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4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
August 30 - September 2, 2024
Published on August 29, 2024 at 7:00PM Pacific |
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| With none of this weekend's new releases expected to make a major impact at the box office, Disney's Deadpool & Wolverine is set to lead the domestic weekend box office for the fifth time over the past six frames. Last weekend Deadpool & Wolverine moved
back into first place by declining a solid 39.0 percent to gross $18.31 million. Event level films still in the marketplace come Labor Day weekend tend to hold up very well over Labor Day weekend and that will likely be the case for Deadpool & Wolverine this weekend.
Deadpool & Wolverine will also get an added boost from getting some IMAX showtimes back this weekend, and could also get an additional boost from moviegoers who want to catch the film one more time before Warner Bros.'s highly anticipated Beetlejuice Beetlejuice enters the
marketplace next weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Deadpool & Wolverine will decline just 20.8 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $14.5 million and gross $18.7 million over the four-day holiday frame (which would be a 2.1 percent increase over last weekend's three-day frame).
That would move Deadpool & Wolverine past the $600 million domestic mark. |
| Disney and 20th Century's Alien: Romulus and Sony's It Ends With Us took second and third place last weekend and are likely to remain in second and third place this weekend. Alien: Romulus experienced a sharp, but understandable 61.0 percent second weekend
decline last weekend to gross $16.36 million, while It Ends With Us was down a sizable 51.1 percent to take in $11.64 million. With the holiday weekend, both films should hold up better this weekend than they did last weekend, though Alien: Romulus will have to deal with losing some of its IMAX
showtimes this weekend to both Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters. Alien: Romulus could decrease a respectable 45.0 percent over the three-day frame to take in $9.0 million and gross $11.4 million over the four-day weekend
(which would represent a 30.3 percent decline from last weekend's three-day frame). It Ends With Us could decline 32.1 percent to gross $7.9 million over the three-day weekend and gross $10.4 million over the four-day frame (which would be a 10.7 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day gross). |
| The weekend's two higher profile new wide releases are ShowBiz Direct's Reagan and Sony's AfrAId. Reagan is a biopic of President Ronald Reagan, which was directed by Sean McNamara and stars Dennis Quaid, Penelope Ann Miller and Jon Voight. AfrAId is a PG-13 rated
horror thriller dealing with smart home AI, which was directed by Chris Weitz and stars John Cho and Katherine Waterston. Both films have Thursday previews, with preview shows for Reagan starting early at 2PM and preview shows for AfrAId starting a bit later at 4PM. Not much is expected from either film at
the box office this weekend. Reagan likely has slightly more break-out potential of the two films, but that potential could also be limited by the film representing the first release for new distributor ShowBiz Direct. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day starts of $6.4 million
and $8.0 million for Reagan, and respective three-day and four-day starts of $5.8 million and $7.2 million for AfrAId. |
| Universal's Twisters could find itself in the same neighborhood as Reagan and AfrAId on this weekend's box office chart. Twisters has held up well throughout most of its run thus far and as mentioned, the film will be getting some IMAX showtimes back this
weekend (as well as 4DX screens). In addition, Twisters also looks to be getting a showtime increase when it comes to traditional screens at many theatres this weekend. Look for Twisters to decline a very slim 1.7 percent over the three-day frame to gross $6.0 million and for the film to take
in $7.8 million over the four-day frame (which would be an exceptional 27.8 percent increase over last weekend's three-day performance). |
| As for some of last weekend's new releases, Amazon MGM Studio's Blink Twice is coming off of a fourth place start of $7.30 million and Sony / AFFIRM's The Forge is coming off of a similar fifth place debut of $6.65 million. Faith-based dramas from the Kendrick Brothers have a
history of holding up well at the box office, so The Forge is likely to move ahead of Blink Twice in this weekend's rankings (The Forge also received an A+ rating on CinemaScore). The Forge could decrease just 26.3 percent over the three-day frame to gross $4.9 million and could
gross $6.7 million over the four-day frame (which would be a 0.7 percent increase over last weekend's three-day start). Blink Twice could decline by a solid 38.4 percent to take in $4.5 million over the three-day weekend and gross $5.7 million over the four-day weekend
(which would represent a 21.9 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day debut). |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Deadpool & Wolverine (Disney) |
$18.7 M | $602.9 M | +2% | 6 |
| 2 | Alien: Romulus (Disney / 20th Century) |
$11.4 M | $90.6 M | -30% | 3 |
| 3 | It Ends With Us (Sony / Columbia) |
$10.4 M | $136.7 M | -11% | 4 |
| 4 | Reagan (ShowBiz Direct) |
$8.0 M | $8.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Twisters (Universal) |
$7.8 M | $258.7 M | +28% | 7 |
| 6 | AfrAId (Sony / Columbia) |
$7.2 M | $7.2 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | The Forge (Sony / AFFIRM) |
$6.7 M | $16.4 M | +1% | 2 |
| 8 | Blink Twice (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$5.7 M | $16.3 M | -22% | 2 |
| 9 | Despicable Me 4 (Universal) |
$5.5 M | $355.5 M | +29% | 9 |
| 10 | Inside Out 2 (Disney) |
$4.1 M | $651.3 M | +42% | 12 |
| 11 | Coraline (re-issue) (Fathom Events / LAIKA) |
$3.8 M | $30.0 M | -25% | 3 |
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