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Weekend Box Office Predictions
June 28 - June 30, 2024
Published on June 27, 2024 at 8:30PM Pacific |
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| On the heels of three consecutive healthy frames at the box office, it appears that the overall box office will continue to roll this weekend, thanks in large part to the one-two punch of Paramount's A Quiet Place: Day One and Disney and Pixar's Inside Out 2. It
could prove to be a very close race for first place between the two films this weekend. |
| Paramount's A Quiet Place: Day One represents the third installment of the popular A Quiet Place series and represents a spin-off prequel to the two earlier films. The Michael Sarnoski directed PG-13 rated horror film features Lupita Nyong'o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff and
Djimon Hounsou. A Quiet Place: Day One will be playing in 3,707 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning as early as 3PM. As was the case with each of the previous two A Quiet Place films, A Quiet Place: Day One has gone over well with
critics (though not quite as well as each of the previous two films, on the average). Back in May of 2021, A Quiet Place Part II had respective three-day and four-day holiday weekend debuts of $47.55 million and $57.09 million. The film went on to gross $160.07 million domestically
(and that was with theatres still being in the earlier stages of recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic). While A Quiet Place: Day One is a spin-off of the two earlier films in the series, there is still plenty of interest in the film among moviegoers. The presence of Nyong'o in A Quiet Place: Day One is
likely adding further interest to the film, due in part to Nyong'o's much seen and well-received performance in fellow horror film Us back in 2019. The film's PG-13 rating will also help A Quiet Place: Day One become the first horror film break-out at the box office so far in 2024. BoxOfficeReport is
predicting that A Quiet Place: Day One will debut with $58.5 million this weekend. That could give the film the slight edge over Inside Out 2 for first place this weekend and would be in the same neighborhood as the respective $58.40 million and $56.53 million opening weekends of
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Bad Boys: Ride or Die earlier this summer. |
| Disney and Pixar's Inside Out 2 is coming off of a tremendous second weekend performance, which saw the blockbuster computer animated sequel decline just 34.4 percent to gross $101.21 million. While Inside Out 2 is likely to have a respectable percentage hold this weekend, it will be
difficult for the film to hold up as well this weekend as it did last weekend, thanks in part to Inside Out 2 losing its IMAX screens to A Quiet Place: Day One. And although the two films have different target audiences, A Quiet Place: Day One being rated PG-13 instead of R could still lead to the release
of A Quiet Place: Day One having a negative impact on Inside Out 2 this weekend. Furthermore, in general films that have exceptional second weekend holds do tend to lose some relative momentum in their third weekends of release. At the same time, Inside Out 2 will continue to benefit from its strong
critical reviews and strong word of mouth, and could also get a bit of a boost from moviegoers who want to catch the film (or catch it again) before Universal and Illumination's highly anticipated Despicable Me 4 enters the marketplace next Wednesday (July 3). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Inside Out 2 will decline 43.7 percent from last weekend to gross $56.5 million this weekend, which would represent the eighth largest unadjusted third weekend gross of all-time. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Warner Bros. and New Line's Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1. The western directed by and starring Kevin Costner is being released in two parts, with the second part scheduled for release on August 16. Horizon Chapter 1 is playing in 3,334 locations this
weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Unfortunately, critical reviews for Horizon Chapter 1 have been mixed (more so negative than positive). That will limit break-out potential for Horizon Chapter 1 this weekend, as will the film's 181-minute run-time (leading to less showtimes for the film).
Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 could also prove to be a bit of a wild card at the box office this weekend, as it appears that interest in the film is fairly modest in larger cities, while at the same time significantly higher in more rural areas. Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 could debut in third place this weekend
with $12.5 million. |
| Last weekend Sony's Bad Boys: Ride or Die lost a bit of momentum by declining a still respectable 44.1 percent to take second with $18.87 million. Bad Boys: Ride or Die could experience a similar percentage decline this weekend, especially with the significant new competition
from A Quiet Place: Day One. A 45.9 percent decline would transfer into a $10.2 million fourth place take for Bad Boys: Ride or Die this weekend. |
| Prathyangira Cinemas and AA Creations's release of Kalki 2898 AD is also set to have a major impact at the box office this weekend. According to the film's distributors, the Nag Ashwin directed Telugu-language sci-fi film grossed nearly $3.9 million from preview shows on Wednesday. While Kalki 2898 AD is likely
to be extremely front-loaded towards Wednesday and Thursday, it should still have a presence at the box office over the weekend given the scope of its grosses thus far. Look for Kalki 2898 AD to take in $4.5 million over the weekend and $10.0 million over the film's first four days of release (including Wednesday previews). |
| Focus' The Bikeriders debuted in third place last weekend with $9.70 million. While the film has gone over fairly well with critics and audiences alike, the film's initial daily percentage holds haven't been that encouraging so far. Furthermore, The Bikeriders is likely to take a significant hit from the added
presence of both A Quiet Place: Day One and Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 in the marketplace this weekend. Look for The Bikeriders to decline a sharp 56.7 percent for a second weekend take of $4.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | A Quiet Place: Day One (Paramount) |
$58.5 M | $58.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Inside Out 2 (Disney) |
$56.5 M | $467.3 M | -44% | 3 |
| 3 | Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$12.5 M | $12.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Sony / Columbia) |
$10.2 M | $165.0 M | -45% | 4 |
| 5 | Kalki 2898 AD (Prathyangira Cinemas / AA Creations) |
$4.5 M | $10.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | The Bikeriders (Focus) |
$4.2 M | $17.1 M | -57% | 2 |
| 7 | Kinds of Kindness (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.3 M | $2.8 M | +510% | 2 |
| 8 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.2 M | $168.5 M | -42% | 8 |
| 9 | The Garfield Movie (Sony / Columbia) |
$1.9 M | $89.5 M | -50% | 6 |
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