Weekend Predictions |
Weekend Report |
Yearly Box Office |
Box Office By Brand |
All-Time Weekends |
Preview Grosses |
Wide Release Dates |
Box Office Links |
Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 3 - May 5, 2024
Published on May 2, 2024 at 5:15PM Pacific |
Become a Patron!
| The summer box office season kicks off this weekend with the release of Universal's The Fall Guy. The David Leitch directed action comedy starring Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt is a loose adaptation of the 1980s television series of the same name. The Fall Guy is playing in a
wide 4,002 locations this weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM (the film also had early access shows on Wednesday). On the average, critical reviews for The Fall Guy have been good. Internationally, The Fall Guy started out with $8.4 million this past
weekend from 38 mostly smaller international markets; with the film opening in a number of larger international markets this week. The Fall Guy represents Gosling's first film after last summer's Barbie, and obviously the hope is that The Fall Guy receives a box office boost from the massive
success of Barbie. At the same time, as far as summer openers go, The Fall Guy is a lower profile film than what is usually scheduled to kick off the summer moviegoing season. And as a non-sequel, it's quite possible that The Fall Guy will have some natural back-loading throughout May, especially
if the film goes over as well with audiences as it has with critics. A good opening weekend comparison for The Fall Guy may prove to be Bullet Train (Leitch's last film as a director), which opened with $30.03 million back in August of 2022. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that The Fall Guy will debut
with a similar $29.5 million this weekend. |
| Disney is re-releasing 1999's Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace this weekend for the film's 25th Anniversary. Star Wars: The Phantom Menace (which was originally distributed by 20th Century Fox) will be playing in 2,700 locations this weekend. While
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace won't have Thursday previews, the film is sure to benefit on Saturday from May the 4th Star Wars Day celebration viewings. This weekend's re-issue of Star Wars: The Phantom Menace could also benefit a bit from the relative lack of choices for family audiences in the
current marketplace. Back in February of 2012, a 3D re-issue of Star Wars: The Phantom Menace opened with $22.47 million. In the age of streaming, theatrical re-issues haven't been able to register those type of openings, but larger re-issues of note in recent years have included $10.53 million
for Avatar back in September of 2022, $6.71 million for Titanic in February of 2023 and $5.10 million for Star Wars: Return of the Jedi in April of 2023 (from just 475 locations). With a much larger location count and the aid of May the 4th on Saturday, this year's re-issue of
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace potentially doubling last year's opening of Star Wars: Return of the Jedi feels very reasonable. Look for the 25th Anniversary re-issue of Star Wars: The Phantom Menace to take second place this weekend with $11.5 million
(which would also be just ahead of the opening weekend performance for the 2022 re-issue of Avatar). |
| Last weekend saw Amazon MGM Studios' Challengers debut in first place with a solid $15.01 million. In addition to going over well with critics, Challengers looks to be going over fairly well with audiences after receiving a good B+ rating on CinemaScore. Initial daily
percentage holds thus far have also been promising for Challengers, though the film's midweek grosses have likely experienced some relative inflation as a result of Challengers skewing significantly towards female moviegoers. Challengers will also take a bit of a hit this weekend from losing
its IMAX screens and showtimes to The Fall Guy. Challengers could decline a very solid 44.0 percent this weekend to place in third with $8.4 million, before potentially experiencing an even better percentage hold next weekend. |
| Also opening in theatres this weekend is Sony's Tarot. The tarot card themed PG-13 rated horror film from Screen Gems was directed by Spenser Cohen and Anna Halberg. Tarot is playing in 3,104 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 4PM. We have yet to see a
horror film break out in 2024 (Night Swim remains the top horror opener of 2024 thus far with a debut of $11.80 million back in January) and it doesn't look like the lower-profile Tarot will break that box office curse this weekend. Tarot could get a slight boost this weekend thanks to the
film's PG-13 rating. On a positive note, Tarot carries a very low price-tag. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Tarot will debut in fourth place this weekend with a modest $7.0 million. |
| Even with three new wide releases entering the marketplace this weekend, Warner Bros. and Legendary's Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire and A24's Civil War are both likely to experience very solid holds this weekend. Last weekend Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire declined a
slim 24.6 percent to gross $7.22 million and Civil War decreased a solid 37.6 percent to gross an estimated $7.00 million. This weekend's percentage holds for the two films will likely be closer to one another, thanks in part to Civil War looking to hold onto a high percentage of its average showtimes per
location from last weekend. Look for Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire to slow just 32.1 percent from last weekend to gross $4.9 million and for Civil War to decline a similar 34.3 percent to gross $4.6 million. |
|
|
Predictions for this weekend's top 11 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | The Fall Guy (Universal) |
$29.5 M | $29.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Star Wars: The Phantom Menace (re-issue) (Disney / 20th Century) |
$11.5 M | $11.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Challengers (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$8.4 M | $30.1 M | -44% | 2 |
| 4 | Tarot (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$7.0 M | $7.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$4.9 M | $188.5 M | -32% | 6 |
| 6 | Civil War (A24) |
$4.6 M | $63.2 M | -34% | 4 |
| 7 | Unsung Hero (Lionsgate) |
$3.8 M | $13.9 M | -51% | 2 |
| 8 | Abigail (Universal) |
$2.7 M | $23.2 M | -48% | 3 |
| 9 | Kung Fu Panda 4 (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$2.5 M | $188.4 M | -30% | 9 |
| 10 | The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (Lionsgate) |
$2.05 M | $18.8 M | -47% | 3 |
| 11 | Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.00 M | $110.1 M | -38% | 7 |
|
|
Follow BoxOfficeReport on Twitter |
Find BoxOfficeReport on Facebook |