Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 12 - May 14, 2023
Published on May 11, 2023 at 6:15PM Pacific |
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| Disney and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is set to easily lead the domestic box office for a second consecutive frame this weekend. Last weekend Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opened towards the
higher end of consensus expectations with $118.41 million. While films within the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) have mostly been experiencing larger second weekend declines in more recent years, on the other hand 2014's
Guardians of the Galaxy and 2017's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 experienced similar respective second weekend declines of 55.3 percent and 55.5 percent. Thus far Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which received a strong A
rating on CinemaScore, has been experiencing stronger midweek holds than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 experienced during its first week of release. That is obviously a very good sign for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 heading into
the weekend, though it is also possible that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may prove to be a bit more midweek heavy than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was. Furthermore, in comparison to the previous two
Guardians of the Galaxy films, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will be dealing with significantly weaker new competition this weekend, which should also provide a bit of a second weekend boost for
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will decline a very respectable 52.3 percent to gross $56.5 million this weekend. |
| Universal, Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Bros. Movie will look to remain in second place this weekend. The Super Mario Bros. Movie is likely to re-stabilize this weekend after declining a sharp 54.6 percent last
weekend to gross $18.55 million. In addition to continuing to benefit from good word of mouth and holding onto a high percentage of locations and showtimes, The Super Mario Bros. Movie will also benefit this weekend from the opening weekend of
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 now being in the past and could also get a bit of a Mother's Day boost on Sunday. A decrease of just 23.5 percent would transfer into $14.2 million for The Super Mario Bros. Movie this weekend. |
| The weekend's top new release should be Focus' Book Club: The Next Chapter. Like 2018's Book Club; Book Club: The Next Chapter was directed by Bill Holderman and stars Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda,
Candice Bergen and Mary Steenburgen. Book Club: The Next Chapter is playing in 3,508 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 5PM. Book Club debuted with $13.58 million in May of 2018 and thanks to very strong holding power
finished its run with $68.57 million. There doesn't seem to be as much demand for Book Club: The Next Chapter this time around and that may be due at least in part to the recent release of 80 For Brady back in February, which also starred Fonda and
opened with $12.70 million, before going on to finish its run with $39.33 million. Critical reviews for Book Club: The Next Chapter have been mixed, but that was also the case for the original Book Club.
Book Club: The Next Chapter should also get a Mother's Day boost on Sunday. BoxOfficeReport is predicting that Book Club: The Next Chapter will debut with $9.5 million this weekend, before potentially holding up well in the weeks ahead. |
| As for some of this weekend's other holdovers, Warner Bros. and New Line's well-received Evil Dead Rise could decline just 33.7 percent this weekend to place in fourth with $3.9 million. And with the aid of
Mother's Day, Lionsgate's Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret could decrease a slim 16.8 percent to round out this weekend's top five with $2.7 million. |
| Also opening in wide release this weekend is Ketchup Entertainment's Hypnotic. The Robert Rodriguez directed action-thriller stars Ben Affleck and also features Alice Braga, J. D. Pardo, Jackie Earle Haley and William Fichtner. Hypnotic is
playing in 2,118 locations this weekend and has Thursday preview shows beginning at 6PM. Critical reviews for Hypnotic have been mixed (more so negative than positive). As a lower profile release, expectations are modest for
Hypnotic, but Affleck and Rodriquez could help the film bring in at least some moviegoers this weekend. Look for Hypnotic to debut in sixth place with $2.3 million. |
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Predictions for this weekend's top 8 films at the domestic box office.
| Rank | Film (Distributor) | Weekend Gross |
Total Gross |
% Change |
Week # |
| 1 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney) |
$56.5 M | $208.6 M | -52% | 2 |
| 2 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) |
$14.2 M | $537.1 M | -23% | 6 |
| 3 | Book Club: The Next Chapter (Focus) |
$9.5 M | $9.5 M | NEW | 1 |
| 4 | Evil Dead Rise (Warner Bros. / New Line) |
$3.9 M | $60.3 M | -34% | 4 |
| 5 | Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) |
$2.7 M | $16.7 M | -17% | 3 |
| 6 | Hypnotic (Ketchup Entertainment) |
$2.3 M | $2.3 M | NEW | 1 |
| 7 | John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) |
$1.9 M | $182.9 M | -19% | 8 |
| 8 | Love Again (Sony / Screen Gems) |
$1.4 M | $4.8 M | -41% | 2 |
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