Weekend Box Office Predictions
August 4 - August 6, 2023
Published on August 2, 2023 at 10:15PM Pacific |
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| Even with two new high profile releases entering the marketplace, Warner Bros.'s Barbie is set to lead the weekend box office with ease for a third consecutive frame. Last weekend Barbie had a fabulous second
weekend hold by declining just 42.6 percent to gross $93.01 million (which represented the seventh largest unadjusted second weekend gross of all-time). Barbie has continued to roll during the midweek, as the film's $15.30 million
Tuesday gross was down 41.2 percent from the previous Tuesday. On Thursday, Barbie is set to surpass the $400 million domestic mark and the film should have no problem zooming past the $450 million domestic mark over the upcoming
weekend. With the added presence of Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and fellow Warner Bros. release Meg 2: The Trench entering the marketplace this weekend, Barbie will be taking a larger percentage hit to its
average showtimes per location this weekend than it did last weekend, but at the same time the film is still holding onto a sizable percentage of its showtimes and also won't be coming off of a weekend performance than includes preview grosses. Look
for Barbie to decline 37.6 percent from last weekend for a first place take of $58.0 million. That would represent the eighth largest unadjusted third weekend gross of all-time. |
| Paramount's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem opened on Wednesday in 3,513 locations. The computer animated film was directed and co-written by Jeff Rowe, while Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg were co-writers and
producers of the film. There has been a fairly high level of interest around Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and that interest should only continue to grow going forward thanks in part to the film's very strong critical
reviews (which are easily the strongest ever for a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles theatrical film). Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem also looks to be going over extremely well with initial audiences, as the film has already
received a strong A rating on CinemaScore. In all likelihood, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem will be the highest grossing new film domestically to be released this August. |
| On Tuesday, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem grossed an estimated $3.85 million from preview shows that began at 2PM. That represented a promising 55 percent of the $7.00 million Tuesday preview gross
for Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One in a similar situation a few weeks ago. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One grossed $78.49 million through its first Sunday, a comparison would translate into a
five-day start of just over $43.0 million for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. As an animated film with family appeal, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem likely won't be as front-loaded towards Tuesday previews as
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One was, though at the same time Mutant Mayhem may be more Wednesday and Thursday heavy and a bit less weekend heavy than Dead Reckoning Part One was. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem will take second place over the three-day weekend with $32.5 million and will start out with $48.5 million over the film's first five days (including previews). |
| After two consecutive exceptional second place performances, Universal's Oppenheimer may place just behind Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem for third place this weekend. This past weekend, Oppenheimer
declined 43.4 percent to gross $46.71 million. Oppenheimer and Barbie experienced very similar percentage declines last weekend and that may very well be the case once again this weekend. On Tuesday, Oppenheimer grossed $6.98 million
for the day, which was down 42.2 percent from the previous Tuesday. On either Thursday or Friday, Oppenheimer will pass the $200 million domestic mark. Oppenheimer will once again be helped out this weekend by the continued high level of
demand to watch the film on IMAX screens. A very solid decline of 37.9 percent from last weekend would transfer into a third weekend gross of $29.0 million for Oppenheimer. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Warner Bros.'s Meg 2: The Trench. The follow-up to the 2018 break-out hit The Meg was directed by Ben Wheatley, sees the return of star Jason Statham and also stars Wu Jing.
Meg 2: The Trench will be playing in an estimated 3,800 locations this weekend and will have Thursday preview shows beginning at 3PM. Back in August of 2018, The Meg was a major surprise at the box office with a debut of $45.40 million, before
going on to finish its domestic run with $145.44 million. However, a sequel to The Meg likely isn't a sequel that audiences wanted all that badly, and Meg 2: The Trench could also see the Barbenheimer phenomenon limit its box office potential
more so than most other late July / early August releases. Last weekend Disney's Haunted Mansion debuted with $24.08 million and this weekend Meg 2: The Trench could very well be looking at an opening weekend performance in the same
neighborhood. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Meg 2: The Trench will debut in fourth place this weekend with $24.5 million. |
| As for some of the holdovers further down in this weekend's rankings, Disney's Haunted Mansion will likely take a hit from both of this weekend's new releases, which could help lead to Haunted Mansion declining a
sharp 57.2 percent to place in fifth with $10.3 million. Angel Studios's Sound of Freedom could decrease a solid 40.7 percent to take sixth with $7.6 million, while Paramount's Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could finally start
to stabilize this weekend by slowing just 34.0 percent to follow in seventh with $7.0 million. And after exceeding expectations with a $10.43 million start last weekend, A24's well-received Talk To Me may decline a very solid 44.4 percent for
an eighth place gross of $5.8 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Barbie (Warner Bros.) |
$58.0 M | $465.0 M | -38% | 3 |
| 2 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount) |
$32.5 M | $48.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 3 | Oppenheimer (Universal) |
$29.0 M | $229.2 M | -38% | 3 |
| 4 | Meg 2: The Trench (Warner Bros.) |
$24.5 M | $24.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 5 | Haunted Mansion (Disney) |
$10.3 M | $43.8 M | -57% | 2 |
| 6 | Sound of Freedom (Angel Studios) |
$7.6 M | $164.3 M | -41% | 5 |
| 7 | Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount) |
$7.0 M | $151.6 M | -34% | 4 |
| 8 | Talk to Me (A24) |
$5.8 M | $21.2 M | -44% | 2 |
| 9 | Elemental (Disney) |
$1.7 M | $148.9 M | -51% | 8 |
| 10 | Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Disney) |
$1.5 M | $170.6 M | -62% | 6 |
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