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Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 15 - November 17, 2024
Published on November 14, 2024 at 8:15PM Pacific |
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| Amazon MGM Studios' Red One is set to comfortably lead the box office upon entering the domestic marketplace this weekend. The expensive Christmas themed adventure comedy from Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Jumanji: The Next Level director Jake Kasdan stars Dwayne Johnson, Chris Evans, Lucy Liu and J.K. Simmons. Red One is playing in 4,032 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM (the film also had early access shows this past Sunday). Red One opened internationally this past weekend with a so-so debut of $28.0 million (Red One is being handled internationally by Warner Bros.). Critical reviews for Red One have been mostly negative. While those reviews will make it harder for Red One to break out at the box office, at the same time they likely won't prevent the film from having a presence at the box office this weekend and in the continued lead-up to Christmas after this weekend. This weekend's domestic start for Red One could very well be in the same neighborhood as last weekend's international start. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Red One will start out with $27.5 million this weekend. |
| After leading the box office for each of the past three frames; Sony's Venom: The Last Dance will look to place in second this weekend. Last weekend Venom: The Last Dance declined a solid 38.6 percent to gross $15.90 million. With Venom: The Last Dance losing its IMAX screens this weekend, the film is likely to fall off at least slightly more this weekend than it did last weekend. At the same time, Venom: The Last Dance will still benefit this weekend from being the highest profile alternative for those moviegoers not interested in seeing Red One. Look for Venom: The Last Dance to decline a still respectable 40.9 percent this weekend to take in $9.4 million. |
| It could prove to be a close three-way race for third place this weekend between Lionsgate's The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, A24's Heretic and Universal's The Wild Robot. Last weekend saw The Best Christmas Pageant Ever debut with $10.77 million and Heretic open with an estimated $11.02 million (though unofficial industry estimates place the film's debut nearly on par with that of The Best Christmas Pageant Ever). The Best Christmas Pageant Ever looks to be going over better with audiences than Heretic has; The Best Christmas Pageant Ever received an A rating on CinemaScore, while Heretic received a C+ rating, but at the same time last weekend's opening weekend performance for The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was inflated thanks in part to very strong early access shows back on Saturday, November 2. Red One will also likely take less of a toll on Heretic this weekend than it will on The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. The Wild Robot, which was down a slim 11.2 percent last weekend to gross $6.61 million, will no doubt have the best hold of the three films this weekend, but it may stay just behind both The Best Christmas Pageant Ever and Heretic in this weekend's rankings due in part to Red One entering the marketplace. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever could decline 47.1 percent to take in $5.7 million, Heretic could decrease by 51.0 percent to follow closely behind with $5.4 million and The Wild Robot could slow by just 19.9 percent to gross a similar $5.3 million. |
| This weekend will also see Disney and Searchlight's A Real Pain expand to semi-wide release. The critically acclaimed comedy drama was directed by Jesse Eisenberg and stars Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin. A Real Pain is playing in 1,185 locations this weekend. A Real Pain has had a very solid two-week platform launch (having grossed $0.72 million through Wednesday) and this past weekend the film had a nice expansion upon going from 4 locations to 12 locations. That could be a sign of A Real Pain being able to maintain momentum as the film continues to expand. Last weekend NEON's Anora grossed $2.52 million upon expanding to 1,104 locations and it's possible that A Real Pain could have a similar performance this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that A Real Pain will take in $2.4 million this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Red One (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$27.5 M | $27.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Venom: The Last Dance (Sony / Columbia) |
$9.4 M | $129.6 M | -41% | 4 |
| 3 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (Lionsgate) |
$5.7 M | $20.2 M | -47% | 2 |
| 4 | Heretic (A24) |
$5.4 M | $20.6 M | -51% | 2 |
| 5 | The Wild Robot (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$5.3 M | $138.8 M | -20% | 8 |
| 6 | Smile 2 (Paramount) |
$3.7 M | $66.4 M | -28% | 5 |
| 7 | Conclave (Focus) |
$3.1 M | $26.8 M | -25% | 4 |
| 8 | A Real Pain (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.4 M | $3.1 M | +715% | 3 |
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