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Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 29 - December 1, 2024
Published on November 27, 2024 at 11:00AM Pacific |
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| The holiday box office is set to continue to soar this weekend with the release of Disney's Moana 2. The highly anticipated computer animated sequel to 2016's Moana was off to an exceptional start on Tuesday with an estimated $13.8 million from preview shows that began at 2PM. Moana 2 easily set a new record for the largest Tuesday preview gross ever for a Thanksgiving weekend release, as the film's preview gross came in $10.0 million higher than the $3.8 million preview gross of 2018's Ralph Break the Internet (which went on to have respective three-day opening weekend and five-day starts of $56.24 million and $84.75 million). Moana 2 will be playing in 4,200 locations beginning on Wednesday and will be splitting IMAX screens over the holiday frame with Gladiator II and Wicked. Moana 2 looks to be receiving a very high amount of average showtimes per location this weekend to help meet the initial demand for the film. Critical reviews for Moana 2 have been fairly mixed, but it doesn't look like they will have an impact on the film, at least not over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend frame (reviews may still prove to have an impact beyond this weekend). Moana 2 was directed by David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller and features the vocal talent of Auliʻi Cravalho and Dwayne Johnson. |
| Tuesday's preview gross for Moana 2 came in slightly higher than the $13.0 million Thursday previews gross of Inside Out 2 earlier this year. With the similar preview grosses, Moana 2 could very well be headed for a similar five-day start as Inside Out 2, which grossed $154.20 million over its three-day opening weekend and $205.45 million during its first five days of release (Friday through Tuesday), though beyond this weekend it's likely that Moana 2 will be more front-loaded than Inside Out 2 was. With Tuesday's massive preview gross in mind, BoxOfficeReport is estimating that Moana 2 will debut with respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $126.0 million and $207.0 million. That would absolutely demolish the current Thanksgiving opening weekend record, set by Frozen back in 2013 with respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $67.39 million and $93.59 million. From the five-day start alone, Moana 2 would also already be approaching the $248.76 million final domestic gross of Moana. |
| In addition to the record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend start of Moana 2, this weekend will also see the Glicked combination continue to have a major presence at the box office. Last weekend Universal's Wicked was off to a strong start with $112.51 million. Critical reviews for the film have been very strong and word of mouth also looks to be strong given the film's A rating on CinemaScore. While Wicked will obviously have to deal with the new competition from Moana 2, there is still plenty of room for Wicked to continue to excel this weekend, especially since the film is holding onto a fairly high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Wicked will decline a very solid 40.0 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $67.5 million and that the film will take in $99.0 million over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend frame. That would already place Wicked in position to reach the $250 million domestic mark soon after the end of this weekend. |
| The other half of Glicked; Paramount's Gladiator II, is coming off of a second place start of $55.03 million. Critical reviews for Gladiator II have been good, but not great and the expensive sequel looks to be going over similarly with audiences after receiving a solid B rating on CinemaScore. Gladiator II will continue to play on IMAX screens this weekend, though the film will be losing some of its IMAX showtimes to Moana 2. It appears that Gladiator II will likely experience a sharper second weekend percentage decline than Wicked will this weekend, though the percentages could still be close, especially since the arrival of Moana 2 will likely take more of a toll on Wicked than it will on Gladiator II. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Gladiator II will decrease a respectable 42.8 percent over the three-day weekend to place in third with $31.5 million and that the film will gross $45.5 million over the five-day holiday frame. That would take Gladiator II beyond the $100 million domestic mark. |
| In addition to being part of this weekend's top film, Dwayne Johnson will also have the fourth place film this weekend, as Amazon MGM Studio's Red One is likely to hold up very well over the holiday frame. Although Red One declined a sharp 58.8 percent last weekend to take third with $13.22 million, that hold was significantly better than it first appears given that Red One lost a large percentage of its average showtimes per location last weekend in comparison to the film's opening frame. With the film looking to hold onto a significantly higher percentage of its showtimes per location this weekend and Thanksgiving weekend historically being very kind to Christmas themed films, Red One is highly likely to stabilize in a big way this weekend. Look for Red One to decrease just 16.8 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $11.0 million and for the film to take in $15.5 million over the five-day frame. |
| As for some of this weekend's other notable holdovers, BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and five-day holiday grosses of $3.0 million and $4.3 million for Lionsgate's The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, $2.4 million and $3.4 million for Sony's Venom: The Last Dance and $2.3 million and $3.4 million for Angel Studios' Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. |
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3-Day predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Moana 2 (Disney) |
$126.0 M | $207.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Wicked (Universal) |
$67.5 M | $243.9 M | -40% | 2 |
| 3 | Gladiator II (Paramount) |
$31.5 M | $112.7 M | -43% | 2 |
| 4 | Red One (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$11.0 M | $72.8 M | -17% | 3 |
| 5 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (Lionsgate) |
$3.0 M | $31.5 M | -13% | 4 |
| 6 | Venom: The Last Dance (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.4 M | $141.1 M | -38% | 6 |
| 7 | Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. (Angel Studios) |
$2.3 M | $9.7 M | -54% | 2 |
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