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Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 8 - November 10, 2024
Published on November 7, 2024 at 8:45PM Pacific |
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| Sony's Venom: The Last Dance will look to make it three weekends in a row at the top of the box office this weekend, but the comic book based sequel is likely to find itself in a close race for first place over the frame with A24's Heretic. After a softer than expected opening weekend performance, last weekend Venom: The Last Dance had a stronger than expected second weekend hold by declining 49.2 percent to gross $25.90 million. Venom: The Last Dance will likely continue to stabilize this weekend, especially since the film will be continuing to hold onto IMAX screens. At the same time, potential stabilization for Venom: The Last DanceHeretic having much more of a presence at the box office this weekend than Here had at the box office last weekend. Venom: The Last Dance could decline a solid 40.2 percent to take in $15.5 million this weekend. Another aspect to keep in mind about this weekend's box office is that while the weekend will officially be a three-day weekend, with Veterans Day falling on Monday this weekend will act like an unofficial four-day weekend with strong Monday grosses. |
| A24's Heretic appears set to make an impact at the box office upon entering the marketplace this weekend. The R-rated horror thriller was directed by Scott Beck and Bryan Woods and stars Hugh Grant, Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East. Heretic is opening in 3,221 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 7PM. Heretic has gone over very well with critics, which is likely to give the film an opening weekend boost at the box office. Earlier this year NEON's Longlegs broke out with an opening weekend take of $22.40 million. While Heretic isn't expected to open that high this weekend, Heretic should benefit from appealing to the same moviegoers that Longlegs appealed to earlier this year. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Heretic will open with $14.3 million. That would represent the second largest opening weekend ever for A24, behind only the $25.54 million start of Civil War earlier this year and just ahead of the $13.58 million launch of 2018's Hereditary. |
| Also opening in theatres this weekend is Lionsgate's The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. The Christmas comedy aimed at faith-based audiences was directed by Dallas Jenkins and stars Judy Greer, Pete Holmes, Molly Belle Wright and Lauren Graham. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever is playing in 3,020 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. Thus far The Best Christmas Pageant Ever has also gone over well with critics as well. Earlier this year Lionsgate released Ordinary Angels in February and Unsung Hero in April. Both of those films were also aimed towards faith-based audiences, with Unsung Hero starting out with $7.73 million and Ordinary Angels having debuted with $6.16 million. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever could open in the same neighborhood as both of those films, though The Best Christmas Pageant Ever is likely to hold up better thanks to opening during the holiday season. Look for The Best Christmas Pageant Ever to debut in third place this weekend with $7.6 million. |
| Last weekend Universal and DreamWorks Animation's The Wild Robot and Focus' Conclave both held up very well, as The Wild Robot increased by 9.4 percent to place in second with $7.45 million and Conclave had a second weekend decline of just 23.7 percent to take fourth with $5.04 million. Both films should continue to hold up very well this weekend and Conclave will be getting an additional boost from playing in 487 more locations this weekend than last weekend (for a total location count of 2,283 locations this weekend). The Wild Robot could decline 15.4 percent to take fourth place this weekend with $6.3 million, while Conclave could decrease by a very slim 10.7 percent to follow in fifth with $4.5 million. |
| This weekend also sees NEON's Anora expand to semi-wide release. Last weekend the critically acclaimed Sean Baker directed film grossed $1.81 million from just 253 locations. Through Wednesday, Anora has grossed a very promising $4.58 million. This weekend Anora could gross $3.2 million, which would represent a 77.3 percent increase over last weekend's performance. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Venom: The Last Dance (Sony / Columbia) |
$15.5 M | $114.0 M | -40% | 3 |
| 2 | Heretic (A24) |
$14.3 M | $14.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (Lionsgate) |
$7.6 M | $7.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Wild Robot (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$6.3 M | $130.5 M | -15% | 7 |
| 5 | Conclave (Focus) |
$4.5 M | $21.9 M | -11% | 3 |
| 6 | Smile 2 (Paramount) |
$4.1 M | $59.5 M | -39% | 4 |
| 7 | Anora (NEON) |
$3.2 M | $8.0 M | +77% | 4 |
| 8 | Here (Sony / TriStar / Miramax) |
$2.7 M | $9.8 M | -45% | 2 |
| 9 | We Live in Time (A24) |
$2.1 M | $21.4 M | -40% | 5 |
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