4-Day Weekend Box Office Predictions
December 22 - December 25, 2023
Published on December 21, 2023 at 7:45PM Pacific |
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| While this holiday season doesn't have a mega-blockbuster on the schedule, the theatrical marketplace will have plenty of choices over Christmas weekend as nine (!!) significant new films (and one major expansion) are set to open
throughout the extended holiday frame. Warner Bros. will look to have three of the extended weekend's top four films with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Wonka and The Color Purple, alongside Universal's Migration. |
| Warner Bros.'s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is the long-awaited follow-up to 2018's Aquaman. As with its processor, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was directed by James Wan and stars
Jason Momoa. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is playing in 3,706 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Unfortunately, there doesn't look to be anywhere near the
level of interest in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom as there was in Aquaman (which opened with $67.87 million and went on to gross $335.06 million domestically). As with the other DCEU installments during 2023, clearly the
transition from the DCEU into the upcoming DCU has dampened anticipation for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. Poor critical reviews and superhero film fatigue in general also look to be limiting demand for the film. With that said,
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is still the favorite to lead the box office this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day starts of $25.0 million and $33.0 million for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom over Christmas weekend. |
| After last weekend's very solid first place start of $39.01 million, Warner Bros.'s Wonka is positioned nicely to have a healthy box office run throughout the remainder of the holiday season. In addition
to going over well with critics, Wonka also looks to be going over well with audiences after receiving an A- rating on CinemaScore. The film's midweek grosses this week have also been encouraging going forward. Wonka will take
a bit of a hit this weekend from losing its IMAX screens and showtimes to Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. Look for Wonka to decline 48.7 percent over the three-day weekend to take in $20.0 million and for the film to gross
$29.5 million over the four-day frame (which would represent a 24.4 percent decline from last weekend's three-day start). |
| Universal and Illumination's Migration will look to appeal to family audiences during the holidays. The Benjamin Renner directed original computer animated film is playing in 3,761 locations
this weekend (making it this weekend's widest new release) and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 2PM. On the average, critical reviews for the film have been good. Migration isn't expected to be one of
Illumination's stronger performers, but there should still be a sizable family audience for the film, especially with fellow Universal release Trolls Band Together and Disney's Wish both having already played
for several weeks. While duplicating the long-term holding power of last year's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (which was also a Universal release) will be a very difficult task, the four-day opening for
Migration could be in the same neighborhood as the $18.53 million five-day start of Puss in Boots: The Last Wish last Christmas. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day starts of
$14.0 million and $19.0 million for Migration this weekend. |
| Warner Bros.'s The Color Purple arrives in theatres on Christmas Day. The Blitz Bazawule directed musical is a theatrical adaptation of The Color Purple stage musical and features an
ensemble cast that includes Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Halle Bailey and Fantasia Barrino. The Color Purple will be launching in 3,152 locations on Monday. Critical
reviews for the film have been strong. There looks to be a high level of demand for The Color Purple, especially on Christmas Day. The Color Purple should take first place on Christmas Day itself
(likely with ease) and will be among the four-day weekend's top films from just one day of grosses. Back in 2012, Les Misérables had a Christmas Day start of $18.11 million and a similar opening day gross for
The Color Purple feels very reasonable. The Color Purple could start out with $18.5 million on Christmas Day. |
| Other new releases this weekend include Sony's Anyone But You (opening in 3,055 locations), A24's The Iron Claw (opening in an estimated 2,500 locations) and Moksha Movies and Pathyangira
Cinemas' release of Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire (opening in 750 locations). Also of note this weekend is Disney and Searchlight's Poor Things, which is expanding from 82 locations to 800 locations. All four
films should have a presence at the box office this weekend, with Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire (which had already totaled over $2 million in pre-sales earlier today) and Poor Things looking to have strong
per-location average performances. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day and four-day grosses of $6.0 million and $8.3 million for Anyone But You, $6.2 million and $8.0 million for
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, $4.2 million and $5.6 million for The Iron Claw and $3.5 million and $5.0 million for Poor Things. |
| Christmas Day Monday will also see the wide openings of Amazon MGM Studios' The Boys in the Boat in 2,557 locations and NEON's Ferrari in 2,330 locations. BoxOfficeReport isn't making official
opening day predictions for either film, but may have full weekend predictions for both films next week. |
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4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 12 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros.) |
$33.0 M | $33.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Wonka (Warner Bros.) |
$29.5 M | $87.0 M | -24% | 2 |
| 3 | Migration (Universal) |
$19.0 M | $19.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) |
$18.5 M | $18.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Anyone But You (Sony / Columbia) |
$8.3 M | $8.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 6 | Salaar: Part 1 - Ceasefire (Moksha Movies / Pathyangira Cinemas) |
$8.0 M | $8.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | The Iron Claw (A24) |
$5.6 M | $5.6 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | Poor Things (Disney / Searchlight) |
$5.0 M | $7.9 M | +290% | 3 |
| 9 | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate) |
$4.5 M | $153.9 M | -23% | 6 |
| 10 | The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) |
$4.3 M | $31.9 M | -22% | 3 |
| 11 | Godzilla Minus One (Toho International) |
$4.0 M | $41.7 M | -21% | 4 |
| 12 | Dunki (Yash Raj Films) |
$3.5 M | $3.5 M | NEW | 1 |
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