Weekend Box Office Predictions
November 24 - November 26, 2023
Predictions published on November 22, 2023 at 6:45AM Pacific |
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| Wednesday Afternoon Tuesday Box Office Update:: |
| Thanksgiving weekend is typically a strong time for animated films and this year Disney's Wish will look to lead the fairly crowded five-day Thanksgiving holiday frame. Wish started out with an
estimated $2.3 million in previews, with $1.8 million of that figure coming from Tuesday preview shows that began at 3PM and $0.5 million of the figure coming from select early access preview shows this past Saturday. Two years ago
over Thanksgiving weekend, Disney's Encanto grossed an estimated $1.5 million from Tuesday preview shows that began a bit later at 6PM. Encanto went on to open with $40.57 million over the five-day holiday frame, with
$27.21 million of that figure coming from the three-day weekend. Wish, which is being released as part of the 100 year anniversary celebration for Walt Disney Studios, was directed by Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn. The film
features the vocal talent of Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine and Alan Tudyk. Wish is playing in 3,900 locations beginning on Wednesday. Somewhat surprisingly, critical reviews for Wish have been rather mixed. Prior to the
release of the film's Tuesday preview gross, BoxOfficeReport predicted respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $29.0 million and $44.0 million for Wish over the Thanksgiving holiday frame. |
| Sony and Apple's Napoleon was off to a strong start on Tuesday with an estimated $3.0 million from Tuesday preview shows that began at 3PM. The preview gross for the Ridley Scott directed epic starring
Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby more than doubled the $1.3 million preview gross of fellow Ridley Scott directed film House of Gucci two years ago over Thanksgiving weekend. Napoleon is likely to experience more initial
front-loading than House of Gucci did, due in part to Tuesday previews for House of Gucci having started later at 7PM, but even with that in mind, the preview grosses comparison is a very promising one
for Napoleon. House of Gucci started out with $22.01 million over the five-day holiday frame, with $14.42 million of that figure coming from the three-day weekend. Napoleon is playing in 3,500 locations beginning
on Wednesday and will be playing on IMAX screens, though the film will be splitting IMAX screens with The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes over the holiday frame. Like a number of other films over the past few
weeks, critical reviews for Napoleon have been mixed, but more so positive than negative. Napoleon could receive a bit of a boost this weekend from serving as counter-programming to Wish, Trolls Band Together and
a lesser extent The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes. Prior to the release of the film's Tuesday preview gross, BoxOfficeReport predicted respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $24.0 million and $37.5 million
for Napoleon over the Thanksgiving holiday frame. |
| While it debuted towards the lower end of consensus expectations last weekend with $44.61 million, Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes has been displaying encouraging initial daily
holding power thus far. On Tuesday, the high-profile prequel increased 23.4 percent from Monday's performance with an estimated $6.50 million for the day, which was a very nice hold given the added presence of Napoleon and Wish in
the marketplace. Through Tuesday, the five-day total for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes stands at an estimated $56.38 million. The film's daily holds thus far suggest
that The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes may be going over a bit better with audiences than the film's still solid B+ CinemaScore rating suggests. It also appears that in opening significantly lower than the
previous The Hunger Games films, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes may in turn prove to be less front-loaded than its predecessors were, as more fans of the original films that didn't rush out on opening
weekend decide to give the prequel a chance. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $24.5 million and $35.5 million for The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes over the Thanksgiving
holiday frame. The predicted three-day weekend gross would represent a solid 45.1 percent decline from last weekend's debut. |
| Despite the new direct competition for family audiences from Wish on Tuesday, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together had a very strong hold for the day by taking in $4.73 million. That represented
a 44.5 percent increase from Monday's performance. This past weekend Trolls Band Together debuted towards the higher end of consensus expectations with $30.00 million ($31.17 million with the inclusion of early access shows). Through Tuesday,
Trolls Band Together has grossed $39.17 million after five days of release. Trolls Band Together looks to be going over quite well with audiences, as the film received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. At this point, it
appears that Wish and Trolls Band Together are going to be able to co-exist with one another at the box office going forward. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Trolls Band Together will decrease a very
solid 41.7 percent to take in $17.5 million over the three-day weekend and that the film will gross $24.5 million over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday frame. |
| After a respectable $10.31 million start last weekend, Sony's Thanksgiving will look to hold up well over the Thanksgiving weekend frame. On Tuesday, the R-rated horror film grossed $1.56 million for the day, which
was a 30.0 percent increase from Monday and brings the five-day start for Thanksgiving to $13.07 million. Between strong critical reviews and a likely Thanksgiving weekend boost, Thanksgiving should hold up well this
weekend (though holding power for the film beyond this weekend will be a question mark). BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Thanksgiving will decline just 35.0 percent over the three-day weekend to gross $6.7 million and that the
film will gross $10.0 million over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday frame. |
| Disney and Marvel's The Marvels was up a healthy 38.1 percent from Monday on Tuesday to gross $1.57 million for the day. However, after last weekend's historic second weekend slide The Marvels is likely to
have a lackluster hold over the holiday frame, due in part to the film playing in 960 fewer locations this weekend than last weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting respective three-day weekend and five-day grosses of $5.5 million and
$7.8 million for The Marvels over the Thanksgiving holiday frame. |
| Wednesday Morning Predictions Update: |
| Due to holiday time constraints, there isn't a traditional predictions article being included with this week's weekend predictions chart. A box office update including Tuesday preview grosses for Wednesday's new
films will appear here instead later in the day today. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | 3-Day Weekend Gross |
5-Day Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Wish (Disney) |
$29.0 M | $44.0 M | $44.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate) |
$24.5 M | $35.5 M | $90.8 M | -45% | 2 |
| 3 | Napoleon (Sony / Apple) |
$24.0 M | $37.5 M | $37.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Trolls Band Together (Universal / DreamWorks Animation) |
$17.5 M | $24.5 M | $62.5 M | -42% | 2 |
| 5 | Thanksgiving (Sony / TriStar) |
$6.7 M | $10.0 M | $23.0 M | -35% | 2 |
| 6 | The Marvels (Disney) |
$5.5 M | $7.8 M | $75.1 M | -46% | 3 |
| 7 | Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) |
$3.8 M | $5.8 M | $6.2 M | +1,078% | 2 |
| 8 | The Holdovers (Focus) |
$1.9 M | $2.6 M | $11.7 M | -30% | 5 |
| 9 | Five Nights at Freddy's (Universal) |
$1.8 M | $2.5 M | $136.2 M | -49% | 5 |
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