Weekend Box Office Predictions
September 15 - September 17, 2023
Published on September 14, 2023 at 5:45PM Pacific |
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| This weekend's only new wide release is Disney and 20th Century's A Haunting in Venice. The Kenneth Branagh directed mystery film sees Branagh return as Agatha Christie's detective Hercule Poirot for a third time, following
2017's Murder on the Orient Express and 2022's Death on the Nile. The ensemble cast for A Haunting in Venice also includes Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Kelly Reilly and Michelle Yeoh. A Haunting in Venice is playing in 3,305 locations this
weekend, is playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. There appears to be at least a bit more interest for A Haunting in Venice than there was for Death on the Nile, which opened with $12.89 million. At the same
time, A Haunting in Venice being based on a lesser known Agatha Christie novel (Hallowe'en Party) than Death on the Nile (as well as Murder on the Orient Express) will likely limit break-out potential for the film. A Haunting in Venice may
also have trouble crossing over to some horror fans, especially with The Nun II currently in the marketplace. On the average critical reviews for A Haunting in Venice have been good and are also the strongest of the three Agatha Christie adaptations
directed by Branagh. That could give A Haunting in Venice a boost this weekend and beyond. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that A Haunting in Venice will debut in first place this weekend with $17.5 million, with the film also having a good chance of
holding up well going forward in the lead-up to Halloween. |
| Warner Bros. and New Line's The Nun II is coming off of a very solid $32.60 million first place start last weekend. While The Nun II opened significantly below the $53.81 million launch of 2018's
The Nun, The Nun II hadn't been expected to duplicate the opening weekend performance of its predecessor. In addition, The Nun II is showing initial signs of being less front-loaded than The Nun was. The mixed critical reviews for
The Nun II represent a significant upgrade over the largely negative critical reviews for The Nun and the C+ CinemaScore rating for The Nun II was slightly better than the C CinemaScore rating received by The Nun. And with
the exception of Tuesday, initial daily percentage holds for The Nun II through Wednesday have all been better than those of The Nun. The Nun II will have to deal with losing its IMAX screens this weekend to
A Haunting in Venice, though The Nun also lost its IMAX screens in its second weekend (to The Predator). Whereas The Nun declined 66.1 percent in its second weekend (to gross $18.24 million), the second weekend hold for
The Nun II could be more along the lines of the 57.1 percent 2021's The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It decreased in its second weekend (to gross $10.34 million). Look for The Nun II to decline a sharp, but reasonable 58.6 percent to
place in second this weekend with $13.5 million. |
| After a healthy debut over Labor Day weekend, last weekend saw Sony's The Equalizer 3 decline a very sharp 65.3 percent to place in second with $12.00 million. That was a sharper second weekend
decline than the 61.1 percent 2018's The Equalizer 2 decreased in its second weekend (to gross $14.02 million). While The Equalizer 3 should stabilize significantly this weekend, the film will likely still
experience a larger third weekend percentage decline than that of The Equalizer 2 (a 37.5 percent decrease to gross $8.76 million). The Equalizer 3 could decrease a respectable 43.3 percent this weekend to place
in third with $6.8 million. |
| Last weekend saw Focus's My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 open in third place with $10.03 million. That was on the high end of expectations, but was also significantly below the $17.86 million start of
2016's My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 declined a very solid 37.2 percent in its second weekend to gross $11.22 million. But with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 not looking to be going
over as well with audiences as My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 did, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 facing new competition this weekend from A Haunting in Venice and overall changes in the theatrical landscape since
2016, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will likely experience a sharper second weekend decline than that of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 could decline a still respectable 46.2 percent
this weekend to take fourth place with $5.4 million. |
| Warner Bros.'s Barbie will look to round out the weekend top five for a second consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend Barbie declined 44.2 percent to gross $5.70 million. Due in part to less
new competition entering the marketplace this weekend than last weekend, Barbie should hold up better this weekend, though at the same time Barbie now being available via PVOD will likely limit the potential of this weekend's hold. A solid
decline of 35.1 percent would transfer into $3.7 million for Barbie this weekend. That would move Barbie past 2012's Marvel's The Avengers into eleventh place on the all-time unadjusted domestic list. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | A Haunting in Venice (Disney / 20th Century) |
$17.5 M | $17.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | The Nun II (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$13.5 M | $55.1 M | -59% | 2 |
| 3 | The Equalizer 3 (Sony / Columbia) |
$6.8 M | $73.2 M | -43% | 3 |
| 4 | My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (Focus) |
$5.4 M | $19.2 M | -46% | 2 |
| 5 | Barbie (Warner Bros.) |
$3.7 M | $625.9 M | -35% | 9 |
| 6 | Blue Beetle (Warner Bros.) |
$2.7 M | $67.5 M | -29% | 5 |
| 7 | Jawan (Yash Raj Films) |
$2.6 M | $12.3 M | -58% | 2 |
| 8 | Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story (Sony / Columbia) |
$2.4 M | $39.4 M | -32% | 4 |
| 9 | Oppenheimer (Universal) |
$2.2 M | $318.7 M | -29% | 9 |
| 10 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount) |
$2.0 M | $114.1 M | -28% | 7 |
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