Weekend Box Office Predictions
March 15 - March 17, 2024
Published on March 14, 2024 at 9:15PM Pacific |
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| Saturday Note: |
| Please note that this weekend's predictions article originally included a typo of 1,000 locations for the estimated location count for Love Lies Bleeding. The official estimated location count was 1,200 locations, with the
actual location count for the film this weekend ultimately being 1,362 locations. |
| Weekend Predictions: |
| On the heels of last weekend's impressive performances, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Kung Fu Panda 4 and Warner Bros. and Legendary's Dune: Part Two are set to easily remain at the top of the box office this
weekend. Kung Fu Panda 4 is coming off of a $57.99 million first place debut, while Dune: Part Two declined just 44.0 percent to place in second with $46.22 million. With Kung Fu Panda 4 being in its second weekend of release
and Dune: Part Two being in its third weekend, Dune: Part Two is highly likely to hold up better this weekend than Kung Fu Panda 4. However, given the size of the gap between the two films this past weekend, Kung Fu Panda 4 is
still likely to remain ahead of Dune: Part Two in this weekend's rankings. While Kung Fu Panda 4 has been aided by some schools being out for spring break during the midweek, the film's midweek grosses are nonetheless pointing towards a very good
second weekend hold for the film. Kung Fu Panda 4 will likely have a stronger second weekend hold than 2016's Kung Fu Panda 3, which declined 48.5 percent in its second weekend to gross $21.24 million, against competition from that year's Super Bowl. Look
for Kung Fu Panda 4 to decline a very solid 41.4 percent this weekend for a first place second weekend take of $34.0 million. |
| Dune: Part Two will continue to benefit this weekend from its combination of strong critical reviews, strong word of mouth and strong performance on IMAX screens. The critically acclaimed event film also looks to be holding
onto a higher percentage of its non-IMAX average showtimes per location this weekend than it did last weekend. Dune: Part Two may also get an additional boost this weekend from moviegoers who want to catch the film (or catch it again) before
Sony's Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire enters the marketplace next weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Dune: Part Two will decline just 30.8 percent this weekend to place in a close second with $32.0 million. That will move
Dune: Part Two well past the $200 million domestic mark. |
| The weekend's one new wide release is Lionsgate's Arthur the King. The Simon Cellan Jones directed film stars Mark Wahlberg. While the film also features a dog, the film's PG-13 rating may keep some potential family audiences
away. Arthur the King is playing in 3,003 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. On the average, critical reviews for Arthur the King have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. Over the last few
weeks, fellow Lionsgate releases Imaginary and Ordinary Angels have had respective opening weekend performances of $9.91 million and $6.16 million. With not much buzz around Arthur the King, the film may open in the same range
as the opening weekends of Imaginary and Ordinary Angels. Look for Arthur the King to debut in third place this weekend with $8.9 million. |
| As mentioned, last weekend saw Lionsgate's Imaginary debut in third with $9.91 million. Angel Studios' Cabrini followed in fourth with a $7.17 million start. While Cabrini has gone over better than Imaginary with critics and
audiences alike, the two films could still have similar second weekend percentage holds due to there likely being more initial built-in front-loading for Cabrini than for Imaginary (in part from Cabrini being relatively pre-sales heavy last weekend). It
also appears that Imaginary will be holding onto a higher percentage of its average showtimes per location from last weekend than Cabrini will this weekend. Imaginary could decline 46.5 percent to take fourth this weekend with $5.3 million,
while Cabrini could decrease 47.0 percent to follow in fifth place with $3.8 million. |
| This weekend will also see A24's Love Lies Bleeding expand to semi-wide release and Focus's The American Society of Magical Negroes and Bleecker Street's One Life debut in semi-wide release. Love Lies Bleeding will be playing
in an estimated 1,200 locations this weekend, while The American Society of Magical Negroes will be playing in 1,147 locations and One Life will be playing in 983 locations. Love Lies Bleeding, which was directed by Rose Glass and stars Kristen Stewart and
Katy O'Brian, had a respectable platform start last weekend with an estimated $167K from 5 locations in New York and Los Angeles. Love Lies Bleeding may be the top choice of this weekend's three new semi-wide releases with $2.4 million. The American Society of Magical Negroes was
directed by Kobi Libii and stars Justice Smith and David Alan Grier. One Life was directed by James Hawes and stars Anthony Hopkins and Johnny Flynn. The American Society of Magical Negroes could debut with $1.8 million this weekend, while One Life could start out with $1.3 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Kung Fu Panda 4 (Universal / DreamWorks Anim.) |
$34.0 M | $111.5 M | -41% | 2 |
| 2 | Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros. / Legendary) |
$32.0 M | $208.2 M | -31% | 3 |
| 3 | Arthur the King (Lionsgate) |
$8.9 M | $8.9 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Imaginary (Lionsgate) |
$5.3 M | $18.7 M | -47% | 2 |
| 5 | Cabrini (Angel Studios) |
$3.8 M | $14.0 M | -47% | 2 |
| 6 | Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount) |
$2.5 M | $93.5 M | -39% | 5 |
| 7 | Love Lies Bleeding (A24) |
$2.4 M | $2.7 M | +1,333% | 2 |
| 8 | The American Society of Magical Negroes (Focus) |
$1.8 M | $1.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 9 | One Life (Bleecker Street) |
$1.3 M | $1.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 10 | Ordinary Angels (Lionsgate) |
$1.2 M | $18.3 M | -40% | 4 |
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