana 2 to decline 57.8 percent from last weekend for a strong second weekend gross of $59.0 million, which would already move Moana 2 past the $300 million domestic mark. Wicked could decrease a respectable 47.0 percent from last weekend to place in a strong second with $43.0 million, which would also move Wicked past the $300 million domestic mark. |
| Paramount's Gladiator II and Amazon MGM Studios' Red One will both also continue to have a presence at the box office this weekend. Last weekend Gladiator II declined 43.6 percent to take in $31.03 million over the three-day frame, while Red One was down a very slim 3.7 percent to gross $12.73 million over the three-day weekend. Gladiator II will take a bit of an additional hit this weekend from losing IMAX showtimes to the exclusive IMAX reissue of Paramount's Interstellar. Holiday themed family films typically continue to hold up very well the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend, so Red One is likely to experience another good hold this weekend. Gladiator II could see a 54.9 percent decline from last weekend to place in third with $14.0 million and Red One could decrease by 37.2 percent to follow in fourth place with $8.0 million. |
| This weekend's top new release is pretty much guaranteed to be Prathyangira Cinemas and AA Creations' release of Pushpa 2: The Rule. The Telugu-language action sequel from India, directed by Sukumar and starring Allu Arjun, started out with an estimated $3.33 million from preview shows on Wednesday (which will be counted towards Thursday's opening day performance). Films from India are often especially front-loaded towards previews and that is likely to be the case for Pushpa 2: The Rule this weekend. Earlier this year fellow Prathyangira Cinemas / AA Creations release Kalki 2898 AD had a preview gross of $3.9 million, so Pushpa 2: The Rule will likely come in a bit below the $11.23 million four-day start of Kalki 2898 AD (including previews). Pushpa 2: The Rule could be headed for respective three-day weekend and four-day grosses of $5.0 million and $9.5 million, to take fifth place this weekend. |
| As for some of this weekend's other new releases, A24's year 2000 comedy Y2K could start out with a modest $3.3 million (from 2,108 locations), Paramount's IMAX exclusive re-issue of Interstellar could gross a noteworthy $2.0 million (from 165 IMAX locations) and Sony and Crunchyroll's latest anime release Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- could take in $1.6 million (from 846 locations). |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$59.0 M | $307.0 M | -58% | 2 |
| 2 | Wicked (Universal) |
$43.0 M | $328.6 M | -47% | 3 |
| 3 | Gladiator II (Paramount) |
$14.0 M | $134.2 M | -55% | 3 |
| 4 | Red One (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$8.0 M | $86.8 M | -37% | 4 |
| 5 | Pushpa 2: The Rule (Prathyangira Cinemas / AA Creations) |
$5.0 M | $9.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Y2K (A24) |
$3.3 M | $3.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (Lionsgate) |
$2.1 M | $35.1 M | -35% | 5 |
| 8 | Interstellar (IMAX re-issue) (Paramount) |
$2.0 M | $2.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- (Sony / Crunchyroll) |
$1.6 M | $1.6 M | NEW | 1 |
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