4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 29, 2023 - January 1, 2024
Published on December 28, 2023 at 6:00PM Pacific |
Become a Patron!
| Warner Bros.'s Wonka will look to return to the top of the domestic box office over the New Year's weekend holiday frame. Last weekend saw Wonka decline 53.7 percent and one spot to place in second
with an estimated $18.05 million over the three-day frame (the film grossed $28.05 million over the four-day Christmas holiday weekend). After finishing behind fellow Warner Bros. release Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom last
weekend, Wonka moved ahead of Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom at the daily box office on Tuesday (Boxing Day) and significantly increased the size of that lead on Wednesday. In addition to the film's strong midweek holding
power this week, New Year's weekend is typically a strong frame for both family films and musicals. Wonka will also be getting some IMAX showtimes back this weekend, as the film will be splitting IMAX screens with
Auqaman and the Lost Kingdom. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Wonka will increase a strong 41.3 percent from last weekend's three-day frame to take in $25.5 million this weekend. For the four-day holiday frame, Wonka could
increase 21.2 percent from last weekend's four-day holiday performance to gross a healthy $34.0 million. |
| This past weekend Universal and Illumination's Migration debuted with respective three-day and four-day starts of $12.45 million and $17.81 million. While Migration placed in fourth over the
four-day holiday frame, on Wednesday the film surpassed both Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and The Color Purple to place in second in the daily rankings. As mentioned, family films typically hold up very well over
New Year's weekend and it appears that trend will continue with Migration. Good critical reviews and strong word of mouth (Migration received an A rating on CinemaScore) should also give Migration an additional
boost this weekend. Migration could be headed for a three-day take of $17.2 million (which would represent a 38.1 percent increase) and a four-day holiday gross of $22.5 million (which would represent a 26.3 percent increase). That
would likely place Migration in a close race for second place this weekend with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. |
| Speaking of Warner Bros.'s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, the comic book based sequel is coming off of respective estimated first place debuts of $27.70 million and $38.30 million. Even with the holidays, as a
comic book based sequel, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is sure to experience initial front-loading (as seen by the film already falling behind Wonka in the daily box office rankings). Poor critical reviews and so-so word of
mouth (the film received a B rating on CinemaScore) won't help matters either this weekend for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. As mentioned, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom will also be losing some of its IMAX showtimes to
Wonka this weekend. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom could fall 38.6 percent over the three-day frame to gross $17.0 million and could slow 42.6 percent over the four-day holiday frame to register $22.0 million. |
| After starting out with a very impressive estimated $18.15 million on Christmas Monday, fellow Warner Bros. release The Color Purple experienced major slowing on both Tuesday and Wednesday. In declining 61.4 percent on
Tuesday and 45.0 percent on Wednesday, The Color Purple is displaying more initial front-loading than Dreamgirls did at this time of year way back in 2006. Given that The Color Purple has already fallen slightly behind
the daily pace of Dreamgirls, this weekend the film will likely finish a bit behind the respective $14.10 million and $18.38 million three-day and four-day holiday grosses of Dreamgirls over the same frame. While
The Color Purple has received good critical reviews and also looks to have strong word of mouth (the film received an A rating on CinemaScore), it appears that those factors have yet to kick in for the film at the box office.
The Color Purple could place in fourth this weekend with respective three-day and four-day holiday grosses of $12.9 million and $17.0 million. |
| It could be a fairly close race for fifth place this weekend between Amazon MGM Studios' The Boys in the Boat and Sony's Anyone But You. On Christmas Monday and on Boxing Day Tuesday
The Boys in the Boat had been ahead of Anyone But You in the daily rankings, but on Wednesday Anyone But You moved ahead of The Boys in the Boat for the day. The Boys in the Boat will likely be the
more weekend-heavy of the two films and could also receive an additional boost this weekend from strong word of mouth; The Boys in the Boat received an A rating on CinemaScore, while Anyone But You received a B+ CinemaScore rating. Look
for The Boys in the Boat to register respective three-day and four-day holiday grosses of $8.7 million and $11.5 million this weekend and for Anyone But You to follow closely behind with respective three-day and four-day
grosses of $8.0 million and $10.5 million. |
| Meanwhile, A24's The Iron Claw and NEON's Ferrari have been fairly close to one another in the daily rankings each of the past two days. The Iron Claw has had the edge between the two films each of
the last two days and will likely remain ahead of Ferrari over the weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day grosses of $5.2 million and $6.7 million for The Iron Claw and $4.6 million and
$6.0 million for Ferrari this weekend. |
|
|
3-Day predictions for this weekend's top 13 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Wonka (Warner Bros.) |
$25.5 M | $135.8 M | +41% | 3 |
| 2 | Migration (Universal) |
$17.2 M | $54.3 M | +38% | 2 |
| 3 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros.) |
$17.0 M | $74.8 M | -39% | 2 |
| 4 | The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) |
$12.9 M | $45.2 M | N/A | 1 |
| 5 | The Boys in the Boat (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$8.7 M | $22.2 M | N/A | 1 |
| 6 | Anyone But You (Sony / Columbia) |
$8.0 M | $23.8 M | +33% | 2 |
| 7 | The Iron Claw (A24) |
$5.2 M | $16.5 M | +7% | 2 |
| 8 | Ferrari (NEON) |
$4.6 M | $11.4 M | N/A | 1 |
| 9 | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate) |
$3.4 M | $160.2 M | +12% | 7 |
| 10 | The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) |
$2.6 M | $36.0 M | -7% | 4 |
| 11 | Godzilla Minus One (Toho International) |
$2.3 M | $45.6 M | -13% | 5 |
| 12 | Poor Things (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.2 M | $10.2 M | +4% | 4 |
| 13 | Trolls Band Together (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$2.0 M | $97.5 M | +12% | 7 |
|
|
4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 13 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Wonka (Warner Bros.) |
$34.0 M | $144.3 M | +21% | 3 |
| 2 | Migration (Universal) |
$22.5 M | $59.6 M | +26% | 2 |
| 3 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros.) |
$22.0 M | $79.8 M | -43% | 2 |
| 4 | The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) |
$17.0 M | $49.3 M | -6% | 1 |
| 5 | The Boys in the Boat (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$11.5 M | $25.0 M | +101% | 1 |
| 6 | Anyone But You (Sony / Columbia) |
$10.5 M | $26.3 M | +30% | 2 |
| 7 | The Iron Claw (A24) |
$6.7 M | $18.0 M | -1% | 3 |
| 8 | Ferrari (NEON) |
$6.0 M | $12.8 M | +109% | 1 |
| 9 | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate) |
$4.5 M | $161.3 M | +12% | 7 |
| 10 | The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) |
$3.4 M | $36.8 M | -3% | 4 |
| 11 | Godzilla Minus One (Toho International) |
$3.0 M | $46.3 M | -11% | 5 |
| 12 | Poor Things (Disney / Searchlight) |
$2.9 M | $10.9 M | -1% | 4 |
| 13 | Trolls Band Together (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$2.6 M | $98.1 M | +19% | 7 |
|
|
Follow BoxOfficeReport on Twitter |
Find BoxOfficeReport on Facebook |