Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 19 - May 21, 2023
Published on May 18, 2023 at 5:45PM Pacific |
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| This weekend Universal's Fast X arrives in theatres. Fast X represents the tenth installment of the long-running Fast & Furious series (and eleventh film in the overall franchise). The action sequel was
directed by Louis Leterrier and features Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Ludacris, John Cena, Brie Larson, Jason Statham, Jason Momoa, and Charlize Theron (among others). Fast X is playing in 4,046 locations this
weekend, will be playing on IMAX screens and has Thursday preview shows beginning early at 2PM. Back in June of 2021, the previous Fast & Furious film, F9, debuted with $70.04 million. That film went on to gross
$173.01 million domestically, a total which was probably held back at least slightly by the theatrical marketplace still being in the re-opening process at the time. At the same time, there also seems to be some franchise fatigue at this point with
Fast & Furious, at least domestically, and that is likely to continue with Fast X. Critical reviews for Fast X have been mixed, as was the case with F9. With all factors considered, Fast X could be headed for an opening weekend
performance just below that of F9. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Fast X will start out in first place this weekend with $68.0 million. As has become commonplace with the franchise, Fast X is expected to be a far stronger
performer internationally. |
| Disney and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is coming off of a strong second weekend hold, which saw the well-received sequel decline 47.6 percent to gross $62.01 million. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has continued to
hold up very nicely during the midweek this week and the film's daily midweek grosses each of the past three days have actually been stronger than the daily midweek grosses of 2017's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 at the same point in its run.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 declined 46.9 percent to gross $34.65 million in its third weekend, but also had the advantage of facing weaker opening weekend competition in the face of Alien: Covenant
(which debuted with $36.16 million). With that said, even in facing stronger competition in the form of Fast X (and losing IMAX screens to Fast X in the process), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may still have enough momentum to have a
stronger third weekend hold than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 had. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 could decline a very respectable 43.6 percent this weekend to take second with $35.0 million. |
| Last weekend Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie declined 32.0 percent to place in second with $12.61 million. This weekend The Super Mario Bros. Movie could hold up
stronger than it did last weekend, due in part to the film looking to hold onto a higher percentage of its showtimes per location this weekend than it did last weekend and in part from the film not receiving a Mother's Day boost after
all last weekend. And while Fast X will no doubt provide new competition for The Super Mario Bros. Movie to deal with; at the same time The Super Mario Bros. Movie could get a small boost from playing with
Fast X at some drive-ins this weekend. A decline of just 23.9 percent would transfer into a third place take of $9.6 million for The Super Mario Bros. Movie this weekend. |
| Focus's Book Club: The Next Chapter debuted in third last weekend with a lackluster $6.68 million. Back in May of 2018, the original Book Club declined 25.8 percent to gross $10.07 million in its
second weekend (though that was with the aid of Memorial Day weekend). Earlier this year, 80 For Brady decreased 54.3 percent in its second weekend to take in $5.80 million (though that was in the face of Super Bowl LVII).
Book Club: The Next Chapter should experience a second weekend decline somewhere in between the declines of those two films, but will more likely see a decline closer to that of 80 For Brady, especially with last weekend's
performance for Book Club: The Next Chapter having been inflated by Mother's Day. Book Club: The Next Chapter could drop 48.3 percent this weekend to land in fourth with $3.5 million. |
| Last weekend Warner Bros. and New Line's Evil Dead Rise declined a olid 36.7 percent to take fourth with $3.72 million. With the new competition from Fast X, Evil Dead Rise will likely fall off
at least a bit more this weekend than it did last weekend. Evil Dead Rise could decline 40.9 percent this weekend to round out this weekend's top five with $2.2 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Fast X (Universal) |
$68.0 M | $68.0 M | NEW | 1 |
| 2 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney) |
$35.0 M | $269.8 M | -44% | 3 |
| 3 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) |
$9.6 M | $549.0 M | -24% | 7 |
| 4 | Book Club: The Next Chapter (Focus) |
$3.5 M | $13.7 M | -48% | 2 |
| 5 | Evil Dead Rise (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$2.2 M | $63.9 M | -41% | 5 |
| 6 | John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) |
$1.30 M | $185.3 M | -38% | 9 |
| 7 | Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) |
$1.25 M | $18.6 M | -50% | 4 |
| 8 | Hypnotic (Ketchup Entertainment) |
$1.00 M | $4.3 M | -58% | 2 |
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