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Weekend Box Office Predictions
July 5 - July 7, 2024
Predictions chart published on July 3, 2024 at 6:00PM Pacific |
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| Weekend Predictions Written Update: |
| The very dependable Despicable Me franchise returns to theatres this weekend with the release of Universal and Illumination's Despicable Me 4. The fourth film in the main Despicable Me series and sixth film in the overall
Despicable Me franchise opens in 4,030 locations on Wednesday and will see that location count increase to 4,428 locations on Friday. Despicable Me 4 will also play on IMAX screens this weekend. There were no pre-midnight preview shows for
Despicable Me 4 on Tuesday. Critical reviews for Despicable Me 4 have been mixed, but that shouldn't matter much, as the Despicable Me franchise has already proven to be critic proof in the past. Past Independence Day five-day holiday weekend
starts for the Despicable Me franchise have included $143.07 million for 2013's Despicable Me 2, $140.62 million for 2022's Minions: The Rise of Gru and $99.02 million for 2017's Despicable Me 3. Thanks in part to the goodwill from
Minions: The Rise of Gru with audiences, it appears that Despicable Me 4 could be headed for a five-day debut in between those of Despicable Me 2 and Despicable Me 3. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and five-day
holiday starts $74.0 million and $124.0 million for Despicable Me 4 this weekend. That three-day weekend performance would represent the seventh largest unadjusted three-day Independence Day weekend gross of all-time. Despicable Me 4 was directed by
Chris Renaud and features the vocal talent of Steve Carell, Kristen Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Sofía Vergara and Will Ferrell. |
| After leading the box office for each the past three frames, Disney and Pixar's Inside Out 2 will look to take second place with another impressive performance this weekend. Last weekend Inside Out 2 declined a respectable 43.2 percent
to gross $57.52 million. Even with the new direct competition for family audiences from Despicable Me 4 this weekend, Inside Out 2 could still be headed for a similar percentage hold this weekend as last weekend. In a similar situation back in July of 2015, the
original Inside Out declined 40.7 percent in its fourth weekend (to gross $17.67 million), in the face of new direct competition from the first Minions film. Given that example and that Inside Out 2 has turned into a true mega-event film, there should be
enough room for Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 to co-exist with one another this weekend. Look for Inside Out 2 to decrease 40.9 percent this weekend to take in $34.0 million. That would represent the eighth largest unadjusted fourth
weekend gross of all-time. |
| Paramount's A Quiet Place: Day One is coming off of a strong $52.20 million debut, which represented the largest opening weekend ever for the A Quiet Place series. A Quiet Place: Day One has gone over well with critics and audiences
alike (the film received a very solid B+ rating on CinemaScore), which should help out at least somewhat this weekend. At the same time, A Quiet Place: Day One will take a hit this weekend from losing its IMAX screens and showtimes to Despicable Me 4. Back in
June of 2021, A Quiet Place Part II declined 59.5 percent in its second weekend to gross $19.27 million. However, that was in the face of new direct competition from The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, so A Quiet Place Day One may be able to have a slightly
better second weekend percentage hold than A Quiet Place Part II did. A sharp, but understandable 55.9 percent second weekend decline would transfer into a $23.0 million third place take for A Quiet Place: Day One this weekend. |
| After declining 45.2 percent last weekend to place in fourth with $10.34 million, Sony's Bad Boys: Ride or Die could re-stabilize this weekend thanks in part to serving as alternative choice for moviegoers over Independence Day weekend, especially with
no new action films entering the marketplace this weekend. Bad Boys: Ride or Die could decrease just 32.3 percent this weekend to gross $7.0 million. |
| Also arriving in theatres this weekend is A24's MaXXXine. The R-rated horror film is the third film in the X series of horror films directed by Ti West and starring Mia Goth; following X and Pearl, both of which were released
back in 2022. MaXXXine has early access shows on Wednesday but doesn't look to be having significant preview shows on Thursday, prior to the film's release on Friday. It appears that there is more mainstream opening weekend interest in MaXXXine than there was for
either X and Pearl, likely due in part to X and especially Pearl both having gained in popularity after their respective theatrical releases. At the same time, it's also still possible that MaXXXine won't have as much appeal with more mainstream
horror audiences as its online buzz would suggest, especially given the past performances of both X and Pearl (which had modest respective opening weekends of $4.28 million and $3.13 million). Critical reviews for MaXXXine have been good on the average, but
also haven't been as strong as critical reviews were for both X and Pearl, which may limit break-out potential for MaXXXine slightly. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that MaXXXine will debut with $6.8 million this weekend. |
| Last weekend saw Warner Bros. and New Line's Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 start out with $11.05 million. While Horizon Chapter 1 hasn't gone over well with critics and only looks to be going over marginally better with audiences after
receiving a modest B- rating on CinemaScore, the Kevin Costner directed western will benefit this weekend from looking to hold onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and from skewing heavily towards older moviegoers, who typically don't rush
out on opening weekend. Look for Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 to decline a respectable 43.0 percent this weekend to gross $6.3 million. |
| This weekend also sees Angel Studios' release of Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot. The Joshua Weigel directed drama aimed at faith-based audiences stars Elizabeth Mitchell, Demetrius Grosse and Nika King. While Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot technically
opens on Thursday (in 2,200 locations), it appears that Wednesday previews for the film started very early in the day at many locations. Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot will likely open higher than the recent respective $2.80 million and $3.76 million three-day and four-day Memorial Day weekend
starts of Angel Studios' Sight, but probably won't open as high as the $7.17 million three-day start of Angel Studios' Cabrini back in March. Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot could start out with respective three-day weekend and four-day grosses of $3.7 million
and $5.7 million (including Wednesday previews). |
| Weekend Predictions Chart Update: |
| This weekend's box office predictions chart can be found below. This weekend's box office predictions article will appear later this evening. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Despicable Me 4 (Universal) |
$74.0 M | $124.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Inside Out 2 (Disney) |
$34.0 M | $539.0 M | -41% | 4 |
| 3 | A Quiet Place: Day One (Paramount) |
$23.0 M | $96.0 M | -56% | 2 |
| 4 | Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Sony / Columbia) |
$7.0 M | $177.5 M | -32% | 5 |
| 5 | MaXXXine (A24) |
$6.8 M | $6.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$6.3 M | $22.5 M | -43% | 2 |
| 7 | Sound Of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot (Angel Studios) |
$3.7 M | $5.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Kalki 2898 AD (Prathyangira Cinemas / AA Creations) |
$1.7 M | $15.6 M | -70% | 2 |
| 9 | The Bikeriders (Focus) |
$1.3 M | $19.3 M | -61% | 3 |
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