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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 31 - June 2, 2024
Published on May 30, 2024 at 6:00PM Pacific |
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| On the heels of a lackluster Memorial Day weekend frame last weekend, the overall domestic box office is headed for a quiet summer frame this weekend. After finishing very close to one another last weekend; Warner Bros.'s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Sony's The Garfield Movie should
remain close to one another this weekend, with The Garfield Movie likely having the slight edge for first place this time around. Meanwhile, Paramount's IF appears to be headed for a very nice hold in its third frame and could find itself in the same neighborhood as both The Garfield Movie and
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga on this weekend's box office chart. |
| Last weekend saw Sony's The Garfield Movie open in second place with respective three-day and four-day holiday weekend grosses of $24.01 million and $31.26 million. While critical reviews for The Garfield Movie have been largely negative, the film looks to be going over better with audiences
after receiving a B+ rating on CinemaScore (which is good, but not great for a family film). In this weekend's box office race with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Garfield Movie will likely have less built-in front-loading, but at the same time, The Garfield Movie will still likely have some initial front-loading of
its own as a result of Garfield being a well-known property. Way back in June of 2004, Garfield: The Movie declined 47.8 percent in its second weekend (to gross $11.34 million), and The Garfield Movie could be headed for a similar second weekend percentage hold this weekend. Look for The Garfield Movie to
decrease 47.5 percent this weekend for a second weekend take of $12.6 million. |
| Warner Bros.'s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is coming off of a disappointing launch last weekend in which the expensive prequel had respective three-day and four-day weekend grosses of $26.33 million and $32.34 million. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga has gone over especially well with critics, but the film's B+ rating
on CinemaScore, while still good, isn't nearly as impressive. Last weekend Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga displayed significant initial front-loading, which is a concerning sign for the film heading into this weekend. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga will receive a boost this weekend from continuing to play on IMAX screens. Back in May
of 2015, Mad Max: Fury Road declined 45.8 percent in its second weekend (to gross $24.64 million), but that film was heading into the Memorial Day weekend frame and not out of it. Look for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga to decline a sizable 53.3 percent to place in a very close second this weekend with $12.3 million. |
| Paramount's IF didn't have the greatest second weekend hold for a family film over last weekend's three-day frame (a 52.1 percent decline to gross $16.15 million), but the film rebounded very nicely on Memorial Day Monday (for a four-day gross of $22.31 million). IF has continued to maintain momentum on
Tuesday and Wednesday (on Wednesday the film was down a slim 23.7 percent from last Wednesday), though some of the strength of its midweek grosses are due to midweek grosses is general now strengthening as we head further into the summer moviegoing season. IF could decline just 30.0 percent to take in $11.3 million this weekend, which would
give the film an outside chance of moving back into first place if The Garfield Movie and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga both prove to be more front-loaded than expected this weekend. |
| Further down on this weekend's box office chart, Disney and 20th Century's Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Universal's The Fall Guy and Lionsgate's The Strangers: Chapter 1 should all be in store for good holds this weekend. All three films have been holding up well during the midweek this week and all
three films will benefit this weekend from not much being expected from this weekend's handful of new semi-wide and wide releases. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will decline a very solid 32.8 percent to gross $9.0 million, that The Fall Guy will decrease a slim 23.0 percent to take in $4.6 million and
that The Strangers: Chapter 1 will slow a very solid 31.9 percent to gross $3.8 million. |
| While there aren't any high-profile new wide releases this weekend, there are a handful of new films being given semi-wide / wide releases this weekend. The most promising two films of the bunch look to be Sony and Crunchyroll's anime film HAIKYU!! The Dumpster Battle, and IFC Films' horror film In a Violent Nature.
HAIKYU!! The Dumpster Battle is playing in 1,119 locations this weekend, while In a Violent Nature is playing in 1,426 locations. Both films have Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. In April, Sony and Crunchyroll's SPY x FAMILY CODE: White debuted with $4.82 million (from 2,009 locations). HAIKYU!! The Dumpster Battle will
likely have a better opening weekend per-location average than SPY x FAMILY CODE: White did, but the difference in location counts will likely be too much for HAIKYU!! The Dumpster Battle to overcome in the opening weekend comparison between the two films. In March, IFC Films had its largest opening weekend ever when Late Night with the Devil opened
with $2.83 million (from 1,034 locations). With similar positive pre-release buzz thanks in part to similarly strong critical reviews, in combination with the larger location count, In a Violent Nature may be able to outpace the opening weekend performance of Late Night with the Devil (which would obviously be a new opening weekend record for IFC Films).
BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective opening weekend grosses of $3.7 million for HAIKYU!! The Dumpster Battle and $3.0 million for In a Violent Nature. |
| This weekend's other new releases include Roadside Attractions' Summer Camp (opening in 1,787 locations), Bleecker Street's Ezra (opening in 1,320 locations) and Disney's Young Woman and the Sea (this weekend's location count for the film has yet to be officially announced). BoxOfficeReport isn't making official opening weekend
predictions for any of the three films in question. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Garfield Movie (Sony / Columbia) |
$12.6 M | $50.0 M | -48% | 2 |
| 2 | Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros.) |
$12.3 M | $51.3 M | -53% | 2 |
| 3 | IF (Paramount) |
$11.3 M | $80.9 M | -30% | 3 |
| 4 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Disney / 20th Century) |
$9.0 M | $140.2 M | -33% | 4 |
| 5 | The Fall Guy (Universal) |
$4.6 M | $80.7 M | -23% | 5 |
| 6 | The Strangers: Chapter 1 (Lionsgate) |
$3.8 M | $28.5 M | -32% | 3 |
| 7 | HAIKYU!! The Dumpster Battle (Sony / Crunchyroll) |
$3.7 M | $3.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | In a Violent Nature (IFC Films) |
$3.0 M | $3.0 M | NEW | 1 |
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