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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 17 - May 19, 2024
Published on May 16, 2024 at 5:30PM Pacific |
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| Paramount's IF will look to lead the way at the box office upon opening in theatres this weekend. The fantasy comedy aimed at family audiences was directed by John Krasinski and features Ryan Reynolds, Cailey Fleming and Krasinski. IF also includes an extensive voice cast of stars
voicing the computer animated imaginary friends in the film. IF is opening in a wide 4,041 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. While IF isn't playing on IMAX screens, the film will be playing on other premium format screens and will also be receiving a fairly high average
amount of showtimes per location. As the first new high-profile family film to open in wide release since Kung Fu Panda 4 back in early March, IF will likely perform well with family audiences this weekend and beyond. However, at the same time, it appears that interest in the film among non-family audiences
is much more scaled back, despite the presence of Reynolds. And while the film's mixed critical reviews probably won't make a big impact when it comes to the film's performance with family audiences, they could prove to be another hurdle for IF when it comes to non-family audiences. Back in August of 2021 the Ryan Reynolds
led Free Guy debuted with $28.37 million and went on to have a back-loaded run; eventually finishing with $121.63 million domestically. IF should be able to outpace the opening weekend performance of Free Guy, and as an original film aimed at family audiences, could also prove to have a back-loaded run
beyond opening weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that IF will open in first place this weekend with $34.0 million. |
| Last weekend saw Disney and 20th Century's Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes exceed consensus expectations with a strong first place start of $58.40 million. Initial daily percentage holds for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes had been very encouraging, but on Wednesday the film did have a
concerning hold by declining a sizable 42.1 percent from Tuesday (to gross $3.47 million for the day). The film's B rating on CinemaScore is less encouraging, especially since the previous three Planet of the Apes films all received A- ratings on CinemaScore. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will receive a boost
from continuing to play on IMAX screens this weekend, though the film will be losing some of its IMAX showtimes to the IMAX release of Amazon MGM Studios' The Blue Angels. Looking back at the two most recent Planet of the Apes films; 2014's Dawn of the Planet of the Apes declined 50.1 percent in its second
weekend to gross $36.25 million, while War for the Planet of the Apes decreased 62.9 percent in its second weekend to gross $20.88 million. It appears that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is likely headed for a second weekend percentage hold in between those of the two most recent Planet of the Apes films.
Look for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to decline 55.5 percent this weekend to place in second with $26.0 million. |
| It also appears as though Lionsgate's The Strangers: Chapter 1 will have a significant presence at the box office this weekend. The R-rated horror film directed by Renny Harlin represents the third film in The Strangers horror series and is also the first of a current planned trilogy of
The Strangers films (with the next two films in the trilogy having already been shot). The Strangers: Chapter 1 stars Madelaine Petsch and Froy Gutierrez. The Strangers: Chapter 1 is playing in 2,856 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. 2024 has been a relatively tough
year for horror films thus far, as we have yet to have had a horror film break out at the box office this year. While The Strangers: Chapter 1 may not truly break out either this weekend, the film will have a good chance of topping the $11.80 million debut of Universal's Night Swim back in early January to deliver the
largest opening weekend for a horror film in 2024 to date. The Strangers: Chapter 1 will be helped out this weekend by being part of an established horror series (with the original 2008 film being held in high regard by many), but that could also lead to significant front-loading for the film, especially since initial critical
reviews for The Strangers: Chapter 1 have been largely negative. BoxOfficeReport is predicting a solid third place start of $13.0 million for The Strangers: Chapter 1 this weekend. |
| Meanwhile, Universal's The Fall Guy will look to continue to stabilize in its third weekend of release. Last weekend The Fall Guy declined a sizable, but reasonable 50.6 percent to place in second with $13.70 million. The Fall Guy was helped out last weekend by the Mother's Day holiday on
Sunday, but at the same time the film also had to deal with losing its IMAX screens last weekend. The well-received The Fall Guy has continued to show promising signs of stabilizing during the midweek this week, and on Wednesday the film was down just 31.8 percent from the previous Wednesday. The Fall Guy will also be
helped out this weekend by holding onto the vast majority of its locations from the previous two weeks. The Fall Guy could decline a solid 35.0 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $8.9 million. |
| This weekend also sees the release of Focus' Back To Black. The Amy Winehouse music biopic was directed by Sam Taylor-Johnson and stars Marisa Abela as Winehouse. The film also features Jack O'Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville. Back To Black is playing in 2,010 locations this weekend and has
Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Black To Black looks to only be playing on a single screen at most theatres this weekend, which isn't the greatest sign for a new film on opening weekend. The film's largely negative critical reviews won't help matters for Back To Black either this weekend. Back To Black could find
itself in a similar opening weekend situation as 2022's Whitey Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (which opened with $4.70 million), though Back To Black is likely to be more front-loaded given that I Wanna Dance with Somebody was a Christmas weekend release. Look for Back To Black to debut in fifth place this
weekend with a modest $3.9 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | IF (Paramount) |
$34.0 M | $34.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Disney / 20th Century) |
$26.0 M | $101.5 M | -55% | 2 |
| 3 | The Strangers: Chapter 1 (Lionsgate) |
$13.0 M | $13.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Fall Guy (Universal) |
$8.9 M | $63.5 M | -35% | 3 |
| 5 | Back To Black (Focus) |
$3.9 M | $3.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$2.6 M | $43.3 M | -41% | 4 |
| 7 | Tarot (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$1.7 M | $15.2 M | -50% | 3 |
| 8 | Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$1.55 M | $194.2 M | -41% | 8 |
| 9 | Unsung Hero (Lionsgate) |
$1.45 M | $19.4 M | -43% | 4 |
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