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4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 24 - May 27, 2024
Published on May 23, 2024 at 6:15PM Pacific |
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| This Memorial Day weekend won't have a mega-opener that this holiday frame often sees, but this weekend does have the release of two new high-profile films; Warner Bros.'s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Sony's The Garfield Movie, which should combine to generate solid business over the holiday frame. |
| Warner Bros.'s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is a prequel to 2015's Mad Max: Fury Road and also represents the first Mad Max film since Fury Road. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga sees the return of Mad Max series director George Miller and stars Anya Taylor-Joy, Chris Hemsworth and Tom Burke.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is playing in 3,804 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average, critical reviews for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga have been very strong, though they are also not quite on the same level as the critical reviews for the critically acclaimed
Mad Max: Fury Road. While there was certainty demand for a follow-up to Mad Max: Fury Road, it does feel like interest in Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga isn't quite as high as it was for Mad Max: Fury Road. At least some of that may be due to Mad Max: Fury Road star Charlize Theron not being part of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.
Mad Max: Fury Road had a three-day opening weekend of $45.44 million back in May of 2015 and with good holding power went on to finish its domestic run with $153.64 million. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is unlikely to match the three-day opening weekend performance of Mad Max: Fury Road, but the four-day holiday start for
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga could very possibly be in the same neighborhood as the three-day start for Mad Max: Fury Road. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Mad Max: Fury Road will have respective three-day and four-day debuts of $36.5 million and $44.0 million this weekend. |
| Sony's The Garfield Movie is a computer animated film directed by Mark Dindal, featuring the vocal talent of Chris Pratt, Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult. The Garfield Movie represents the first theatrical Garfield film since Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties way back in 2004.
The Garfield Movie is playing in a wide 4,035 locations this weekend, has traditional Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM and also had early access preview shows this past Sunday. The Garfield Movie has been playing in select international markets over the past three weeks and has grossed an estimated $49.0 million internationally
through this past Sunday. With that said, The Garfield Movie may prove to be a stronger performer internationally than domestically. The Garfield Movie has performed quite well in Mexico thus far (with a total of $15.3 million as of this past Sunday), which may be an indication of the film potentially playing strong with Hispanic American
audiences domestically. Critical reviews for The Garfield Movie have been largely negative. Break-out potential for The Garfield Movie could be kept in check this weekend by family audiences also having the option of watching IF. Last weekend IF had a three-day debut of $33.72 million, and The Garfield Movie could be in
store for a four-day opening weekend in the same area as last weekend's three-day start for IF. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Garfield Movie will debut in second place over the holiday frame with respective three-day and four-day grosses of $27.5 million and $35.0 million. |
| As mentioned, last weekend saw Paramount's IF debut in first place with $33.72 million. While that was below consensus expectations, it still represented a respectable start for an original family film in the current theatrical environment. IF hasn't gone over well with critics, but the film looks to be going over far
better with audiences after receiving a strong A rating on CinemaScore. While IF will take a hit from the arrival of The Garfield Movie this weekend, there should be enough room in the marketplace for both family films to co-exist this weekend. IF could decline 47.5 percent to take in $17.7 million over the three-day weekend and
could gross $23.0 million over the four-day holiday frame (which would represent a 31.8 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day start). |
| Disney and 20th Century's Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is coming off of a second weekend, second place performance of $25.45 million. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes declined a sharp, but understandable 56.4 percent last weekend. The film should continue to stabilize this weekend, though at the same time further
stabilization will also be held in check by the arrival of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga in the marketplace and from Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes losing its remaining IMAX screens and showtimes to Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Look for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to decrease 47.3 percent from last weekend to place in fourth over
the three-day frame with $13.4 million and for the film to take in $17.0 million over the four-day frame (which would represent a 33.2 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day gross). |
| Further down on this weekend's box office chart, Lionsgate's The Strangers: Chapter 1 could be headed for fifth place in its second weekend of release and Universal's The Fall Guy could finish closely behind in sixth place in its fourth weekend of release. Look for The Strangers: Chapter 1 to decline a
sizable 54.3 percent from last weekend's solid $11.83 million debut to gross $5.4 million over the three-day frame. For the four-day frame, The Strangers: Chapter 1 could take in $6.7 million, which would be a 43.3 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day debut. With new competition from Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Fall Guy could
decline a still respectable 41.3 percent to gross $4.9 million over the three-day frame. A four-day gross of $6.2 million for The Fall Guy would represent a 25.8 percent decrease from last weekend's three-day take. |
| This weekend also sees Angel Studios' release of Sight. The biopic on eye surgeon Ming Wang was directed by Andrew Hyatt and stars Terry Chen and Greg Kinnear. Sight is playing in 2,100 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Sight was originally going to be released by Briarcliff Entertainment
back in October of last year, but that release was canceled, with Angel Studios ultimately releasing the film instead. Sight may debut in seventh place this weekend with respective three-day and four-day opening weekend grosses of $3.3 million and $4.1 million. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros.) |
$44.0 M | $44.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Garfield Movie (Sony / Columbia) |
$35.0 M | $35.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | IF (Paramount) |
$23.0 M | $65.4 M | -32% | 2 |
| 4 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Disney / 20th Century) |
$17.0 M | $126.4 M | -33% | 3 |
| 5 | The Strangers: Chapter 1 (Lionsgate) |
$6.7 M | $22.3 M | -43% | 2 |
| 6 | The Fall Guy (Universal) |
$6.2 M | $72.4 M | -26% | 4 |
| 7 | Sight (Angel Studios) |
$4.1 M | $4.1 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Back To Black (Focus) |
$1.75 M | $5.6 M | -38% | 2 |
| 9 | Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$1.70 M | $46.7 M | -41% | 5 |
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