Weekend Box Office Predictions
October 20 - October 22, 2023
Published on October 19, 2023 at 6:00PM Pacific |
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| It's looking to be a close race at the domestic box office this weekend between Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film (in its second weekend) and Killers of the Flower Moon
(in its first weekend). |
| Last weekend AMC Theatres Distribution's release of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film debuted with a strong $92.80 million. That easily represented the largest opening weekend gross ever for a
concert film and the second largest October opening weekend of all-time (behind only 2019's Joker). High profile concert films typically experience very sharp second weekend declines and that is likely to be the case for
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film as well. On top of the built-in front-loading, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will also take a hit this weekend from losing its IMAX screens to
Killers of the Flower Moon. With that said, Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film will have some factors in its favor this weekend, including exceptional word of mouth
(the concert film received a perfect A+ rating on CinemaScore), which could help lead to repeat business, and the fact that the film didn't play from Monday through Wednesday this past week, which should help provide some extra
stabilization to this weekend's performance. Look for Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film to decline a sharp 66.1 percent this weekend for a healthy second weekend take of $31.5 million. |
| Paramount and Apple's Killers of the Flower Moon will look to get off to a solid start upon arriving in theatres this weekend. The critically acclaimed Martin Scorsese directed film stars Leonardo DiCaprio,
Robert De Niro and Lily Gladstone. Killers of the Flower Moon will be playing in 3,628 locations this weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2:30PM. Killers of the Flower Moon has an
especially long 206-minute run-time, which will limit the amount of average showtimes per location for the film this weekend (and beyond). In addition, the upcoming awards season should also lead to additional built-in back-loading for
Killers of the Flower Moon in the weeks ahead, and in general, with the exception of 2010's Shutter Island, other previous Scorsese directed films starring DiCaprio have all been driven by strong word of mouth following
relativity smaller opening weekend starts. The last collaboration between Scorsese and DiCaprio, 2013's The Wolf of Wall Street (which was also released by Paramount), had a three-day opening weekend of $18.41 million, a five-day start of
$34.20 million and went on to finish its domestic run $116.95 million. With an expensive price-tag, it will be especially important for Killers of the Flower Moon to get off to a good start this weekend. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Killers of the Flower Moon will debut with $29.0 million, with the film also having the potential to hold up very well beyond opening weekend. |
| Universal and Blumhouse's The Exorcist: Believer is coming off of a stronger than expected second weekend hold, which saw the R-rated horror sequel decline a still sizable 58.6 percent to gross
$10.98 million. While last weekend's performance was inflated somewhat by Friday being Friday the 13th, The Exorcist: Believer is likely to continue to stabilize this weekend, especially with the continued lead-up to the Halloween holiday and no
new horror films entering the marketplace this weekend. The Exorcist: Believer could decline a solid 40.8 percent this weekend to place in third with $6.5 million. |
| Paramount's PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Lionsgate's Saw X and Disney / 20th Century's The Creator all held up well last weekend. All three films are likely to hold up well again this weekend, especially since all three
will be holding onto a high percentage of their respective locations and showtimes from last weekend. Look for PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie to decline 33.2 percent to place in fourth with $4.6 million, for Lionsgate's Saw X to decrease just 29.6 percent
to follow in fifth with $4.0 million and for The Creator to slow 37.7 percent to claim sixth place with $2.7 million. |
| This weekend will also see the 30th anniversary re-issue of Disney's The Nightmare Before Christmas. The classic stop-motion animated film will be playing in 1,650 locations this weekend. That represents a slightly wider release
than the studio's recent 30th anniversary re-issue of Hocus Pocus, which had an opening weekend of $1.61 million from 1,430 locations two weeks ago. With the slightly wider release, The Nightmare Before Christmas could gross $1.8 million this
weekend to place in seventh for the frame. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour concert film (AMC Theatres Distribution) |
$31.5 M | $129.0 M | -66% | 2 |
| 2 | Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount / Apple) |
$29.0 M | $29.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | The Exorcist: Believer (Universal) |
$6.5 M | $55.0 M | -41% | 3 |
| 4 | PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie (Paramount) |
$4.6 M | $56.2 M | -33% | 4 |
| 5 | Saw X (Lionsgate) |
$4.0 M | $47.6 M | -30% | 4 |
| 6 | The Creator (Disney / 20th Century) |
$2.7 M | $36.8 M | -38% | 4 |
| 7 | The Nightmare Before Christmas (30th Anniversary re-issue) (Disney) |
$1.8 M | $1.8 M | NEW | 1 |
| 8 | The Blind (Fathom Events) |
$1.2 M | $15.8 M | -38% | 4 |
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