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Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 10 - May 12, 2024
Published on May 9, 2024 at 5:00PM Pacific |
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| Business will look to pick up at the summer box office this weekend with the release of Disney and 20th Century's Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. The Wes Ball directed sequel represents the fourth installment of the Planet of the Apes franchise
since the relaunch of the franchise back in 2011 with Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is playing in 4,075 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM
(the film also had early access preview shows on Wednesday night). On the average, critical reviews for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes have been good, though they haven't been quite as strong as they were for both 2014's Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and
2017's War for the Planet of the Apes. War for the Planet of the Apes debuted with $56.26 million in July of 2017 and ended its domestic run with $146.88 million. As a follow-up and as the fourth Planet of the Apes film since the relaunch of the franchise,
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will likely gross less than War for the Planet of the Apes did. At the same time, the potential drop-off from War for the Planet of the Apes could be softened by the seven-year gap since War for the Planet of the Apes, as
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will benefit from seven years of ticket price inflation and possibly also from the film feeling like a soft relaunch of its own in comparison to the three previous-Caesar focused films. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes could also receive
additional boosts this weekend from the early summer marketplace being less crowded than usual this year and from the Mother's Day holiday on Sunday. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will open with $51.0 million this weekend. |
| After opening below consensus expectations with $27.75 million last weekend, Universal's The Fall Guy will look to have a solid second weekend hold this weekend. Critical reviews for The Fall Guy have been good and the film also looks to be going over
well with audiences after receiving a healthy A- CinemaScore. The Fall Guy will take a hit this weekend from losing its IMAX screens to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, though at the same time The Fall Guy is also likely to get at least somewhat of a boost from the
Mother's Day holiday. Last weekend the well-received Challengers found itself in a similar situation as The Fall Guy in its second weekend, and declined a respectable 49.4 percent in the process. The Fall Guy could be headed towards a very similar second weekend
percentage hold of its own this weekend. A respectable second weekend decline of 49.5 percent would transfer into a second place gross of $14.0 million for The Fall Guy this weekend. |
| As mentioned, Amazon MGM Studios' Challengers declined 49.4 percent last weekend, which gave the film a third place take of $7.59 million. Challengers has continued to stabilize during the midweek this week and the film's Wednesday performance was down a
solid 35.8 percent from the previous Wednesday. However, part of the additional stabilization may be a result of the film skewing even more towards female moviegoers as time goes on, which will lead to Challengers being more weekday heavy and less weekend heavy. Challengers should
receive at least a bit of a boost on Mother's Day, but at the same time the film is playing in 868 fewer locations this weekend than it did last weekend (for a total of 2,609 locations this weekend). Look for Challengers to decline a solid 34.1 percent to place in third this weekend
with $5.0 million. |
| Sony's Tarot is coming off of a fourth place debut of $6.50 million last weekend, which was in line with the modest expectations for the lower priced PG-13 horror film. While Tarot hasn't gone over well with critics and also doesn't look to be going over very
well with audiences after receiving a C- rating on CinemaScore, the film should still benefit this weekend holding onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend and from no new horror films opening in wide release this weekend. Tarot could decrease a
respectable 49.3 percent to take in $3.3 million this weekend. |
| Opening in semi-wide release this weekend is Briarcliff Entertainment's Not Another Church Movie. The spoof film of Tyler Perry films was directed by Johnny Mack, and features Kevin Daniels, Vivica A. Fox, Mickey Rourke and Jamie Foxx. Not Another Church Movie is
playing in 1,108 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. As a lower-profile, semi-wide release, expectations are modest for Not Another Church Movie, but there could be at least a bit of an audience in the mood for a spoof of Tyler Perry films. Opening over
Mother's Day weekend could help the film's prospects somewhat too. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Not Another Church Movie will open with $2.7 million this weekend. |
| Not Another Church Movie could find itself in the same neighborhood as both Disney's re-issue of Star Wars: The Phantom Menace and Warner Bros. and Legendary's Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire on this weekend's box office chart. Coming off of last
weekend's $8.72 million start (which was inflated by May the 4th screenings on Saturday), Star Wars: The Phantom Menace could decline a very sharp 66.8 percent to take in $2.9 million this weekend. And with new direct competition from Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire could decrease a still solid 38.3 percent to gross $2.8 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Disney / 20th Century) |
$51.0 M | $51.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Fall Guy (Universal) |
$14.0 M | $49.9 M | -50% | 2 |
| 3 | Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$5.0 M | $38.4 M | -34% | 3 |
| 4 | Tarot (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$3.3 M | $11.8 M | -49% | 2 |
| 5 | Star Wars: The Phantom Menace (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.9 M | $13.5 M | -67% | 2 |
| 6 | Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$2.8 M | $192.1 M | -38% | 7 |
| 7 | Not Another Church Movie (Briarcliff) |
$2.7 M | $2.7 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Kung Fu Panda 4 (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$1.95 M | $191.1 M | -22% | 10 |
| 9 | Unsung Hero (Lionsgate) |
$1.90 M | $16.4 M | -36% | 3 |
| 10 | Civil War (A24) |
$1.85 M | $65.1 M | -48% | 5 |
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