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Weekend Box Office Predictions
August 16 - August 18, 2024
Published on August 15, 2024 at 6:15PM Pacific |
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| After another strong frame last weekend, the August box office will look to remain strong this weekend thanks in part to the release of Disney and 20th Century's Alien: Romulus. The R-rated sci-fi horror film directed by Fede Álvarez represents the seventh
installment of the Alien franchise (the ninth if counting the two Alien vs. Predator films). Alien: Romulus is a standalone film set in between Alien and Aliens, and stars Cailee Spaeny, David Jonsson, Archie Renaux and Isabela Merced. Alien: Romulus is
playing in 3,885 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Critical reviews for Alien: Romulus have been good, and on the average they are the strongest of any film in the Alien series since 1986's Aliens. With a
strong level of pre-release buzz, the good critical reception and the addition of fans of Álvarez, Alien: Romulus should have no problem zooming past the $36.16 million start of Alien: Covenant back in May of 2017. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Alien: Romulus will start
out with $48.0 million this weekend. That would represent the second largest unadjusted opening weekend ever for the Alien franchise, and would be within shouting distance of the $51.05 million start of Prometheus back in June of 2012. |
| After leading the box office each of the past three frames, Disney's Deadpool & Wolverine is set to claim second place this weekend. Deadpool & Wolverine continued to hold up well last weekend, as the blockbuster sequel declined 44.5 percent to take
in $53.77 million. And on Tuesday Deadpool & Wolverine passed the $500 million domestic mark. While Deadpool & Wolverine should be in store for a respectable hold this weekend, the film may not hold up quite as well this weekend as it did last weekend. In addition to the new direct
competition from Alien: Romulus, Deadpool & Wolverine will also be losing the remainder of its IMAX screens and showtimes to Alien: Romulus this weekend. Look for Deadpool & Wolverine to decline 47.0 percent this weekend to gross $28.5 million, before likely having a
significantly better percentage hold next weekend. |
| Sony's It Ends With Us is coming off of a break-out opening weekend performance which saw the romance film debut in a close second place with $50.02 million. While critical reviews for It Ends With Us have been mixed, the film looks to be going over far better with
audiences after receiving a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore. Initial midweek grosses for It Ends With Us this week have also been very promising. At the same time, as an adaptation of a popular novel with a large built-in fanbase, there will be some initial front-loading for
It Ends With Us. On top of that, the film looks to be losing a fairly significant amount of its average showtimes per locations this weekend, which will make it difficult for It Ends With Us to have a really strong hold this weekend. A bit of that loss in showtimes will be helped made up
for by the film opening in an additional 128 locations this weekend (for a total location count of 3,739 locations this weekend). It Ends With Us could decline a respectable 52.0 percent this weekend to gross $24.0 million, before potentially stabilizing further next weekend. |
| Seemingly coming a bit out of nowhere this weekend is Fathom Events' 15th Anniversary re-issue of LAIKA's Coraline. At this time last year, Fathom Events re-issued Coraline in semi-wide release for just a total of four days (on two Mondays and two Tuesdays), with the
stop-motion animated film still taking in an impressive $7.15 million from the limited overall run. This time around Coraline is getting a much wider release, with a proper opening weekend and is scheduled to play in theatres for two weeks. A film being re-issued so soon after the previous re-issue
would typically experience a decrease in demand, but it appears that isn't going to be the case with Coraline this weekend, thanks in part to last year's re-issue being such a limited release (especially in length). Given the larger scale of this year's re-issue, it feels reasonable that the four-day
start for Coraline (which opens on Thursday) could potentially double the total gross of last year's four-day re-issue. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and four-day starts of $10.5 million and $14.0 million for Coraline
(assuming that Thursday's gross is reported separate from the weekend gross and not as a preview gross). That would bring the lifetime unadjusted domestic total gross for Coraline fairly close to the $100 million domestic mark. |
| Meanwhile, Universal's Twisters will likely continue to hold up well again this weekend. Last weekend Twisters declined 34.2 percent to place in third with $15.00 million. Twisters could hold up even better this weekend, thanks in part to holding onto a very
high percentage of its locations and average showtimes per location this weekend. A decline of just 31.3 percent would transfer into a $10.3 million take for Twisters this weekend. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Alien: Romulus (Disney / 20th Century) |
$48.0 M | $48.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Deadpool & Wolverine (Disney) |
$28.5 M | $545.2 M | -47% | 4 |
| 3 | It Ends With Us (Sony / Columbia) |
$24.0 M | $97.8 M | -52% | 2 |
| 4 | Coraline (Fathom Events / LAIKA) |
$10.5 M | $14.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Twisters (Universal) |
$10.3 M | $238.8 M | -31% | 5 |
| 6 | Despicable Me 4 (Universal) |
$5.3 M | $339.6 M | -34% | 7 |
| 7 | Trap (Warner Bros.) |
$3.3 M | $35.1 M | -50% | 3 |
| 8 | Inside Out 2 (Disney) |
$3.0 M | $641.9 M | -38% | 10 |
| 9 | Borderlands (Lionsgate) |
$2.7 M | $13.9 M | -69% | 2 |
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