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Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 22 - November 24, 2024
Published on November 21, 2024 at 7:45PM Pacific |
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| In what is commonly being referred to as Glicked; this weekend sees the release of Universal's Wicked and Paramount's Gladiator II. While the Glicked combination isn't expected to reach the same opening weekend heights as last year's Barbenheimer phenomenon (the opening weekend combination of Barbie and Oppenheimer), the combination of Wicked and Gladiator II is still turning into a moviegoing event in its own right this pre-Thanksgiving weekend frame. |
| Universal's Wicked, the long-awaited theatrical version of the popular stage musical of the same name; is expected to arrive in style at the box office this weekend. Wicked was directed by Jon M. Chu and stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. In addition to the built-in audience from the stage musical, Grande's fanbase is also expected to help Wicked at the box office in a big way. Wicked is playing in 3,888 locations this weekend, will be getting select IMAX showtimes at select locations and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM (Wicked also had early access shows on Monday and Wednesday). Critical reviews for Wicked have been very strong and it seems highly likely that the film is going to go over very well with audiences as well. That could potentially lead to Wicked holding up well throughout the holiday season, regardless of the large initial rush-out this weekend. Wicked should be helped out by a family friendly PG rating, and opening weekend demand for Wicked could receive a further boost from there being a number of moviegoers who will want to catch the film before Disney's highly anticipated Moana 2 arrives theatres this coming Wednesday. While Wicked will have a high amount of showtimes per location this weekend, the film's lengthy 160-minute run-time and opening against Gladiator II, could still potentially lead to some capacity issues. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Wicked will debut with a very strong $121.0 million this weekend, which would represent the third largest opening weekend of 2024 to date. |
| Paramount's Gladiator II, a long-awaited film in its own right, is a follow-up to 2000's Gladiator. Like its predecessor, Gladiator II was also directed by Ridley Scott. Gladiator II stars Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Connie Nielsen and Denzel Washington. Gladiator II is opening in 3,573 locations this weekend, looks to be getting most, but not all, IMAX showtimes this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. On the average, critical reviews for Gladiator II have been good, but not great. Last weekend Gladiator II was off to a strong international start with an estimated $87.0 million from 63 international markets. The film's international start is a promising sign for this weekend's domestic launch. The R-rated Gladiator II also has a fairly long run-time (148 minutes), which in combination with the film's location count not being ultra-wide by current standards and Gladiator II receiving less average showtimes per location than Wicked this weekend, could potentially lead to some capacity issues for Gladiator II in its own right this weekend. Looking back at Barbenheimer; the opening weekend take for Oppenheimer was roughly half of that of Barbie. Gladiator II could potentially be in store for a similar ratio in comparison to Wicked this weekend. Look for Gladiator II to start out with a healthy $60.0 million this weekend. |
| After debuting in line with consensus expectations last weekend with $32.11 million, Amazon MGM Studio's Red One is likely to experience a sharp second weekend decline this weekend. Although the poorly reviewed Christmas themed adventure comedy looks to be going over far better with audiences than it has with critics (Red One received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore), Red One is nonetheless going to take an initial hit this weekend from losing a significant amount of showtimes per location in comparison to last weekend, as well as its IMAX screens, as a result of Wicked and Gladiator II both entering the marketplace this weekend. Red One could decrease by 64.8 percent this weekend to land in third place with $11.3 million, before potentially stabilizing over Thanksgiving weekend and throughout the rest of the lead-up to Christmas. |
| This weekend also sees the release of Angel Studios' Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. The World War II era drama about Dietrich Bonhoeffer was directed by Todd Komarnicki and stars Jonas Dassler as Bonhoeffer. Bonhoeffer is playing in 1,900 locations this weekend and Thursday preview shows for the film began very early at 12PM. Thus far, critical reviews for the film have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. In its short history as a distributor, Angel Studios has had a handful of films open in the range of $4.3 million to $5.5 million and it appears that Bonhoeffer could be headed for a debut in that same neighborhood this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. will open in fourth place this weekend with $4.9 million. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Sony's Venom: The Last Dance could decline a sizable 50.9 percent to place in fifth with $3.6 million and Lionsgate's well-received The Best Christmas Pageant Ever could decrease a solid 39.1 percent to follow in sixth place with $3.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Wicked (Universal) |
$121.0 M | $121.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Gladiator II (Paramount) |
$60.0 M | $60.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Red One (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$11.3 M | $50.8 M | -65% | 2 |
| 4 | Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. (Angel Studios) |
$4.9 M | $4.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Venom: The Last Dance (Sony / Columbia) |
$3.6 M | $133.4 M | -51% | 5 |
| 6 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (Lionsgate) |
$3.2 M | $25.2 M | -39% | 3 |
| 7 | The Wild Robot (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$2.2 M | $141.0 M | -48% | 9 |
| 8 | Heretic (A24) |
$2.1 M | $24.5 M | -59% | 3 |
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