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Weekend Box Office Predictions
July 12 - July 14, 2024
Published on July 11, 2024 at 8:15PM Pacific |
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| After a successful launch over Independence Day weekend last weekend, Universal and Illumination's Despicable Me 4 will look to remain at the top of the box office this weekend. Despicable Me 4 started out with respective three-day opening weekend and five-day
grosses of$75.01 million and $122.61 million. Since then, the blockbuster computer animated sequel has displayed very strong initial holding power throughout the midweek this week. That is a good sign for the film as it heads into its second weekend of release, as is the film's strong A rating on
CinemaScore. Despicable Me 4 will also benefit this weekend from holding onto its IMAX screens. Typically Despicable Me sequels and Minions films have had to deal with larger new films entering the marketplace in their respective second weekends of release, but that isn't the
case this weekend for Despicable Me 4, which should also help this weekend's percentage hold for the film. Despicable Me 4 could decline a very respectable 46.7 percent this weekend for a second weekend take of $40.0 million. |
| In other Despicable Me news, today Universal announced that it will release Illumination's upcoming Minions 3 on Wednesday, June 30, 2027. |
| With the opening weekend frame of Despicable Me 4 now in the past, Disney and Pixar's Inside Out 2 is likely to re-stabilize in a big way this weekend. Last weekend Inside Out 2 declined a sizable 47.3 percent to place in second with $30.31 million.
Inside Out 2 should hold up far better this weekend, especially since the film is holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and will actually see its location count increase by 55 locations from last weekend (for a total of 3,815 locations this weekend).
Inside Out 2 could decrease just 29.7 percent from last weekend for a second place take of $21.3 million. That would represent the ninth largest unadjusted fifth weekend gross of all-time. |
| Meanwhile, it appears that NEON's Longlegs could be on its way to becoming a surprise hit at the box office this weekend. The much buzzed about R-rated horror thriller directed by Osgood Perkins features Maika Monroe, Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt and Nicolas Cage.
Longlegs is opening in an estimated 2,500 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows that begin at 7PM. In addition to the film's effective marketing campaign, very strong critical reviews should also benefit Longlegs this weekend. One aspect that could prevent Longlegs from
breaking out even further this weekend, is that much like last weekend's MaXXXine, Longlegs could prove to be extremely front-loaded towards opening day (regardless of reception). But unlike MaXXXine, which debuted with an estimated $6.71 million last weekend, Longlegs should
have much more appeal with more mainstream audiences. Back in March, fellow horror film Immaculate set a new opening weekend record for NEON with a $5.34 million start. In all likelihood, Longlegs will surpass that total on opening day alone (including Thursday previews). BoxOfficeReport is
predicting that Longlegs will debut with $17.3 million this weekend, which would represent the second largest opening weekend for a horror film thus far in 2024 (behind only A Quiet Place: Day One). |
| Speaking of Paramount's A Quiet Place: Day One; last weekend the horror prequel declined a sharp 60.5 percent to place in third with $20.61 million. A Quiet Place: Day One should experience significant stabilization this weekend, especially with the film now having
dealt with losing its IMAX screens. At the sametime, that stabilization could be limited somewhat by the potential break-out performance of fellow horror film Longlegs this weekend. Back in June of 2021, A Quiet Place Part II declined a very solid 37.7 percent in its third weekend to gross
$12.01 million. A Quiet Place: Day One likely won't hold up quite that well this weekend, but could still experience a third weekend percentage hold in the same neighborhood. Look for A Quiet Place: Day One to decline a respectable 43.2 percent to place in fourth this weekend with $11.7 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Sony and Apple's Fly Me to the Moon. The Greg Berlanti directed romantic comedy set in the world of 1960s NASA stars Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum. Fly Me to the Moon is opening in 3,356 locations this weekend and has
Thursday preview shows that begin at 3PM (the film has also had previous early access screenings). On the average, critical reviews for Fly Me to the Moon have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. Tatum in particular is typically a very consistent draw at the box office, however, interest in
Fly Me to the Moon appears to be fairly modest nonetheless. As we have recently seen with both The Bikeriders and Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1, films set in the past can be tough sells at the box office in the current theatrical marketplace. Fly Me to the Moon could round out
this weekend's top five with a modest launch of $10.5 million. |
| This weekend will also see Disney re-issue 1994's The Lion King for the 30th Anniversary of the classic animated film. The Lion King is playing in a semi-wide 1,330 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. This weekend's re-issue of
The Lion King will also look to get a bit of a boost from being a part of some drive-in double features with Inside Out 2. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that the re-issue of The Lion King will take seventh place this weekend with $3.0 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Despicable Me 4 (Universal) |
$40.0 M | $206.7 M | -47% | 2 |
| 2 | Inside Out 2 (Disney) |
$21.3 M | $573.5 M | -30% | 5 |
| 3 | Longlegs (NEON) |
$17.3 M | $17.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | A Quiet Place: Day One (Paramount) |
$11.7 M | $116.1 M | -43% | 3 |
| 5 | Fly Me to the Moon (Sony / Apple) |
$10.5 M | $10.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Sony / Columbia) |
$4.6 M | $185.1 M | -31% | 6 |
| 7 | The Lion King (re-issue) (Disney) |
$3.0 M | $3.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$2.7 M | $27.3 M | -50% | 3 |
| 9 | MaXXXine (A24) |
$2.5 M | $12.1 M | -63% | 2 |
| 10 | Sound Of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot (Angel Studios) |
$1.6 M | $10.1 M | -48% | 2 |
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